Cameron To Have Highest Constituency Vote Share
David Cameron to enjoy highest constituency voteshare of major leaders while Natalie Bennett predicted to poll the leastDavid Cameron is favourite to win the biggest percentage voteshare of the major party leaders (or selected representatives) in the respective constituencies for which they are standing to be MPs, based on our Voteshare Index. Cameron is currently trading at 30-33 on Voteshare Index. The leader with the highest voteshare in their constituency makes up 50, with 30 for second, 20 for third, 10 for fourth and all others 0. The Conservatives have dominated Witney since it became a constituency in 1983, with just two years under Labour after Shaun Woodward defected from the Tories to Labour in 1999. Cameron won 58.8% of the voteshare in 2010, up from 49.3% in 2005. Scottish National Party leader Nicola Sturgeon isn’t running for MP, so Sporting Index has used Alex Salmond, candidate for Gordon, instead for the purposes of this market.
The firebrand is second favourite on the index, quoted at 28-31. Salmond took 41.4% of the Gordon vote in 2007 and, with the SNP predicted to win 49 seats by the spread betting firm, he trades above Ed Miliband, who is at 25-28. The Labour leader polled 47.3% of the vote in 2010, but it was the third straight general election Labour’s share had dropped in the constituency – down 22.5% on 1997. Respect Party candidate George Galloway ties with Plaid Cymru runner Hywel Williams (Leanne Wood isn’t standing) on 8-11, ahead of embattled Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg, who’s just 5-7.
Despite the United Kingdom Independence Party tipped to win three seats by Sporting Index, Nigel Farage is only trading at 1-3, a nose ahead of Green Party leader Natalie Bennett, who is expected to pick up the lowest vote share. The Holborn and St Pancras Constituency candidate is priced at 0-0.5 on the index. Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: “Witney have never voted for anyone other than a Tory, so David Cameron’s seat looks about as safe as they come.
Our traders expect him to poll more than all the other major party figures, although not by a landslide. “There is no sign the SNP’s rise is slowing down north of the border and Alex Salmond should be next best. He may yet even spring a small surprise in this market with Labour and the Lib Dems polling so poorly in Scotland.”