A Lot Of Political Talk But Whos Listening
A lot of political talk, but is anyone listening?We have now dipped under the 30 days to go milestone before polling day and the rhetoric and bluster from politicians, pundits and pollsters is reaching a crescendo. In the past couple of weeks we’ve had live interviews, leaders’ debates, Scottish leaders’ debates, policy announcements and endless photo calls and interviews. It’s no wonder the poor student couldn’t bear another second of David Cameron reading a story to her and let her head hit the desk instead. With all this activity exciting the already rabid political press, for whom a general election is their World Cup and Olympics wrapped into one, it seems that voters may not yet be taking too much notice.
Opinion polls are static, and have been for months, but that hasn’t stopped shrew political spread bettors on our General Election Seats Market. Even with unchanging opinion polling, it appears the Conservatives and Labour are slowing drifting apart hinting that the Tories may just win the most seats. There was a gradual climb in predicted seat totals for David Cameron and Co. after the Budget Speech, which was only clawed back by Ed Miliband thanks to a better than expected performance in his live interview with Jeremy Paxman. It appears the seven-way leaders’ debate had no real effect on either party.
One might think that if the two heavyweights are stumbling around the centre of the ring exhausted and looking for one big punch that will land cleanly, then surely the smaller parties are gaining ground. However, that isn’t quite the case. In fact, the Scottish National Party and the Liberal Democrats are just about holding what they have for the moment and Nigel Farage’s UKIP are starting to fall away a touch.
Interestingly, we’ve also seen modest changes to our ‘Name the Government’ market in recent days that indicate Labour led governments of any flavour are coming up on the rails and might be able to overhaul the Conservatives before Brits head to the polls. Yet, as everyone knows, a General Election is really 650 local elections and the key individual constituencies are proving fascinating to track. Recent polling from Lord Ashcroft indicated that Labour have overtaken the Tories in a couple of seats while Deputy Prime Minister Nick Clegg isn’t safe by any means in his own constituency of Sheffield Hallam. Also, we have a number of general election special markets including voter turnout, seat supremacy and size of smallest winning margin, which is currently at just 32 votes. The makeup of the next government may come down to a single seat, which could be decided by a tiny fraction of the UK population.
The one thing that is for sure is that there will be plenty of twists and turns over the next 28 days that will determine who walks into Number 10.