Sunday, what a Sunday!
Sunday is the day spread bettors dream about. The Sporting Index trading floor will be like Kings Cross at rush hour all day long, as punters the world over look to get stuck into betting opportunities like the Australian Open Final, Liverpool v Chelsea and Super Bowl XLIII.
We will first take a look at the big Premier League game of the weekend, with Big Phil Scolari looking to pick up his first Big Four win as Chelsea boss. Spread bettors would have been breaking people's necks to reach the buy button in Chelsea's win index (spread 8-9.5) if this game was during the height of the Mourinho era, but all is not well in the Roman Empire at present. Liverpool are the 0.3-0.5 point favourites with Sporting Index and buyers will be delighted to hear that Chelsea have failed to win any of their last nine games at the Big Four across all competitions, as well as losing their last three in the league. You will forgive spread buyers for feeling even jollier when they hear that the Reds are now unbeaten in eight games against their main rivals; but sellers can cling onto the fact that Chelsea have never gone four away games without a win since Abramovich took control (they are currently winless in three).
Chelsea have now scored 11 goals in their last four games and those buying goals on the spreads will be hoping for more of the same. However, it is worth pointing out that since Benitez took over at Liverpool, there have been 20 competitive games between these two clubs and only two have produced more than two goals. Spread betting sellers have come out well on top, as more than half (11/20) have seen one or no goals scored.
If the top of the table clash alone isn't enough to get the spread bettors salivating, perhaps the North East Derby between Newcastle and Sunderland will whet their appetites. The Black Cats picked up their first win against their bitter rivals since 2000 at the Stadium of Light in October, but sellers of the Magpies supremacy with Sporting Index will be encouraged that they haven't managed to do the league double in over 40 years. Newcastle have been a funny team for spread bettors to follow this season and have now gone seven games without a win across all competitions, but they have still only lost five times in 38 games at home against sides in the bottom half since Bobby Robson left the club. Those who like a spread bet will often look at the big derby games as the perfect time to buy bookings, but they will be concerned that none of the 15 Premier League encounters between these sides has produced a red card.
Alarms will be set on Sunday morning for the final of the Australian Open Men's Singles and faced with familiar names in the reckoning, Sporting Index offer punters an opportunity to bet on a host of spread markets, aside from naming the winner. Buyers of the total number of games in the match might be surprised to learn that the final has not featured a five set match for 20 years, when Mats Wilander came back from 2-1 down to overcome crowd favourite Pat Cash. In the last ten years the average number of games in the final has been 34.5 games. Seven finals have gone to four sets, but interestingly, and particularly for those spread punters who closely watch the supremacy markets in-play, the eventual victor has lost the first set in every one of those seven matches. Roger Federer has won no less than three finals in Melbourne and two of those came in straight sets.
An awesome day for sports fans and spread bettors alike is crowned by Super Bowl XLIII on Sunday evening (2320 GMT), matching the Pittsburgh Steelers against the Arizona Cardinals in Tampa, Florida. Both teams have an opportunity to make history, as Pittsburgh will be gunning for their sixth Super Bowl, an NFL record, while Arizona are hoping to win their first. Pittsburgh start as 7-point favourites, but sellers of their supremacy will be pleased that only one of the last nine teams who have started the Super Bowl as 7-point favourites or more have gone on to beat the spread. Looking at the last time the teams faced each other in September 2007 will add further doubt to buyers – Arizona won 21-14.
Spread betting buyers and sellers of total match points, currently predicted to be 45-48, will notice that the total points tally in the match last September was a lowly 35, but may also be aware of the season averages of the two sides. Pittsburgh averaged just 21.7 points in the regular season (ranked 22nd in the league), but jumped to 29 points post-season. Arizona scored significantly higher, adding further encouragement to the buyers of their win index at 25-28pts (25 pts for the win plus 1pt per point scored), averaging 26.7 points in the regular season and 31.7 post-season, albeit arguably in a weaker division. Taking a look at previous Super Bowls, the average total points score is 46.9 over the last ten years, but both buyers and sellers should be aware that in that time the total has been as high as 69 in 2003 and as low as 31 last year and in 2006 – Pittsburgh's last Super Bowl victory.
The Super Bowl is an ideal vehicle for in-running spread betting as things can change extremely quickly. Punters buying or selling on the supremacy markets with Sporting Index will often wait for the first score of the game and the stats show that 71% of teams who score the first touchdown go on to win the game and 76% of Super Bowls go to the team leading after the second quarter. That said, 22 Super Bowls have seen both teams lead at least once, so punters may expect some big market fluctuations. A final note should go to the two quarterbacks in the game, Arizona's Kurt Warner and Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger – two of the only three quarterbacks in history to have achieved three perfect passer ratings. Sporting Index offer a special Most Valuable Player shirt supremacy – the difference between the Pittsburgh MVP's shirt number and that of Arizona's MVP. In 22 previous Super Bowls a quarterback has picked up the MVP award. Warner wears #13; Roethlisberger, #7.
Bill Esdaile of Square in the Air Communications, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Sporting Index.
Football Spread Betting at Sporting Index
