Magnificent Seven

Here is a Grand National quiz question for you...What have Nadover, Longshanks, Joes Edge, Innox, Ardent Scout, Carbury Cross and You're Agoodun all got in common? I'm not going to tell you just yet, you can have a bit more time to think about it.

So, the wait is almost over and a maximum field of forty will line up for the John Smith's Grand National at Aintree on Saturday afternoon. The Ruby Walsh ridden My Will currently heads the betting and will be tackled for that position by Tony McCoy's Butler's Cabin on the day. Now, spread betting punters have never had it better and this year, for the first time, Sporting Index are offering an index with points right the way down to seventh place - ‘each-way' terms that put a lot of fixed-odds firms to shame. With 100 points awarded to the winner of the contest, 70 points to the runner-up, 50 to the third, 30 points to the fourth, 20 points to the fifth, 10 points to the sixth and 5 points to the seventh, there is potentially some real value in buying some of the rags.

Right, the answer to the quiz question above is that those seven horses have finished seventh in the last seven runnings of the race. Why is that significant? If you had backed these with any other bookmaker, you wouldn't have seen any return on your investment. However, this year, Sporting Index will be rewarding backers of that seventh placed horse.

All eyes this year will again be on Tony McCoy who has still yet to win a National and will be having his 13th ride in the race when he gets the leg up on Butler's Cabin on Saturday afternoon. He has finished in the frame on three occasions (3rd on Clan Royal in 2006, 3rd on Blowing Wind in both 2001 and 2002), but has yet to taste victory. The incredible jockey could cap an already amazing season which has seen him pass the 3,000 winner mark by winning the world's most famous steeplechase and looks sure to come in for plenty of support.

Sporting Index are currently predicting that 16 (spread is 15.5 – 16.5) of the forty runners will complete the 4 ½ mile course and safely navigate their way over the thirty notorious fences. The ground has an impact on the spread and when there is rain about, that quote is usually a lot lower. The going has been officially ‘soft' or worse on only seven occasions since 1972 and on no occasion has there been more than 14 finishers (9, 4, 10, 14, 6, 6 and 4).

Sellers of the number of finishers will therefore be praying for rain and a repeat of the events of 2001 when only three finished behind eventual winner Red Marauder on bottomless ground. Amazingly, that wasn't the smallest ever number of finishers as only two finished in 1928 when Tipperary Tim beat Billy Barton by a distance. Only three finished in 1951, largely due to a debacle at the first when 11 horses fell. In fact, only six were left standing as the field set out on the second circuit.

Buyers of the total number of finishers on the spreads will hope that the sun shines and the ground is ‘good' or faster as it has been on ten occasions since 1990. Interestingly in that time, there have never been less than 11 finishers with a whopping 20 finishing on firm ground in 1990 behind Mr Frisk. The highest number of finishers was 23 back in 1984 followed by 22 in 1963, 1987 and 1992. Incidentally, there were 15 finishers last year and just nine the year before.

Sporting Index are also offering a spread on the number of horses that fall at the first fence and to add volatility to it are multiplying the number by ten. Therefore, instead of offering a spread of 2.4-2.7, the market is pitched at 24-27. Buyers will be hoping for a repeat of the debacle at the first in 1951 when 11 of the 36 contestants fell – for a make-up of 110. Although the entire field successfully negotiated the first twelve months ago, both Point Barrow and Tikram failed to do so in 2007. Innox, Tyneandthyneagain, Juveigneur and Royal Auclair all failed in 2006, while nobody will forget the events of 2002 where nine failed to make it to the second fence.

Another popular Grand National spread betting market is the prediction on the starting price of the winner which is pitched at between 18.5 – 19.5/1 this year. As always, you would be selling if you thought the price will be shorter and buying if you expect an upset. The biggest priced winner of the race since 1980 is 50/1 (Last Suspect in 1985), while there have also been two 40/1 shots (Ben Nevis in 1980 and Royal Athlete in 1995) in that same period. Buyers will be praying for another Foinavon who famously triumphed at 100/1 back in 1967.

At 7/1, last year's winner Comply Or Die was the joint shortest priced winner (with Hedgehunter in 2005, Earth Summit in 1998, Rough Quest in 1996 and Grittar in 1982) since Merryman II won at 13/2 back in 1960.

Comply Or Die won last year's contest by 4 lengths and the prediction this year is that the gap between the winner and the runner-up will be between 7 ½ and 8 ½ lengths. Spread sellers will be hoping for a repeat of the tight contests seen in 2007 (where Silver Birch saw off McKelvey by ¾ length) and 2002 (where Bindaree only had 1 ¾ lengths between himself and runner-up What's Up Boys). Buyers will take heart from the fact that Hedgehunter was 14 lengths too good for anything else back in 2005, while Monty's Pass was a 12 length winner in 2003 and Red Marauder an astonishing 30 length winner two years earlier.

Bill Esdaile of Square in the Air Communications, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available.  Please note these are his views and are not the views of Sporting Index.

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