All Four for the Quarters
A week of high tension for all football spread betting fans starts with the second legs of the last 16 of the Champions League. All four English clubs have a decent chance of progressing following three wins and a draw from the opening four games. Sporting Index still have Barcelona as their 52-55 point favourites in their win index (100 points for the winners, 75 for the runners-up, 50 for the losing semi-finalists, 25 for the losing quarter-finalists and 10 for the last 16), despite only managing a draw at Lyon in the first leg. The big movers on the spreads were Bayern Munich (42-45), but they are only second favourites at the moment thanks to their 5-0 demolition of Sporting in Portugal. Man United are next in the betting with a spread of 41-44, the same as Chelsea, but United need to be careful they don't concede an away goal against arch-nemesis Jose Mourinho.
Tuesday's big game for English spread punters is probably Liverpool against Real Madrid at Anfield. Madrid had been in excellent form in the league prior to the first leg, but suffered a disappointing 1-0 defeat against Rafa Benitez. That is now two 1-0 victories for the Reds in their only two games against Madrid and Benitez once again showed how he is the spread bettors' friend when it comes to the Champions League. Juande Ramos's side has to win, but the followers of them on the spreads will be concerned by recent trips to England. They last won on these shores in 2003 at Old Trafford and have lost three of their four trips since then. It has been a risky spread betting strategy to oppose Liverpool in the Champions League in recent seasons and although they lost 1-0 to Barcelona in 2007, that was enough to qualify.
Out of the English teams, spread bettors may agree with the Sporting Index traders that Arsenal face the toughest battle for progression, with their outright spread for the tournament at 32-35, behind each of United, Chelsea and Liverpool. Spread bettors who are doubtful of an Arsenal win but think the London club will still clinch a spot in the next round should look to Sporting Index's qualification match bets (10pts for qualification, plus 3pts for every goal won by in each leg). With the Arsenal/Roma qualifying spread at 4-6pts, buyers will want to see plenty of away goals at the Stadio Olimpico, but will not be too disappointed if the match ends in a draw. Although sellers of the spread who are predicting a convincing Roma win against a team who have, by their own standards, had a disappointing domestic season might be concerned by the recent history of these clubs in Europe. Roma have been shown the door in European competition by an English club in each of the past three seasons (Middlesbrough triumphed over Roma in the UEFA Cup in 05/06, Man Utd eliminated them at this stage of the Champions League in last two years), while Arsenal have not lost in their last four visits to Italy, with three wins and a draw.
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