June 2016
JUNE 2016
A torrent of trading propels Leave to high water mark (6th June 2016)
A flood of bets backing Brexit has taken Leave to its highest predicted vote share since leading political spread betting company Sporting Index's markets opened.
The firm has taken twenty times more bets on the EU Referendum in the past three days then during the entirety of the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014.
A majority of the company's clients in the past few days have been backing Leave to prevail, pushing the campaign to a high water mark expected vote share of 47.5 per cent.
However, according to Sporting Index's markets, Britain is expected to still be a member of the EU after the crucial vote with `Remain' winning 52.5 per cent of the vote.
Sporting Index's political trading team now predict that voter turnout will be 64 per cent, up three points since in the last month.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "The volume of bets we've taken on the EU referendum in the past 72 hours is incredible considering we are still over two weeks away from polling day. If this frenzy of activity continues, the EU referendum will likely turnout to be a bigger political betting event than the last few general elections put together.
"The weight of money is starting to really build up behind a vote for Brexit, narrowing the gap between the two outcomes to just five percentage points on our markets at this early stage."
"With a slew of debates to come over the next fortnight, both sides of the argument will be confident of persuading voters to back their desired outcomes but our clients have been backing Brexit by a near two to one margin in recent days. Yet, two weeks is a long time in politics and it's very much still all to play for."
Predicted Remain vote share down to record low (13th June 2016)
The Remain campaign's predicted vote share has fallen to its lowest ever level on leading political spread betting company Sporting Index's markets.
Since unprecedented heavy trading began last week, sellers of Remain's fortunes have far outnumbered buyers, sinking the campaign to a low water mark expected vote share of just 52 per cent.
The market movements come amid the latest ICM poll released today, which revealed Leave ahead by both phone and online polling methods.
Such has been the focus on the referendum campaign in recent weeks that Sporting Index's political trading team now predict that voter turnout will be 68 per cent.
The turnout figure is up seven points in a month, and indicates that more voters intend to cast a ballot next Thursday than did so in last May's General Election.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "While polls continue to produce a slightly mixed outlook depending on the methodology used, our Brexit markets have seen almost exclusively one-way traffic for the past week in favour of Leave."
"Yet it isn't all doom and gloom for those who wish to continue to be a part of the European Union as Remain still boast a slender lead on our markets, and are rolling out all of their big beasts on the campaign trail."
"However, if the trend of the past week continues right up until polling day, it wouldn't surprise me to see our markets at 50-50, or even showing a slim Leave lead, as voters head to the polls."
Just 1 in 10 bets taken in past 48 hours backing Remain (14th June 2016)
A flood of bets backing Leave over that past 48 hours has sunk Remain to its lowest ever level on leading political spread betting company Sporting Index's Brexit markets.
The firm revealed that over the previous two-day period, just 1 in 10 bets taken have backed the David Cameron-led Remain campaign.
Traders at Sporting Index now predict Remain's vote share to be just 51 per cent, the lowest since the company's markets opened in early March.
Turnout for next Thursday's historic vote is predicted to be 68 per cent of the electorate.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "It's been a devastating few days for the Remain campaign, with polling indicating the momentum is now behind Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and Co."
"Our political trading team has seen a level of activity that usually only occurs on polling day for a General Election, and to say it's been one-way traffic is an understatement - just one in ten bets taken have backed Remain."
"Last May's General Election was the biggest British political betting event in our 30-year history, but the EU referendum will shortly take the top spot and there is still more than a week to go until voters head to the polls."
Sunderland to declare at 23:30 with Leave on 53.5% (22nd June 2016)
Sunderland is expected to win the race to declare and report at 23:30 that Leave has won 53.5 per cent of the vote, according to leading political spread betting company Sporting Index's Brexit markets.
Without a national exit poll, all eyes will be on the North East where Remain is predicted to finish seven points behind Leave after ballots are counted.
However, heavy backing for the David Cameron-led Remain campaign in the past 48 hours has seen their predicted national vote share rise above 53 per cent for the first time in a fortnight.
Sporting Index's political trading team expect turnout tomorrow to be 70.5 per cent, four points higher than last May's General Election.
Sunderland's counting team has won the race to declare in the previous six general elections, with Houghton and Sunderland South announcing Labour's Bridget Phillipson had been duly elected just 50 minutes after polls closed.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "Without the aid of a national exit poll, both the Remain and Leave camps will need to wait for results to come in to judge how effective their campaigns have been."
"Sunderland has won the race to declare at every general election since 1992, and we think they will be equally speedy on Thursday by announcing the result of their count just 90 minutes after polls close."
"We think the Wearside count will see Leave receive 53.5 per cent of the vote. Any less than that and it could signal that the Remain campaign will be the ones celebrating in the wee hours of Friday morning."
Brexit proves expensive for Sporting Index (24th June 2016)
Leading political spread betting company Sporting Index saw unprecedented action in the run-up to Britain's EU referendum.
It was a painful night for the firm as its clients consistently favoured Leave throughout the campaign, resulting in a six figure loss for the company.
Sporting Index was the first bookmaker to offer a market on turnout and the eventual 72% figure contributed to the loss as spread bettors clearly believed voters would turn out in force.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "We were getting ready to pop the champagne corks at 10pm when a Remain win looked highly likely, but by midnight the bottles were shoved back in the fridge."
"When we got to 4am it was head in hands time on the trading floor and the punters have beaten us fair and square here. On the bright side, the volume of bets for the referendum was fantastic and we look forward to round two against our customers in the US presidential election."
