We are pleased to bring you golf’s no. 1 tipster, Racing & Football Outlook and the Racing Post’s Jeremy Chapman, writing exclusively for Sporting Index.
TOP-CLASS golf comes to southern England for the only time this year for the
BMW PGA Championship at sun-kissed Wentworth but although the aces in the pack will be Brits in the shapes of Rory McIlroy, Luke Donald and Lee Westwood, don't be surprised if the European Tour's flagship tournament falls to a marauding Yank, the 2003 Open champion Ben Curtis.
The quiet man from Jack Nicklaus territory, Columbus, Ohio, has had his ups and downs since making our Open his first win ever, mostly downs because he went six years between victories before last month's Texas Open. Since then, you could argue that, Jason Dufner apart, he has to be the most in-form golfer in the world. He's 43 under par for his last four starts which include that Texas surprise, plus second place in the Players Championship, a fifth at Quail Hollow and 13th in New Orleans.
Even with Donald an obvious favourite for an event he won last year in a play-off with Lee Westwood and was winner-elect the year before until a wayward drive at the 17th cost him a double bogey, Curtis could be celebrating his 35th birthday a day late on Sunday on a course where he finished sixth on his last visit three years ago. Of course, the West at Wentworth has been drastically altered since, and controversially so, but the basic requirement, as Donald showed twice, is not to blast the ball out of sight but to keep it in play, avoid the claustrophobic trees and hole the putts, the form of golf which suits him and the unspectacular but effective Curtis to a T.
So while pushing the claim for the world No. 2 to go very close to making a successful PGA defence - and why shouldn't he after winning Transitions and finishing in the top six on his two latest outings? - there's no mileage in tipping up the favourite. He's a fair sell at 18 on
finishing positions but Curtis is twice as juicy at 35 and should easily beat that mark despite the awesome line-up.
Because of the distinct lack of birdies for the last two years - six under par won twice after the toughening-up process - the par has been increased to 72 with the 12th extended by 51 yards and reverting to a par five, so with the weather set fair for all four days, we could see a winning score of around a more crowd-friendly 11 or 12 under. Curtis is a grafter who thrives on difficult tests and his Open victory at Royal St George's nine years ago when he started a 750-1 unknown came in similar weather conditions.
We made quite a bit of money by opposing McIlroy at Sawgrass and there's a fair case for going against not only for him but also his Northern Ireland chum Graeme McDowell. McIlroy missed the cut last time out at the Players and his Wentworth record since the alterations reads no better than 24th and 48th. G-Mac has played the PGA nine times and posted only one finish better than 27th. True, he did reach the final of the Match Play on Sunday but didn't play well that day and as he had to play over 100 holes in Spain, not always in propitious weather, he may not be looking forward to the week with enormous relish. He hit a number of strange shots during the week and there are plenty capable of finishing ahead of him on Sporting Index's
Challengers Index, so go short of G-Mac at 12.
As for Rory, he needs a top-ten to put sellers at 57 of the
Dazzling Au-Ror-a performance special on the back foot and although that's perfectly possible - he was fifth at Wentworth three years ago - I still feel Sporting have pitched this quote too high given all the available facts about the current world No. 1.
It's amazing what you learn from reading the Sporting Index website and I am indebted to the office punster who came up with
Curt Hussle as the title for the Curtis performance special. That name meant the square root of sweet FA to me until I Googled it and then I learned that Kurt Hustle is a famous (?) German hip-hop personality and not especially nice. Nothing like Ben, in fact, but we live and learn. My final offering for this tournament is a small buy of Padraig Harrington on the
Hand Of Pod special. The Dubliner keeps hinting that a serious revival is on the way without quite putting it all together but he arrives after a decent week in the States and before that a Masters top-ten.
And Pod does have some good form at Wentworth even though he opted out of this tournament on a number of occasions saying it did not suit his game. However, as he did reach a World Match Play final there, what he says does not always make sense to people not on the planet that he inhabits. A top-30 this week gives buyers at 22 a profit and although the threat of a 25-point penalty if he misses the cut is something of a deterrent, it is time to get positive about Pod as a strong putting week, the area in which he has been struggling, will put him right in the mix.
Over the in the States, Wentworth no-show merchant Sergio Garcia heads the
Top European market for the
Crowne Plaza Invitational at Colonial but the negative Spaniard was back to his bad old ways on the greens last week and even though he is a course winner, his head is not right and he may be talking himself out of a Ryder Cup return. So take him on with the little-known Swede Jonas Blixt for Top Euro, For anyone who has been watching Sky recently, Blixt's name will not be a total "Jonas Who?" because this 28-year-old who has come through the US college system and the Nationwide Tour has finished 13th at New Orleans, ninth at Quail Hollow and, on Sunday the best yet, third at the Byron Nelson. As a shortish, positional course with plenty of doglegs, Colonial may not suit a newcomer like Blixt as much as the three tracks where he has performed so well, but he's well worth risking at 18 to floor the likes of Sergio, Carl Pettersson, Brian Davis and Henrik Stenson. Now that he has got his feet firmly under the main-tour table, this lad now knows he belongs there and, whereas the others in the group are standing still or going backwards, Blixt is clearly going to be around a long while. He is 30 under par for his last 12 rounds and the $585,000 he has won in that short period means few worries about keeping his card for next year.
As for the tournament winner, I am very keen on Players Championship joint second Zach Johnson who won at Colonial two years ago and made a stout defence when fourth last time. To shoot 259, as he did in 2010, indicates just how Colonial fits Zach's eye and he is back in the sort of form that produced those low numbers. You can sell his
FP at 25, buy him, along with other likely types in Jim Furyk, Jason Dufner and Matt Kuchar, at 41 on the
Crowne Jewels hotshots, or go long of his
Zach Attack performance special at 47. A top-20 is worth 50 on that and with almost all the top Europeans playing at Wentworth, he does not have too much to beat. At longer odds, Ben Crane, with Colonial top-fives on three of his last five visits, is another short-game wizard and general grafter who could be worth supporting at 20 on the
Insane Crane special. A top-30 is worth 25 and although he is not too consistent this year, he is very well suited by this thinking man's course in Texas.
Please note: The content above solely contains the views and opinions of Jeremy Chapman and not Sporting Index Ltd. Sporting Index offers it services on an “execution only” basis under FSA regulations and does not provide investment advice.