Cheltenham: Day Two
The format for the second day of the Cheltenham Festival changed last year when the National Hunt Chase was moved to the first race of the day, but the first really big spread betting heat will be the Neptune Investment Novices' Hurdle. Those playing the jockey and trainer index markets on the spreads will undoubtedly look at the Willie Mullins-trained and Ruby Walsh-ridden Quel Esprit. The duo have won the last two renewals, but those spread bettors looking to be against them will be happy to learn that no jockey or trainer has ever won this race three years in a row since it was first run in 1971.
Many spread bettors like to look at the trends when it comes to the big races and all of the last ten winners have been aged five or six. The Irish have dominated in recent years, winning four of the past seven renewals, and spread SP sellers absolutely loved this event in the late 1990's when all four short-priced favourites from 1997 to 2000 were successful. However, last year's winner, Mikael D'Haguenet, was the first market leader to win since then and there have been four double-priced victories in the 'Noughties'.
The Willie Mullins-Ruby Walsh road show burst further into life in last year's RSA Chase when Cooldine became the easiest winner of the race since Looks Like Trouble in 1999. The seven-year-old romped home 16 lengths clear of his pursuers and became the eighth seven-year-old to win the race in the last decade. Spread sellers of SP's have enjoyed this race in recent years, with the last three favourites obliging, but it is worth bearing in mind that there have been 14/1, 16/1, 25/1 and 33/1 winners in the past ten years.
Nicky Henderson holds a very strong hand and Long Run looks likely to go off at the head of the Sporting Index win index. He's been tremendously impressive since coming over from France, winning over both 2 and 3 miles. However, spread bettors looking to get him beat will be greatly encouraged that only one five-year-old has won this race since 1950.
Paul Nicholls was champion trainer at the Cheltenham Festival again last year and there will be many spread bettors following him in again this time around. His first big chance is probably with Master Minded in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, who will be attempting to make history by becoming only the second horse ever to win this race three times.
There have only been three successful favourites in the past decade, but although that should give SP spread buyers a reason to be cheerful, 26 of the last 28 winners have been single figure prices. The winning distance market is an interesting one for spread bettors as in recent years it has generally been won by a wide margin. Master Minded pulverised the field by 19 lengths two years ago and five of the past seven winners have won by 7 lengths or more.
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