THE must win game
English spread punters can be entirely forgiven for not looking forward to the crucial match between Fabio Capello's team and their final Group C opponents Slovenia. On paper, one would expect England to easily overcome the side ranked 25th by FIFA, but spread bettors know better than anyone that this tournament has been generous with the unexpected. The Three Lions are still strong favourites to win the group however, with a group index spread of 14-15.5pts.
Spread buyers and sellers do not have to look too far back for the last meeting between the sides as they faced each other in a friendly in September. Buyers of England's supremacy might hope for a better result than the 2-1 victory to England then but will of course be dismayed at England's disappointing form in South Africa so far. Spread sellers will also point out that the September match came in the middle of England's incredibly efficient qualifying campaign, when supporters at home held genuine thoughts of ending 44 years of hurt.
Sellers of the total goals spread on the match will be well aware that England have only managed one goal in their first two matches but will also be encouraged by the stats from the 2010 World Cup as a whole. In the first 10 days of competition, there were eight 1-0 results and there have been an average of 1.97 goals per game, the lowest ever average at World Cups. Slovenia have been more successful in front of goal than their opponents however and spread buyers would love a repeat of the 2-2 result against the USA.
Wayne Rooney is likely to come under particular scrutiny after two quiet games and, subsequent to the goalless draw with Algeria, his on-camera outburst directed towards the fans. His player performance spread market was settled at 31, way below Steven Gerrard and Gareth Barry, who each made up 73 on the spread. Robert Koren, Slovenia's captain and former West Bromwich Albion player made up 60 in his match against USA but a goal against Algeria contributed to a fantastic total of 82 in that match. Sellers of his performance spread for his final group match will know that this goal was only the fifth of his international career however and that the superior technical ability of England's midfielders could make it tough for Koren to get forward.
Those interested in buying or selling the time of the first match goal will be keen to know that the average time of England's first goal in qualifying is 31.1 minutes. However, that goes against Slovenia's qualifying record of first conceding on average in the 75th minute. Goal minutes spread buyers will be desperate for England to rediscover their qualifying form which saw them put five past Croatia for a spread make-up of 301 minutes.
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