ENGLAND OUT FOR SPRINGBOK REVENGE
It’s amazing to think that just 36 days after being thumped 36-0 by the South Africans at the Stade de France, the English are heading back to that very same venue for the final. Sporting Index are predicting a much closer affair this time round, but still reckon that the Springboks will emerge victorious by a margin of between 8 and 10 points. Worryingly for England, no team that has lost a game in the Group stages has ever gone on to lift the trophy. However, no Southern Hemisphere side has won four matches in a row against England since 1973 and you guessed it, South Africa have had their four!
Buyers of South African supremacy at 10 points will be encouraged by the average winning margin of 31.5 points over the side’s last four meetings. Yet, sellers are most likely to be spurred on by the fact that final’s tends to be very tight affairs and the widest winning margin ever was 23 points when Australia beat France in 1999. In fact, in two of the last three finals the teams were equal after 80 minutes and the game had to go to extra time.
Both teams have Final experience. The Springboks hold a 100% record from their one appearance against New Zealand in 1995, while England have won one and lost one to Australia. Sellers of total points in the game at 36 will take heart from the fact that the average total points score in those three finals was just 25 before extra time. If England were to win the final without scoring a try, then their final tally of 12 tries would make them the lowest scoring winners of the tournament. However, if they were to score one more, they’d equal the lowest number of tries ever scored by a winning team. That team? Surprise, surprise it was South Africa in 1995.
Those Jonny Wilkinson fans out there can sell the number of minutes until the England hero attempts a drop goal at 24 minutes if you fancy him to have an early shy at the sticks. He’s already scored five this tournament and a Rugby World Cup Final wouldn’t be the same without a Wilkinson drop. For those of you that like the more light hearted bets, make sure you don’t miss out on the Harry Spotter market. Sporting Index are betting on the number of times the ITV cameras show Prince Harry in the crowd during the 80 minutes and reckon it will be just once.
The third place play-off sees France take on Argentina on Friday night, another replay of a game from earlier in the tournament. France will be looking for revenge following their opening night 17-12 shock defeat against the Pumas, but buyers of supremacy at 14 should consider that Argentina have won five of the last six meetings between the two sides. In fact, you have to go back to 1999 the last time France beat Argentina by more than one point. The third place play off is also usually a tight affair. Apart from 2003 when New Zealand thrashed France 40-13, the average winning margin for the other four tournaments has been just over 5 points.
Lewis Hamilton has a chance of being crowned the first ever rookie Formula One World Champion this weekend in Brazil. The McLaren star currently heads the Championship table on 107 points and holds a four point lead over team mate Alonso and a seven point one over Kimi Raikkonen. Basically, if Alonso were to win, then Hamilton would have to finish second to him. For Raikkonen to win, he would need to win with Alonso no higher than third and Hamilton no better than sixth. Sporting Index are predicting that Hamilton will finish around third in the race by offering him at 30-33 points on their big race 60 index. With 60 points awarded to the winner, 40points to the runner-up, 30 points to the 3rd, 25 points to the 4th and then points all the way down to eighth place, the Brit is likely to have a lot of support.
It’s Champions Day at Newmarket on Saturday and the second leg of the Autumn Double with over 30 horses facing the starter for the 2m 2f marathon trip of the Cesarewitch. All favourite backers should take note that only three have obliged in the past 20 years. Buyers of Starting Prices will take encouragement from the fact that all but two of the past 14 winners have traded at double figure prices. If you’re thinking of having a spread bet on the winning distance, note that even with soft ground forecasted, only one winner has won by more than 2 ½ lengths in the last ten years.
Bill Esdaile of Square in the Air Communications, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Sporting Index.
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