Politics Spread Betting
elections. See below for a number of our most popular markets and how they work.
UK General Election Seat Markets
This is a prediction on how many seats the main UK political parties will win at a general election.
There are 650 seats in the British Parliament (House of Commons) and traders create a spread on the total number of seats the likes of the Conservative, Labour, UK Independence and Scottish National parties will claim.
For example, Labour might be projected to win 283-289 seats. If you expected Labour to win more than 289 you would buy at that price. Similarly, if you estimated the party to win less than 283 seats you would sell.
How much you win, or lose, is calculated by how right, or wrong, you are. If Labour won 293 seats then buyers would make a profit of four times their original stake (293-289=4).
Sellers at 283 would lose 10 times their original stake in those circumstances (293-283=10).
Turnout Percentage Market
This is a prediction on what the official turnout percentage will be for an election. Figures are taken from the Electoral Commission.
If the market was pitched at 62-66, buyers would need a turnout percentage over 66 to make a profit. Sellers would need the turnout to be lower than 62. If the turnout was 63, 64 or 65% then both buyers and sellers would make a small loss.
Party Share of the Vote
These are spreads on what percentage of the vote nominated parties get for an election.
So the Liberal Democrat’s spread might be 13-16. If you anticipated a bigger vote share than 16% you would buy, and likewise, if you expected a smaller share than 13% you would sell.
Most Seats Index
This is a simple index on which party will win the most seats in an election.
For example, the index is pitched at 44-52 with points awarded as follows: 100 points if Conservatives achieve the most seats, 0 points if Labour achieve the most seats and 50 points if any other party achieve the most seats. Sellers at 44 would only win money if Labour won the most seats. Buyers at 52 would only win money if the Conservatives won the most seats. In the unlikely event a third party won the most seats both buyers and sellers would be losers, but losses would be restricted.