Denman's Back!
The National Hunt season is now in full flow and week after week there is top quality action for spread bettors to get stuck into, as the days rattle down to the Cheltenham Festival in March. The Hennessy Gold Cup is one of the flag bearers of the jumps season and there was a big shock for most punters last year - although perhaps not Sporting Index's SP spread buyers - when Madison du Berlais won for the Pipe team at 25/1. That was the biggest priced winner in the past decade and was obviously a big blow for SP spread sellers, especially as Air Force One was second at 5/1.
Denman was awesome when winning this race off top weight and a mark of 161 in 2007 and he will become the first horse since Arkle to win the race twice if he is successful this time off 174. The spread betting public will more than likely be divided on the former Gold Cup winner, as it would take one hell of a performance to lumber such a burden around the Berkshire track. His followers on the spreads will be happy with the way the race has turned out in recent years though, as the general make up of the winner has changed dramatically over the past 10 years.
Between 1991-2000 the Hennessy nearly always went to those at the bottom end of the handicap and only Suny Bay in 1997 carried more than 10st 8lbs successfully to victory in that time period. He built up a massive fan base in spread betting circles and the 11st 8lbs he shouldered was the best weight carrying performance in this race since Burrough Hill Lad's 1984 win off 12st. However, things have changed since the turn of the Millennium and spread bettors no longer have to write off those at the head of the weights. Since 2001, only one horse has won off less than 10st 12lbs (Celestial Gold, 2004, 10st 5lbs) and all of the last four have carried 11st 4lbs or more, with two top weights winning.
Denman's presence in the field could mean that only one or two other horses carry 11st or more, so if spread punters think the big weight trend is going to continue, they will probably end up buying the big bruiser on Sporting Index's win index.
There will obviously be plenty of SP players on the spreads following last year's shock, but there have been three winning favourites since 1999, although none since 2004. That said, four of the past six winners have been priced between 9/4 and 13/2, so spread sellers do have a few reasons to be cheerful.
The winning distance spread at Newbury will obviously depend on who lines up against Denman and also the weather. The Hennessy has only been run once on heavy ground in the past decade which might make some spread punters think there have been some close finishes. That isn't really the case though, as only once in the last 10 renewals has there been a winning margin of less than a length and a half. Denman routed his field by 11 in 2007, whilst Strong Flow demolished his opposition by 14 lengths in 2003.
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