Dante Festival Preview
A number of the key trials have now taken place for the Oaks and Derby, but horseracing spread betting fans would be quite within their rights to say that they've done nothing but muddy the waters. Henry Cecil is the master of training fillies, but his Timepiece finished a disappointing second in Lingfield's Oaks Trial. Spread bettors now look ahead to the York Dante festival and the fillies trial, the Musidora Stakes. This was won by Sariska 12 months ago who went on to taste glory at Epsom and, in doing so, became the sixth filly to complete the double.
Cecil looks likely to have the favourite on the Sporting Index win index in the unbeaten Aviate, who will be aiming to give the trainer his ninth win in the race, although he's only won it once in the past 12 years. In fairness, most spread bettors would probably acknowledge that this year's renewal doesn't look the hottest, but the same could have been said before Sariska sluiced up last year. Aidan O'Brien sends over Cabaret, who is officially the highest rated in the line-up, but this is one of the few big races over here that the trainer is yet to win.
The Musidora has been a good race for SP spread sellers in recent years, even though only four of the past 10 favourites have won. There has only been one winner bigger than 4/1 in the past decade, Cassis who won at 16/1 for Pat Eddery and Jeremy Noseda in 2003. The last two winners both had a prep race, but spread punters shouldn't disregard those horses that are making their seasonal reappearance, as four of the past 10 winners have won the race doing exactly that. Winning distance buyers on the spreads have actually done quite well in this race recently, with the last two victors winning by a combined 8 3/4 lengths, while two other winners in the past six years won by 5 and 6 lengths.
If the Musidora is the key trial for the Oaks, there is no doubt that the Dante Stakes is the key trial for the Derby. Authorized was the last to complete the double in 2007, but spread bettors will be interested to learn that nine horses have achieved the feat since the race was established in 1958. Aidan O'Brien won his third Dante last year with Black Bear Island, something of a surprise to most spread punters at 12/1. He looks set to rely on Cape Blanco and Viscount Nelson this time round in his quest for another Derby victory.
Between 2005-2007 sellers of SP's on the spreads loved this race, with all three jollies bolting up in that period. It was also good for winning distance spread buyers as well, as Authorized won by 4 lengths in 2007 and Septimus came home 8 lengths clear the year before. However, in the past two years, spread bettors who have gone against both of those strategies have done better. The last two winners have been priced at 12/1 and 10/1 respectively, while both winning distances were a head.
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