Keane's Derby Return

Spread bettors in the capital don't just have the North London derby to look forward to on Sunday, with the league leader's visit to Upton Park. Man Utd are strong favourites on Sporting Index's win index spreads, currently at 16.5-18 points with West Ham at 5.5-7 points for (25 points for a match win, 10 for a draw). Buyers of United's index at 18 will not have placed their bet lightly – the Hammers are on a fantastic run, winning six and drawing twice since their last defeat just before Christmas. Buyers of West Ham's index will be delighted that no team has inflicted more defeats on the current champions since the start of the 06/07 season, with a haul of three (joint-most with Arsenal) of United's twelve losses suffered in total. Along with those buyers, sellers of the Man Utd/West Ham supremacy spread at 0.9 will be hoping that the home advantage benefits the Hammers as it has done so often in the past against United – Man Utd have won just five of their 32 games at Upton Park in the last 40 years and have managed just two clean sheets in their last 16 visits. Bearing in mind that United hold the ongoing record for the longest period since conceding a league goal, buyers and sellers of any of Sporting Index's goals spreads will be watching the early exchanges eagerly.

Racing has suffered terribly over the past few weeks due to the weather, but with Kempton's jumps card looking set to go ahead tomorrow, spread bettors will be intrigued to see the state of the ground before committing to their winning distance positions. The spread betting public will be most interested in the return of Cheltenham Gold Cup hero Denman who is due to run in the re-routed Aon Chase (now the Levy Board Chase). Buyers of 'The Tank' in the Sporting Index win index and those buying winning distances will obviously have their concerns about his heart, but his trainer has an excellent record in the race, albeit at a different track. He has won five of the last eight runnings, including Denman's 20-length annihilation of the field in this race last year.

Those spread punters who like to play the winning distance market will have to way up whether Denman is simply a class act or if he could be vulnerable on a tight track coming back from a lengthy absence. It's worth noting that five of the past eight winners have only won the race by a 2½ length or less distance, including Kauto Star's neck triumph from L'Ami in 2007. Buyers should not despair though because the likes of Bacchanal and See More Business have won by 12 and 18 lengths respectively. The quality of the opposition in the race is much better than Denman faced last year, so spread bettors who want to take the champ on may look to buy SP's. They would be taking a risk based purely on this race though, as four of the past eight favourites have won and only two winners have started bigger than 4/1. In saying that, spread buyers may perk up when they hear that those two returned at 12/1 and 33/1.

Bill Esdaile of Square in the Air Communications, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available.  Please note these are his views and are not the views of Sporting Index.

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