All Or Nothing For Geech's Men
Saturday's 26-21 defeat to South Africa in Durban was the Lions' sixth successive Test defeat, and it has left them side with a huge mountain to climb. Sellers of South Africa's series supremacy spread, at 16-19 (10pts to the series winner, plus 5pts per Test won), will be relying on Lions coach Ian McGeechan's vast experience to help turn things around. The worrying news for buyers of the spread is that only once in the last twenty years, against Australia in 1989, have the Lions lost the first Test and recovered to win the series. Sporting Index's traders are obviously also aware that in 100 years, the Lions have never recovered to win a series against the Springboks after going 1-0 down - the Lions 2-1 series win correct score index can be bought at just 8 (25pts for correct series winner, 50pts bonus if score is correct).
It is a statistic that will cause concern to buyers of the Lions win index for the match, but hope can be found in other historical trends which favour the Lions. Both buyers of the Lions win index, and sellers of the match supremacy spread will be pleased that the Lions have won three of their last four Tests at Saturday's venue, Loftus Versfeld, including a resounding 28-9 on the unbeaten tour of 1974. Keen spread bettors may also remember the second Test on the last tour to South Africa in 1997, when Jeremy Guscott's incredible drop-goal sealed the series for the tourists.
Certain spread bettors may like to focus on the significance of the second Test match of the tour, after the Lion's opposition have had a chance to gel. Spread bettors looking at the match supremacy will note that the second Tests in the three previous South Africa tours, winning margins have been 3, 7 and 19, with an average of just fewer than 10pts separating the teams. However, buyers of the supremacy spread will be pleased that the Lions experienced much heavier defeats in the second Tests of the two most recent tours, of 30 (against New Zealand in 2005) and 21pts (Australia, 2001). In these matches, the Lions scored just 32pts in total compared to 83pts scored between their respective hosts. Sellers of South Africa's match supremacy on Saturday will be dismayed at the average supremacy in these games of 25.5.
A total of five tries were scored in the first Test in Durban and buyers of the total tries spread will be hoping for at least as many this week. Buyers of the total points spread will also hope for a similar afternoon to last Saturday, when 47pts were put on the board. That the game will be played at an altitude of roughly 5000 feet should please sellers of the Lions win index spread. They may conclude that the thin air will favour the Springboks' strong kicking game, while buyers of any of Sporting Index's kicking metres spread shall be willing the long range efforts home.
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