Sticky Tie for Toffees
Some mouth-watering FA Cup fixtures to delight football spread bettors this weekend, the pick of the bunch arguably Everton v Aston Villa at Goodison Park. With a home advantage the Toffees are slightly favoured by Sporting Index at 12-13.5 in the win index compared to Villas spread at 10-11.5 points. Considering their success in the league under David Moyes, buyers of Evertons win index or their supremacy at 0.3 may be surprised by their relatively poor record when meeting Premiership sides in the FA Cup. They have lost six of ten (W1-D3-L6) since winning the tournament in 1995, however, those same buyers may point to their progress at this stage of the Cup - of their last five games in the fifth round, theyve lost just once, to eventual finalists Manchester United.
Likewise, buyers of Aston Villa, pointing to their lofty position in the League might not be aware of the Villains FA Cup form. The last time they progressed at the expense of a top-flight side in the Cup was in 2000. Their opposition, buyers and sellers of the supremacy spread will note, was Everton. Since then, Villa have lost seven and drawn twice.
The total goals spread for this game promises to attract plenty of interest both before kick-off and in-play. Buyers of total goals, currently at 2.5, and total goal minutes (115 - 125) will be delighted to learn that in the eight games between these two since 2005, 27 goals have been scored, an average of 3.4, although sellers will point out that three of those eight games featured two goals or less. Spread bettors may also remember, as indeed the Sporting Index traders do, the astonishing events last time these sides met, in December on Merseyside. Going into the final minute, Aston Villa led 2-1 before a Lescott equaliser in injury time only to see Villas lead restored seconds later with an Ashley Young goal at the other end. The final total goal minutes make-up ended at 265!
Not many teams can claim to have beaten Manchester United this season, but the Red Devils will be up against such a team in the fifth round of the FA Cup as they take on Derby at Pride Park. Buyers of Derbys win index and sellers of the supremacy spread will be hoping for a repeat of the Carling cup fixture in January, but taking a look at Man Utds five away matches against Championship opponents in the FA Cup, buyers of Man Utds win index will feel hopeful of a profit. All five were won, four of them with a United clean sheet.
Spread bettors on Sporting Indexs total goals market might well use this along with Uniteds last two results (both one-nil wins) to suggest a sell of goals, but they would be wise to consider previous matches when United have faced such teams. In the Premier League era, they have not lost, home or away, to a second-tier side and eight games have ended with at least three goals. Derby have reached the fifth round four times, and three matches have seen four goals or more - which should further encourage those buyers on the total goals spread.
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