Chelsea v Man City - Spread Betting Preview

Chelsea v Manchester City Preview: Are Chelsea on the verge of elimination from the title race?

After both of these teams went into the October international break neck and neck, this matchup was earmarked as a potential title decider. It still is, but it will `decide' whether or not Chelsea can still be considered title contenders, and successive away defeats (to Tottenham and Wolves) have undoubtedly made this match a must-win for Chelsea. Many already consider Chelsea to be out of the running, but failure to beat City on Saturday will surely mark the point of no return.

That said, Maurizio Sarri's men have the accolade of being unbeaten at home under his tenure. With the exception of a blip in the 0-0 draw against Everton last month, the West End giants have been accomplished scorers in home games throughout the campaign. Albeit against weaker defences than City's, Chelsea have won by a margin of two or more goals in five of their last six Premier League home games, but City's stats remain exceptional in several departments.

41 points from 15 games is just one short of the same tally City had after 15 games last season. Pep Guardiola's men have also scored a comfortable league-high of 3.43 goals per match across their last seven, and they are the only team yet to lose a first-half this season. With City's attack as lethal as ever, we will focus on the `Player Goal Minutes' spread betting market for this one.

`Player Goal Minutes' explained

As you can also read in the Football Spread Betting explained section, the `settle' value - which acts as the key component of how much you could win or lose in the Player Goal Minutes market - is determined by the total sum of the minutes in which goals are scored by one player. This can also apply to the goals said player scores in just one half, or another designated interval.

For this example, we will use City's 2-0 victory over Chelsea in the 2018 Community Shield as the model, in which Sergio Aguero scored goals in the 13th and 58th minutes, which created a final settle value of 71 (13 + 58 = 71).

For this weekend's match, the spread for Sergio Aguero is 31-34, with 31 the `sell' price and 34 the `buy' price. Therefore, if the Community Shield result and goal times were to be repeated this weekend, and you wagered £2 on the `buy', you would win back 37 times your wager (£74) based on the following calculation:

Settle (71) - Buy Price (34) = 37
37 x Wager (£2) = £74

As ever though, there is a cautionary overtone. For instance, let's say that Aguero scored just one goal in the match, in the 13th minute. Meaning the settle value is just 13, creating a negative makeup of -21 (34 buy price -13 = 21), meaning that you would lose 21x your initial wager - £2 x 21= £42.

City slickers

At the risk of waxing too lyrical about City, Chelsea will also have to overcome a psychological disadvantage. Our current Chelsea v Manchester City Spread Betting Markets show that City are favourites in every department, thanks in no small part to their results over Chelsea last season.

2017/18 saw Manchester City do the double over Chelsea, with 1-0 wins in both league fixtures. The first meeting of last term also provided a piece of poetic justice, where Stamford Bridge `reject' Kevin De Bruyne scored the winner at his old stomping ground, and all but ended the London club's title defence six months early.

In winning the Community Shield back in August, City have already made a further, albeit minor, reinforcement to the club's newfound hoodoo over Chelsea. If that result is included in the all-time head-to-head stakes, City have now beaten Chelsea three times in a row, completing such a run for the first time since the spring of 2010.

There is ultimately little else that can be said about City. Their spread values in the outright market remain significantly higher, even more so than closest rivals Liverpool, and it clearly reflects the undying fact that momentum is everything in a title race. City have it by the proverbial bucketful, with an impressive 41 points out of a possible 45 already in the bag.

Find out more about the Player Goal Minutes Market and other exciting markets at our Sports Spread Betting Training Centre!

Please note: Spread Betting involves risk. Losses may exceed deposits.

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