Champions Day, Newmarket
There will be added media interest in this month's Champions Day fixture at Newmarket, as it will be re-directed to Ascot next year for Britain's richest ever raceday. HQ will continue to hold some of the key juvenile contests and spread bettors will be intrigued to see this year's Dewhurst Stakes. Frankel's performance in the Royal Lodge at Ascot last time was breathtaking, but he could face similarly impressive recent winners, Dream Ahead and Saamidd, at Newmarket. Spread punters may find it difficult to separate these three hugely promising individuals, but may also be interested to learn that Irish-trained horses have won the last four runnings of this race and that the last two winners have been priced at 20/1 and 33/1.
Henry Cecil has gone on record as saying that Frankel is the best two-year-old he has trained since Wollow, who won the Dewhurst in 1975. Most spread bettors would associate the master of Warren Place with fillies, but he has won this classic trial twice and Frankel has won his last two races by a combined 23 lengths. Dream Ahead won the Middle Park by 9 lengths and Saamidd has won his two career starts by a combined 9 1/4 lengths. The winning distance market in this race will be very interesting and if any horse wins comfortably they will be a very short-priced favourite for the Guineas. However, distance buyers on the spreads won't be encouraged by the last two winning margins - a neck and a nose. In fact, there has only been one winning margin of more than 2 lengths in the past decade - Shamardal in 2004.
The Champion Stakes is one of the top middle-distance races in the world and Twice Over could make it a day to remember for Henry Cecil. Spread bettors will remember the son of Observatory winning this race last year and he will attempt to emulate Alborada, who won it for Sir Mark Prescott in 1998 and 1999. There have only been two winning favourites in the past decade, but SP spread sellers will be happier to hear that six of the past ten winners have been 8/1 or shorter.
Three-year-olds have a decent record in the race, winning four of the past six renewals, and France have won the race twice in the past four years. New Approach was the most impressive recent winner in 2008 when he powered clear to win by 8 lengths. That said, spread sellers of winning distances will be hoping for a repeat of Literato's win in 2007 when he came home a short-head in front of Eagle Mountain.
The second leg of the Autumn Double, the Cesarewitch, is a true test of the flat stayer and coming on the back of Caracciola's success at 50/1 in 2008, Darley Sun gave spread sellers of SP's a fillip last year, scooting clear to win as the 9/2 favourite. He was the second jolly to win in the past four years, but nine of the past 13 winners have returned between 10/1 and 16/1.
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