December 2019

67% GO TO THE POLLS

Voter turnout: 67% of voters set to go to polls 



Thursday 5th December, 2019 – Betting firm Sporting Index predict a voting turnout of 67% for next week's general election, like-for-like for the snap election in 2017.  
 
Jeremy Corbyn's Labour party made surprise gains in 2017 after more 18-24 year-old voters turned out than in any election for 25 years, However, the political betting experts are not anticipating 2017's 68.7% turnout to be bettered. 
 
The political trading expert at Sporting Index also forecast Boris Johnson will win a working majority, with total Tory seats currently priced at 345. Labour are also expected to lose 24MPs by landing 219 seats in Parliament.  
 
Phil Fairclough, trading spokesmen for Sporting Index, said:Labour are aimed to entice even more young voters to the polling stations than in 2017 with their grassroots campaign, but we think it'll be a similar turnout for this election in comparison with the last one.“  
 
A similar turnout to 2017 is expected, which are things stand should mean one less thing for the Conservatives to worry about as they seem to command the polls with one week to go until election day.“  



GERAGHTY RIDING AT SUNDOWN 

Barry Geraghty: Hoping exuberant Defi can take us on a journey  


Friday 7th December, 2019My First ride at Sandown is Dream Berry in the Pertemps Qualifier (1:20pm). 
 
He's been off the track for over a year, but had plenty of bits of good form including a second in a Grade 3 at Aintree with me on board.  
 
He also ran well in the Martin Pipe at the 2018 Cheltenham Festival so if he could return to that sort of form, he'd be in the mix. through his most recent form wouldn't be anything to write home about.  
 
When a horse is coming in off such a long lay-off you can never be sure how they are going to fare, but he has the ability if he's back to somewhere near his best.  
 
I'm really looking forward to getting back on board Defi Du Seuil in the Tingle Creek (3:00pm).  
 
Phillip Hobbs' horses are absolutely flying at the moment, and the same can hopefully be said for Defi who won well at Cheltenham last time.  
 
He should improve for the run, particularly his jumping which will hopefully be a little slicker as he gave his fences plenty of air last time. If anything, it's just a bout of over exuberance as his technique is very good and he's improved a lot since last season.  
 

BORIS EYE'S 346 SEATS

Tories eyeing 346 seats as election day looms large 



Tuesday 10th December, 2019More support for the Conservatives shows that Boris Johnson could be heading towards a majority victory, with betting firm Sporting Index predicting the Tories will claim 346 seats.  
 
Towards the tail end of November, it looked like Jeremy Corbyn's Labour were making surprise gains, but Sporting Index's political trading experts have warned that has cooled and the Tories are now heading towards securing a comfortable victory on Thursday. 
 
When the snap election was called in late October, Conservatives seats were projected to be just 320, but this rose to a peak of 351 at the end of November and currently makes up 346.  
 
Labour's predicted seats hit a high of 219 on the Sporting Index trading floor last week, after opening at 2014 when the election was announced in October. Last week's figure has only changed marginally since, now standing at 218.  
 

TORY MAJORITY AT 4/9

Conservatives majority being backed at 4/9 



Wednesday 11th December, 2019With less than 24 hours until polling opens, bookmakers Sporting Index is reporting that Boris Johnson securing a reduced majority looks increasingly likely.  
 
The leading online betting firm can reveal that backing a Conservative majority has been the most popular bet this week, but also puts Tory seats over/under at 340.5, significantly reduced from early projections which had Boris' part winning upwards of 365 seats. 
 
Jeremy Corbyn looks unlikely to lead a Labour majority government, which can be backed at 25/1, but he's just 7/2 to head a coalition government and be named Prime Minister after the 2019 election.  
 
Ryan Halliwell, trading spokesmen for Sporting Index, said:Betting trends over the past 48 hours or so suggest a Conservative majority at 4/9 is looking more likely than ever, and provided Boris can navigate the last few hours of the campaign without any further gaffes, he should be settling back in to No.10 over the weekend.“  

SNP TO MISS OUT ON 50

SNP to gain eight seats, but fall short of 50+ target 



Wednesday 11th December, 2019 – Former Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson promised to 'skinny dip Loch Lomond' should the SNP secure 50+ seas in Thursday's general election, and betting firm Sporting Index share her reservations by predicting they will only secure 43.  
 
Nicola Sturgeon and co. are aiming to exceed 50 seats - a result which they secured in 2015, securing a record 56 seats for the nationalist party - but betting in the last 48 hours suggest they will still fall short of that target. 
 
Punters buying SNP seats over the course of the last month suggested Sturgeon's party were building momentum, but that now looks set to have run it's course and the political spread betting experts now expect the SNP to only gain an additional eight seats.  
 