A torrent of trading propels Leave to high water mark (6th June 2016)
A flood of bets backing Brexit has taken Leave to its highest predicted vote share since leading political spread betting company Sporting Index's markets opened.
The firm has taken twenty times more bets on the EU Referendum in the past three days then during the entirety of the Scottish Independence referendum in 2014.
A majority of the company's clients in the past few days have been backing Leave to prevail, pushing the campaign to a high water mark expected vote share of 47.5 per cent.
However, according to Sporting Index's markets, Britain is expected to still be a member of the EU after the crucial vote with `Remain' winning 52.5 per cent of the vote.
Sporting Index's political trading team now predict that voter turnout will be 64 per cent, up three points since in the last month.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "The volume of bets we've taken on the EU referendum in the past 72 hours is incredible considering we are still over two weeks away from polling day. If this frenzy of activity continues, the EU referendum will likely turnout to be a bigger political betting event than the last few general elections put together.
"The weight of money is starting to really build up behind a vote for Brexit, narrowing the gap between the two outcomes to just five percentage points on our markets at this early stage."
"With a slew of debates to come over the next fortnight, both sides of the argument will be confident of persuading voters to back their desired outcomes but our clients have been backing Brexit by a near two to one margin in recent days. Yet, two weeks is a long time in politics and it's very much still all to play for."
Predicted Remain vote share down to record low (13th June 2016)
The Remain campaign's predicted vote share has fallen to its lowest ever level on leading political spread betting company Sporting Index's markets.
Since unprecedented heavy trading began last week, sellers of Remain's fortunes have far outnumbered buyers, sinking the campaign to a low water mark expected vote share of just 52 per cent.
The market movements come amid the latest ICM poll released today, which revealed Leave ahead by both phone and online polling methods.
Such has been the focus on the referendum campaign in recent weeks that Sporting Index's political trading team now predict that voter turnout will be 68 per cent.
The turnout figure is up seven points in a month, and indicates that more voters intend to cast a ballot next Thursday than did so in last May's General Election.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "While polls continue to produce a slightly mixed outlook depending on the methodology used, our Brexit markets have seen almost exclusively one-way traffic for the past week in favour of Leave."
"Yet it isn't all doom and gloom for those who wish to continue to be a part of the European Union as Remain still boast a slender lead on our markets, and are rolling out all of their big beasts on the campaign trail."
"However, if the trend of the past week continues right up until polling day, it wouldn't surprise me to see our markets at 50-50, or even showing a slim Leave lead, as voters head to the polls."
Just 1 in 10 bets taken in past 48 hours backing Remain (14th June 2016)
A flood of bets backing Leave over that past 48 hours has sunk Remain to its lowest ever level on leading political spread betting company Sporting Index's Brexit markets.
The firm revealed that over the previous two-day period, just 1 in 10 bets taken have backed the David Cameron-led Remain campaign.
Traders at Sporting Index now predict Remain's vote share to be just 51 per cent, the lowest since the company's markets opened in early March.
Turnout for next Thursday's historic vote is predicted to be 68 per cent of the electorate.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "It's been a devastating few days for the Remain campaign, with polling indicating the momentum is now behind Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage and Co."
"Our political trading team has seen a level of activity that usually only occurs on polling day for a General Election, and to say it's been one-way traffic is an understatement - just one in ten bets taken have backed Remain."
"Last May's General Election was the biggest British political betting event in our 30-year history, but the EU referendum will shortly take the top spot and there is still more than a week to go until voters head to the polls."
Sunderland to declare at 23:30 with Leave on 53.5% (22nd June 2016)
Sunderland is expected to win the race to declare and report at 23:30 that Leave has won 53.5 per cent of the vote, according to leading political spread betting company Sporting Index's Brexit markets.
Without a national exit poll, all eyes will be on the North East where Remain is predicted to finish seven points behind Leave after ballots are counted.
However, heavy backing for the David Cameron-led Remain campaign in the past 48 hours has seen their predicted national vote share rise above 53 per cent for the first time in a fortnight.
Sporting Index's political trading team expect turnout tomorrow to be 70.5 per cent, four points higher than last May's General Election.
Sunderland's counting team has won the race to declare in the previous six general elections, with Houghton and Sunderland South announcing Labour's Bridget Phillipson had been duly elected just 50 minutes after polls closed.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "Without the aid of a national exit poll, both the Remain and Leave camps will need to wait for results to come in to judge how effective their campaigns have been."
"Sunderland has won the race to declare at every general election since 1992, and we think they will be equally speedy on Thursday by announcing the result of their count just 90 minutes after polls close."
"We think the Wearside count will see Leave receive 53.5 per cent of the vote. Any less than that and it could signal that the Remain campaign will be the ones celebrating in the wee hours of Friday morning."
Brexit proves expensive for Sporting Index (24th June 2016)
Leading political spread betting company Sporting Index saw unprecedented action in the run-up to Britain's EU referendum.
It was a painful night for the firm as its clients consistently favoured Leave throughout the campaign, resulting in a six figure loss for the company.
Sporting Index was the first bookmaker to offer a market on turnout and the eventual 72% figure contributed to the loss as spread bettors clearly believed voters would turn out in force.
Ed Fulton, political spokesman for Sporting Index, said: "We were getting ready to pop the champagne corks at 10pm when a Remain win looked highly likely, but by midnight the bottles were shoved back in the fridge."
"When we got to 4am it was head in hands time on the trading floor and the punters have beaten us fair and square here. On the bright side, the volume of bets for the referendum was fantastic and we look forward to round two against our customers in the US presidential election."