The Lions Day Of Reckoning
The winning margins have not been quite as large as some spread bettors had hoped, and there has been a few close moments to terrify others, but Ian McGeechan has done what he set out to do, and has earned six wins from six-warm up matches. But for Rugby Union fans and spread punters, The British & Irish Lions tour of South Africa only really gets going on Saturday, as the tourists return to Durban to face the Springboks at the 52,000 capacity Kings Park Stadium.
The Springboks go into the match as favourites according to Sporting Index's rugby traders, unsurprisingly to most, and certainly to buyers of South Africa's supremacy spread. Since being crowned World Champions in Paris in 2007, those same spread bettors will have witnessed the Boks demonstrate their awesome power, most memorably in subjecting England to a record 42-6 loss at Twickenham in November. However, sellers of South Africa's supremacy spread would prefer to focus on the way in which the team limped to a 14-10 victory over Scotland at Murrayfield a week previous and back-to-back defeats in their home country to Australia and New Zealand in August 2008.
The Australia defeat was the last Test the Springboks played in Durban, the venue of Saturday's clash, and the team's past record against the Lions there should hold interest for buyers and sellers of the Lions' win index (where 25pts are awarded for the win plus the number of points scored by the team) and the supremacy spread. The Lions have played South Africa twice before in Durban, in the second Tests on the 1962 and 1997 tours. On both occasions the winning margin was three points � the Springboks emerging victorious in '62, the Lions doing so 12 years ago. Spread bettors might need to look elsewhere for a convincing argument as to which team will come out on top, although looking at previous first Tests in South Africa can only add to the doubts of buyers and sellers of either side's spreads � of the six series against South Africa, the Lions have won three of the opening Tests.
With the chopping and changing of the line-up, the warm-up fixtures can provide only a rough guide to the Lions' likely Test performances. Sellers of the aggregate SA/Lions supremacy spread for the three-Test series at 25pts will be pleased to know that the average supremacy in the six warm-ups is 21.5pts to the Lions. But spread buyers will certainly be aware that the Lions have suffered as a result of a brutal game against the Southern Kings and that the supremacy average is somewhat skewed by the 74-10 demolition of the Golden Lions at the start of June. In their last three tour matches the Lions put on 85 points, and buyers of their team points spread for the Test series, at 49-53pts, will be hoping the Lions can overcome the power of the Springboks to at least get close to that figure in the three Tests. Sellers of the total tries spread for the Tests at 12 should note that exactly 12 have been scored in the last three tour games.
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