Six Nations - you can't beat it!
Rugby Union's Six Nations tournament kicked off rather inauspiciously last weekend, that is until the Irish took to the field against France and both teams more than made up for the poor standard of rugby a couple of hours earlier at Twickenham. Welsh and English spread bettors this weekend will be battling minds over hearts for England's visit to Cardiff. Wales go into the match as favourites with the supremacy spread at 10-13, which will be unsurprising to any spread bettor with a passing interest in the sport. Buyers of Wales' win index will be aware of England's failure to gel under Martin Johnson but will also expect that the venue is likely to have an impact on the outcome. England have not won at the Millennium Stadium for six years, since 2003 – the same year Johnson lifted the World Cup as England captain.
Those predicting a hefty win for Wales will consider the supremacy spread undervalued and buy at 13, but perhaps they are unaware of the recent scores between the rival countries. Buyers of Wales' supremacy will remember the 2008 fixture at Twickenham where Wales recorded an important victory by 26 points to 15, a margin of just 11 but impressive no less at the home of English Rugby. The previous two in Cardiff, both wins for Wales, were won by a relatively modest margin however, just 11 points and two points. If we widen the historical focus, in a total of 117 games between the sides spanning over 120 years, Wales' highest winning margin over England is 34 points. Perhaps sellers of the supremacy spread will concede that England face an uphill battle, but that the winning margin may not flatter the Welsh quite as much as the Sporting Index traders expect. It's also worth remembering that between Wales' successive victories over England in the 2007 and 2008 Six Nations, England recorded a 62-5 win over Wales in a World Cup warm-up.
Spread bettors who base their decisions on last year's Six Nations performance can be fairly assured that both teams in 2009 are pretty much where they were in 2008 – Wales are favourites on Sporting Index's outright index (current spread – 41-44) and England are still performing well below their promise. Buyers and sellers of the match points spread might like to know how the Welsh performed in games at home last year – in their three games at the Millennium Stadium, Wales scored a total of 106 points, or an average of 35.3 per match. With a wealth of kicking ability among the Welsh, tries accounted for less than half of these points although Wales' try scoring record at home in 2008's Six Nations was by no means unimpressive with a total of ten in the three games. Compare this to England's three away games in last year's competition – they averaged 18.7 points and 1.3 tries a match. Buyers of the performance supremacy spread (where points are awarded for match outcome, tries, kicked goals and deducted for missed kicks and cards shown) will undoubtedly consider this when weighing up match betting options.
Scotland put up a spirited display against Wales in their opening game at Murrayfield last weekend, but spread bettors who bought the Dragons in the Sporting Index outright index will now be feeling confident as the spread creeps up. The Scots on the other hand have dropped down to a spread of 6-8 and they have a very tough assignment on Saturday, travelling to Paris, where they haven't won since April 1999. In fact, since that time Les Bleus have only suffered one defeat against Scotland, by 20-16 at Murrayfield in 2006. The Sporting Index traders are fully aware of this record though and have installed France as 15-18 point spread supremacy favourites. Those spread bettors looking to buy will feel there is little downside, as the Scots could only get within 13 points against Wales at home last week. They will take further confidence when they see that the last time these sides met in Paris, the winning margin was 27 points, whilst Scotland have only scored a try on French soil once in their last five games. However, there are other reasons to suggest a buy may not be the best call for those dabbling on the spreads.
In the past four meetings in Paris, the French have won by an average 19.75 points, but those who like a spread bet will be interested that there has been a pattern emerging in these games. When Les Bleus have won by a big margin against the Scots, their next win seems to be much tighter. Take a look at the last four winning margins with the most recent first (27, 7, 35, 10). The spread betting public will be mixed as to whether they think this is just coincidence or a trend to follow. If the trend continues though, those selling France at 15 points with Sporting Index will be singing Flower of Scotland well into the night.
The total points market in this game is another one for rugby spread bettors to get excited about. Light snow is forecast in Paris on Friday and if this continues into Saturday, you can bet your bottom dollar that spread punters will be reaching for the sell button. Interestingly, games between these two in Paris have been far more inconsistent in terms of points in recent years compared with games at Murrayfield. All of the last four games in Edinburgh have produced between 31 and 36 points, so nothing to get buyers or sellers with Sporting Index particularly enthused. However, looking at recent games in the French capital, the last winning margin was by 65 points two years ago, with an incredible nine tries scored. That is not to say that this is a guaranteed high scorer though and spread buyers should note that two of the previous three games here finished with 25 and 22 points.
Bill Esdaile of Square in the Air Communications, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Sporting Index.
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