Borat XI v England
England will seek to secure qualification for the 2010 World Cup finals in South Africa with two competitive matches over the next couple of weeks. Capello's side, who currently lead Group Six with a maximum 15 points, first travel to Kazakhstan in the hope of continuing their 100% record in this qualifying campaign. England are heavy favourites according to their win index spread with Sporting Index at 22-23.5pts (25pts for a win) and an Eng/Kaz supremacy spread of 2.3-2.5. But sellers of the supremacy spread will be aware that both first-team goalkeepers David James and Ben Foster have been ruled out through injury, although perhaps neither likely replacement Paul Robinson nor buyers of England's win index should be too concerned. Kazakhstan have only managed to score six goals in their five opening matches but have shipped 16.
Competitively the Three Lions have been extremely impressive and during the qualifying campaign have scored 16 goals in five matches, at an average of just over three goals per game. This will come as great news for buyers of total goals, with a spread set at 3.3-3.5. The defensive line, led by John Terry, has been equally impressive and has conceded just four goals in five games, which bodes well for buyers of the supremacy spread, but perhaps buyers of total goals would like to see Ashley Cole and Rio Ferdinand sit it out on Saturday - both have been rested in training this week.
Spread punters might refer to the match between the sides in October which finished 5-1 to England, but perhaps they will also remember the match was goalless at half-time. Under the stewardship of Capello England have generally been slow to start matches and of the 16 goals scored by England thus far only three have been scored before half-time. A similar unfolding of Saturday's match may open up a number of in-play opportunities, particularly on the total goals spreads and goal minutes markets.
Those spread bettors looking to buy goal minutes from the start, at 177, will be encouraged that the previous meeting produced a huge 436 minutes make-up (!!!), thanks in no small part to goals scored in the 76th, 86th and 90th minutes. Buyers of the spread should also note that the minimum goal minutes make-up in England's qualifiers so far has been 104 in their opening match against Andorra, but has averaged just less than 240 minutes across all of their five qualifiers. Spread punters scared by the volatility of this exciting market might prefer to look at Sporting Index's bookings index spreads, currently set at 30-33 (10pts for a yellow card, 25pts for a red). Sellers of England's team bookings spread at 10pts will be pleased that England have been on their best behaviour in qualifying and have only received four yellow cards so far.
Bill Esdaile of Square in the Air Communications, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Sporting Index.
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