Six Nations, week three
This weekend sees a first in the history of the Six Nations, a Friday night match and with a large contingent of Welsh support expected to make the trip to the Stade de France, the atmosphere is sure to be electric. Spread bettors are in for a bumpy ride according to the Sporting Index traders, who are only just convinced that Wales will emerge victorious, installing the Dragons as 1-4 point favourites on the supremacy spread. The traders will be kept busy throughout the game thanks to the likely surge of in-play activity on this match, and in-running spread punters will be looking for value with any inkling as to the probable outcome in the first few minutes.
Both sellers of the supremacy spread and buyers of France's win index at 31 (25 points for a win plus winning score) will be encouraged by the head-to-head records in the last ten matches since 2000. France have won seven of those games to Wales' three, although perhaps surprisingly, two of those victories for Wales have been on French soil, which will encourage buyers of Wales' win index spread (currently at 34-37) after their mediocre performance against England last week. England outscored Wales on tries, and this fact may persuade spread bettors to sell the Wales/France performance spread at 6-14 (where points are awarded for tries and kicked goals as well as a win, and points deducted for missed kicks and cards).
An England trip to Croke Park is always going to rouse passions in Dublin, and even more so this year, now Ireland are in with a genuine shout of winning the tournament for the first time since 1985. Regular rugby spread bettors will not be surprised by Ireland's favouritism with Sporting Index, with the supremacy set at 8-11 points. Buyers of the spread may be unaware that of the 121 games between the teams Ireland have won just 43 matches to England's 70. Both spread buyers and sellers should be much more interested in the recent performances though, and the results of the five games since England's World Cup triumph in 2003 will please both buyers of the supremacy and Ireland's win index at 43-46 – England have won just one of the five games, including defeats in both matches in Dublin.
The cliché of the crowd as an extra player is more often applied to football, but the support at Croke Park on Saturday could prove to be just that, or at least buyers of the supremacy spread will hope so. The historic game at the venue in 2007 saw Ireland achieve their greatest ever winning margin over England in a 43-13 victory. Buyers of the total points spread, currently at 40-43, will also hope for a repeat. Other spread punters may look to the tries markets. England have long had a reputation as a negative kicking side, but their try record in the tournament so far is solid, having scored five tries even when underperforming against the Italians and, as mentioned, outscoring Wales in touchdowns despite their defeat. With England's try spread at 1.4-1.7, buyers will be expecting more of the same. Ireland have managed eight tries in their two games so far – buyers of the total match tries spread at 4.3 will pray that rather than cancel each other out, both teams maintain a high-standard of attacking rugby.
Bill Esdaile of Square in the Air Communications, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Sporting Index.
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