Put your hands up for Dirk Kuyt!
There are only two unbeaten sides left in the Premier League and they both meet on Sunday at Stamford Bridge, for one of the biggest UK football betting games of the season. Sporting Index, along with a number of other bookmakers, were hammered last weekend when the Reds popped up with two of their now standard late goals. Spread betting buyers of the time of the last match goal will have been celebrating in both of Liverpool's last games, with goals in the 85th and 90th minutes. Dirk Kuyt is earning cult status at Anfield in recent weeks and he is now earning similar status in spread betting player goal minutes circles. He has scored the winning goal for Liverpool in their last two league games and the Sporting Index traders will undoubtedly be moving up his goal minutes quote this weekend.
Total goals buyers will take encouragement from the Reds' last three games all producing 4 or more goals, whilst Chelsea put 5 past Middlesbrough at the weekend. However, it always pays in spread betting to look at more than the obvious facts and sellers of match goals have a lot to cheer about as well. The sides have met 17 times since Benitez took over the reins at Anfield and only one of those contests - Chelsea's 4-1 win at Anfield in 2005/06 - has seen more than 2 goals, whilst more than half (10 from 17) have ended with 1 or no goals. Sellers on the spreads will also be pleased to hear that since the start of the 2006/07 campaign, 83% of Chelsea's 23 games against the Big Four have seen 2 goals or less, with 65% of Liverpool's last 23 also under that threshold.
From a game with a history of few goals, to another with a history of few goals - or is it? Spread bettors will be intrigued to learn that there have only been five goals in the last four meetings between West Ham and Arsenal, and only two in the past three games between the sides at Upton Park. However, although that is a worrying statistic for those spread betting punters buying total goals, they will be relieved to find that of the 19 games played at Upton Park last season, 15 featured at least one goal from both sides. That was comfortably the highest in the division, with no other home team being involved in more than 12 of such games. Throw into the mix that 13 of Arsenal's 19 away games saw both sides score, and the spread goals buyers have greater cause for celebration. There have been 3 goals or more in all of the Hammers' last eight home games, with seven producing 4 or more.
We have already discussed how Liverpool regularly score late goals in the league this season, but punters usually don't have to wait too long for the deadlock to be broken at the Boleyn Ground. Sporting Index will set the spread for the time of the first match goal at around 37-40 minutes and sellers will be delighted to hear that just under 60% (36 of 61) of West Ham's home games since they last got promoted to the Premier League have seen a goal scored in the first 20 minutes. This figure rises further since Alan Pardew left the club in 2005/06, with nearly 70% (23 of 34) of their home games seeing a goal in the first 20. Those spread bettors hoping for a tight first half will also be concerned that 61% of Arsenal's last 23 away games (14 of 23) have had a goal in the first 20, with three of their four so far this season also seeing a goal in that time period.
Everton host Man United on Saturday lunchtime and sellers of United supremacy will be concerned that the Toffees' defeat at Arsenal last weekend means that they have now lost seven in a row against the Big Four and have only managed to pick up two points from a possible 36 against them in the last 18 months (no points from six games at home). Football spread bettors in general, and particularly buyers of United's Premier League season points, will have noted that they have started to hit form recently. Although they have dropped points at 12 of 20 top-half sides since the start of the 2006/07 campaign, they have taken all three points in 78% of their 22 games at teams in the bottom half of the league (17/22).
Buyers of United's supremacy should be encouraged by both their own recent form in front of goal and Everton's poor goal scoring record against them. In the last four years, United have travelled to Goodison Park five times (once in the FA Cup) and Everton have failed to score on three occasions. This season, since beating Middlesborough 3-1 in the League Cup, the Red Devils have scored 14 times in five games without conceding a goal.
The Racing Post Trophy, the final UK Group 1 flat race of the season, takes place at Doncaster on Saturday and has been one of the strongest Derby trials in recent years. Online horse racing betting has increased markedly in recent years and those looking to sell SP's with Sporting Index will be pleased to hear that four of the last six favourites have hosed up in this race. They haven't had it all their own way though, as those two winners who weren't favourites returned at 20/1 and 25/1. Winning distance spread buyers will be hoping for a repeat of last year's winner Ibn Khaldun, who won by 3 lengths. That was the biggest winning distance since Commander Collins' 7-length rout in 1998, whilst no horse has won by less than ¾'s of a length in that time.
Bill Esdaile of Square in the Air Communications, a former sports trader, spread betting specialist and self confessed stats addict, casts his eye over this weekend's sport and shares his views on some of the trades available. Please note these are his views and are not the views of Sporting Index.
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