Champions League Preview
This is the week when the elite of Europe line up for battle, whilst the same can be said of spread bettors throughout the land trying to take on the Sporting Index traders. There are countless potential stories to come out of the last 32 of the Champions League this year with Messrs Mourinho, Ranieri and Ramos taking on Ferguson, Hiddink and Benitez. Spread bettors will be looking for as many clues as possible from previous matches and tournaments, so the obvious place to start looking is the Sporting Index outright index, where the winner receives 100 points, runner-up 75, losing semi-finalist 50, losing quarter-finalist 25 and last 16 just 10. Barcelona are the clear favourites with a spread of 48-51 and buyers will be hoping they repeat their 2005/06 win against Arsenal. Spread sellers shouldn't be too despondent though, as they only managed a semi-final appearance last year and in two of the past four seasons they were knocked out in the last 32.
The spread betting public will be well aware that the three heavyweight nations of European football - Italy, Spain and England - have dominated this competition since its inception in 1956. All three countries have been successful 11 times and if the Sporting Index traders are correct, it looks like the winner will come from one of these countries yet again. Incredibly, 11 of the top 12 clubs in the outright index hail from these countries and they have won eight of the last 10 tournaments. Chelsea are next best in the market with a spread of 41-44, whilst Man United are just slightly below at 38-41. Buyers of the reigning champions on the spreads have a couple of reasons to be nervous, as Ferguson has only managed to defeat his adversary Jose Mourinho once in 12 contests, whilst the last British side to register back-to-back European Cup wins was Liverpool in 1981 and 1982. In fact, Milan were the last team to do so in '89 and '90, as the tournament has become far more open in recent years - benefiting spread betting punters greatly.
Those who fancy Chelsea may be encouraged with their spread of 41-44 thanks to the positive start the team has made under Guus Hiddink. The Dutchman is proven in Europe's top competition, winning it for PSV in 1988 and on the whole Chelsea have been the most consistent side in the tournament recently. Four of the last five seasons would have seen spread betting buyers finish with a profit thanks to three semi-final appearances and last year's trip to Moscow - the club's first ever final. Liverpool are another English side that spread bettors have latched onto after their successful 2005 final, followed by the runners up spot in 2007 and semi-final appearance last year. Sporting Index have a lower spread for the Merseysiders of 29-32, which will appeal to some buyers, especially when they hear that there have only ever been three finals at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome, with the Reds winning twice.
Arsene Wenger has had a tough season and those who like a spread bet must have found Arsenal a very difficult side to gauge this season. They are forecast to do the worst out of the English sides in this year's tournament with Sporting Index (spread 28-31), but they did make it to the final three years ago. That was their first ever appearance in a European Cup Final, but they will have to take on Roma in the first knockout round this year. The Italians come to the Emirates on Tuesday and the only previous time these sides have met in the Champions League in North London, it ended 1-1. That would put Roma in the driving seat, but Gunners spread supporters will be encouraged that the only time their side have taken on Roma in Rome they won 3-1 thanks to a Thierry Henry hat-trick.
As previously mentioned, spread bettors will be well aware of the Indian sign Mourinho has held over Ferguson since the infamous knee slide at Old Trafford in 2004. Six wins to one from 12 games is a pretty substantial lead, but United's only visit to the San Siro against Inter was a 1-1 draw in the quarter finals in 1999. That followed a 2-0 win at Old Trafford and eventually saw them crowned European Champions in Barcelona in May. Followers of United on the spreads have the added bonus that seven of the past eight finalists had won their group and therefore played away in the first leg of the first knockout round. However, spread sellers of the Red Devils will remember that Mourinho did manage to win the whole shebang for Porto when they defeated United in the last 32 having played the first leg at home.
Liverpool have the unenviable task of traveling to the Bernabeu on Wednesday night and spread punters looking to oppose the Spaniards will be alarmed that Madrid have now scored 10 goals in their last two domestic games. However, they have never scored against Liverpool as the sides have only met once before - with the Reds winning 1-0 in the European Cup Final in 1981. Spread bettors who fancy Liverpool to progress will be encouraged that Benitez has an excellent record against teams from his homeland in the Champions League. He has met them five times in group and knockout action as Liverpool boss, winning three and drawing two.
In the final chapter of an eventful week of European football, Chelsea come face-to-face with another of their former employees in Juventus' Claudio Ranieri on Tuesday night. These sides have never met each other before, but followers of Chelsea on the spreads will be concerned that the only time they have qualified for the knockout stages in recent years by finishing runners-up in their group, they went on to be knocked out by Barcelona in the first knockout round. In saying that, spread supporters have more reason to be cheerful as their only recent games in the Champions League against Italian opposition ended with two wins against Lazio.
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