Champions League Matchday 6 - Spread Betting Preview
How the Champions League Outright Index is shaping up ahead of the group deciders
The final round of Champions League group games will be packed full of drama as several big teams are battling to stay in the competition. Premier League giants Liverpool need a strong win over Napoli if they are to advance, while Tottenham must go to the Nou Camp in search of a positive result against Barcelona. Lyon and Shakhtar Donestsk are also playing for their futures in the competition, and PSG will need to beat Red Star Belgrade. We should therefore be in for an exciting couple of days in the Champions League and just 16 teams will remain standing by the end of Wednesday.
The Champions League Outright Index has shifted drastically since Europe’s premier competition began in September. Liverpool were among the favourites to go on and clinch the trophy after beating PSG 3-2 in their opener at Anfield. Last year’s runners-up played with swagger and panache and the Outright Index on them got considerably shorter. However, they lost three of their next four games: a 1-0 reverse at Napoli, a shock 2-0 defeat to Red Star Belgrade and then a 2-1 loss in the rematch with PSG in Paris last time out. Now they need to beat Napoli 1-0 or by two clear goals in their final game as a 2-1 or 3-2 victory would see them crash out of the competition.
Liverpool teetering on a knife edge
The Champions League Spread Betting market on Liverpool winning the Champions League has now gone out to 11-14, while Napoli are at 15-18. One of them will be out of the tournament by 10pm on Tuesday and the spread on the other one will have likely gotten shorter. If you think Liverpool can vanquish Napoli and go on to win the tournament, now is the time to back Jurgen Klopp’s men.
In the Champions League Outright Index, the winner of the competition gets 100 points, the runner-up gets 75 points, the semi-finalists get 50 points, teams that fall at the quarter-final stage are awarded 25 points and teams eliminated in the last 16 get 10 points. Teams that fail to escape the group stage get zero points. Man City, Barcelona, Juventus, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Borussia Dortmund, Man Utd, Roma, Porto, Ajax and Schalke are all already through to the last 16.
Pep Guardiola’s marauding Man City side are currently the favourites, with an Outright Index of 46-49. That means you can either sell at 46 or buy at 49.
If you sell at 46, you will hope they crash out in the last 16. That would make up just 10 points, 36 under the sell price, so you would earn 36 times your stake. If you wagered £10, you would make a profit of £360. (46 sell price – 10 points = 36) and (36 x £10 staked = £360). But if Guardiola’s men went on to lose in the semi-finals, they would end up with 50 points, 4 over the sell price, and £10 staked would mean you’d lose £40.
If you bought at 49 for £2 and they went on to win the Champions League, earning 100 points, you would make £102 in profit (100 points – 49 buy price = 51) & (51 x £2 staked = £102). But if they lost at the quarter-final stage they would only be awarded 25 points, 24 under the buy price and you would lose £48.
Liverpool are 11-14 on the Outright Index, so if you bought now at 14 for £2 and they went on to win the Champions League, you would make a £172 profit. If they made it through to the semis your profit would be £72. But if they failed to make the last 16 you would lose £28. PSG are currently trading on the Outright Index at 34-37 and that could change if they surge past Red Star.
Tottenham fans praying for a Nou Camp masterclass
Tottenham are currently at 8-11 and Inter Milan, who host already eliminated PSV, are priced at 12-15 on the Champions League Outright Index, showing the enormity of the task Harry Kane and co face at the Nou Camp on Tuesday night. However, Barcelona have already won the group and they can afford to rest players ahead of upcoming La Liga fixtures, so Spurs fans will be praying for a helping hand in that respect.
Lyon travel to Hoffenheim knowing that a point would see them through. They took four points off of Man City in the group stage and their confidence levels should be high. They are 8-11 in the Champions League Outright Index, while Shakhtar Donetsk are 5-7. It will be fascinating to see which of these teams makes it through, and these will be the most eagerly anticipated fixtures on the final two evenings of the group stage. However, Europe’s biggest teams are already looking further ahead.
Barcelona fans demand more
Barcelona are second in the Champions League Outright Index, priced at 44-47. They will bid to make it past the quarter-final stage for the first time since the 2014-15 season, when they won the Champions League. Since then they have watched arch rivals Real Madrid lift the famous trophy three years in a row and the fans are demanding more from their team. Real have been hampered by the losses of Zinedine Zidane and Cristiano Ronaldo in the summer and their Outright Index is currently set at 34-37. That leaves them below Juventus, Ronaldo’s new club, and Bayern Munich.
Atletico Madrid are perennial heavyweights in the knockout stage, although they failed to reach the last 16 last season. They dropped down to the Europa League and won that instead, but they are through to the last 16 of the Champions League this year and priced at 29-32. Borussia Dortmund lead the Bundesliga from Bayern Munich and they have also qualified from Group A. It just remains to be seen whether they or Atletico will finish top of the pile. Dortmund, led by exciting youngsters, are priced at 23-26. If you think Jose Mourinho can turn things around at Man Utd, the Red Devils are also 23-26.
Betting on the Champions League Outright Index is sure to increase the excitement you feel as we head into the knockout stages of this elite competition, and what makes this such an attractive option is that you could still make a profit even if your selected club fails to win the competition.
Which of these European footballing heavyweights do you fancy to make the final in Madrid? Be sure to check out the Champions League Outright Index ahead of the last round of group games!