Ryan Halliwell, trading spokesmen for Sporting Index, said:We were seeing slow but steady interest in punters buying SNP seats in the build up to the election, but patterns in the last 48 hours suggest Nicola Sturgeon's party will claim 43 in the upcoming vote.“  



BARRY GERAGHTY SAN DOWN REVIEW 

Barry Geraghty: Decision was very harsh and I feel sorry for the lads at Sandown  

Thursday 12th December, 2019 – Leading National Hunt jockey and Sporting Index ambassador Barry Geraghty's latest blog looks back on last Saturday at Sandwon and discusses his rides on the first day of the International Meeting at Cheltenham.   
 
“It was great to land the Tingle Creek with Defi Du Seuil at Sandown last Saturday. I thought it was a very good performance, but there's still more improvement to come which is the exciting thing about him.  
 
“He travelled brilliantly and jumped very well, though he did get in close to the water and the ditch but I think he can only get better. I had to ask him a few questions a long way out and he picked up really well, while he showed a great battling mentality to get up and beat Un De Sceaux, who's one of the best two-milers about..  
 
“I've ridden the likes of Sprinter Sacre and Moscow Flyer before and I think Defi could be on his way to the very top.  

TORY SUPPORT TUMBLES

Voting turnout spikes as Tory support tumbles 



Thursday 12th December, 2019 Sporting Index are reporting heavy early support against the Conservatives this morning, with nearly all customers betting on the election deciding to sell Tory seats.  
 
The spread betting firm, who had previously quoted 351 for the number of seats set to turn blue, have had to drastically revise that down to a mark of 338 and further pressure could see that number slide further. 
 
Labour have been the beneficiaries of the early Tory selling spree, gaining 16 seats to sit on a predicted mark 224. 
 
Sporting Index are also betting on voter turnout and punters have been keen to buy the firm's quote 67% suggesting this election could yet produce the highest turnout since 1997 when 71% of the country had their say.  
 
With so many buyers, anything north of 67.5% is already being touted as a 'diaster' for the firm, who are now “praying for rain and wind“ to prevent ta higher turnout than first forecasted.“  
 



BARRY GERAGHTY ASCOT PREVIEW 

Barry Geraghty: Rain running into Swinley Bottom is a big concern 


Friday 20th December, 2019 – Leading National Hunt jockey and Sporting Index ambassador Barry Geraghty's latest blog looks back on last week's winners at Cheltenham and previews Saturday's racing at Ascot.
 
It's always nice to ride Cheltenham winners, so it was great to have two at the International meeting last week.  
 
Chantry House was good and it was a nice introduction to hurdles for him.  
 
He will have learned a lot from that and will improve plenty for it, and he's certainly a horse with an exciting future.  
 
He's a point-to-point winner, so he's not going to have a problem getting further, but he showed enough speed and class to win over 2m as well.  
 
Dame De Compagnie also won well, which I suppose she was entitled to do so on the back of her run in the Greatwood. 
 
Given she'd had such a long time off the track you couldn't be happier with her and hopefully she can build on that again.“  
 


BARRY GERAGHTY LEOPARDSTOWN PREVIEW 

Barry Geraghty: Epatante ticks all the boxes for a Champion Hurdle 

Friday 27th December, 2019 – Leading National Hunt jockey and Sporting Index ambassador Barry Geraghty's latest blog looks back on a good day at Kempton and previews Saturday's action at Leopardstown.  
 
“It was a great start to the day at Kempton with Fred winning the novices' hurdle.  
 
“I'd say the step back in trip and return to a flatter track really helped him. The last thing Nicky (Henderson) said when he legged me up was I think he'll love the track.   
 
“He's a lovely raw type with plenty of speed and he should continue to improve.  
 
Epatante was very impressive in the Christmas Hurdle.  
 
“She settled well, much better than at Cheltenham last season, showed great pace, jumped really well and won with plenty up her sleeve in the end.  
 
“Nicky asked me 'what do we do now?' so I told him, win the Champions Hurdle!.  
 
“She's gone favourite for the race and it's hard to argue against that based on what she showed.“  
 



BARRY GERAGHTY LEOPARDSTOWN REVIEW 

Barry Geraghty: Sizing John has been on the go since the autumn 

Monday 30th December, 2019 – Leading National Hunt jockey and Sporting Index ambassador Barry Geraghty's latest blog looks ahead to the return of Sizing John and reviews a close call at Leopardstown.  
 
After two years off the track, all eyes will be on Sizing John's return in the 2m3½f Punchestown Hurdle(1:45pm) on New Year's Eve.  
 
“I think Robbie (Power) will be on the sidelines for a week or so following his fall at Leopardstown on Saturday and it's a great ride to pick up.  
 
“I've been lucky enough to ride a fair bit for Jessie (Harrington) over the years and I've had over 150 winners for the yard.  
 
“I've spoken to Jessie and she said he's in great form. He's been doing plenty of work, the yard are very happy with him and it looks like a nice race to bring him back in.  
 
“He's been on the go since the autumn and has had a lot of work put into him so he should be ready to roll.