Premier League 2019/20 Points Preview
Sporting Index's Premier League 2019/20 Points Preview
Manchester City will see off the threat of Liverpool and surge to a third consecutive Premier League title in 2019/20, according to our traders. Pep Guardiola’s men have been assigned a Premier League Points spread of 92 to 93.5 for the upcoming campaign, whereas the Reds are projected to accumulate between 85.5 and 87 points. The Premier League Points index also makes grim reading for Brighton fans, as it has the Seagulls finishing 18th and suffering relegation. Yet Arsenal supporters should be pleased to see their team finishing above Man Utd and Chelsea and finally securing that elusive top four spot.
Another Guardiola Masterclass on The Horizon?
Our traders crunch the numbers ahead of every Premier League season and make predictions about how many points each team will secure. You have the opportunity to either buy at the upper price if you feel they have pitched it too low, or sell at the lower price if you think that team will struggle. Last season, they predicted that Man City would finish top of the pile with around 88 points, and that Liverpool would finish seven points back and take the runner-up spot.
They guessed correctly in terms of where each team would finish, but in the end Man City needed to win their final 14 games of the season in order to achieve 98 points and finish just a single point clear of Jurgen Klopp’s side. Our expert traders also correctly predicted Tottenham and Chelsea finishing in the top four, Huddersfield and Cardiff being relegated and mid-table finishes for the likes of Leicester, Bournemouth and West Ham.
However, they do not always get it right. Last summer saw newly promoted Fulham spend a fortune in the transfer market, and our traders expected them to secure a comfortable mid-table finish. The Cottagers were projected to earn 43 points, but in the end, they only managed 26 and they were relegated. The traders expected Brighton to go down last season, but they finished 17th to scrape survival. The pre-season projections also underestimated how many points teams like Wolves and Watford would earn.
This time around, our traders have significantly increased the amount of points Man City are projected to earn. They managed 100 in 2017/18 and 98 last season – the two highest points tallies in Premier League history – and anyone that bought on the upper end of their pre-season points spreads made a healthy profit.
This time they are expected to accrue 92 – 93.5. If you think they will manage more than 93.5, buy at that price. Your stake is multiplied by the number of points by which they exceed that tally. If you buy at £20 and they end up with 98 points again, you would make a £100 profit (98 – 93.5 = 4.5 and 4.5 x £20 = £90). If you think the Guardiola magic will run out, sell at 92. If you sell for £10 and they only end up with 88 points, you make a £40 profit. However, if they end up with 98 again, a £5 bet on the sell price would incur a loss of £30.
Man City have played utterly scintillating football over the past couple of seasons and it is easy to see why they are the favourites for glory once again. They managed 98 points last term, despite star player Kevin De Bruyne being injured for most of the campaign.
Yet they now have to deal with the retirement of club captain Vincent Kompany, while the likes of Fernandinho, David Silva and Sergio Aguero are in the twilight of their respective careers. They will need big season from De Bruyne and plenty more magic from Bernardo Silva, Raheem Sterling and Aymeric Laporte if they are to match or exceed last season’s haul.
Always the Bridesmaid, Never the Bride Again For Liverpool?
Liverpool secured the third highest points tally in Premier League history last season, but it still was not enough. Their haul of 97 was better than Arsenal, Chelsea or Man Utd have ever managed.
That will be scant consolation for Reds fans, whose wait for a title now extends to 29 years, but they should feel encouraged by their team’s prospects for the season ahead. Their key players are all the right side of 30 and they head into the new season as the champions of Europe. They only lost once in the league last season, Virgil Van Dijk was named PFA Player of the Year and Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mané shared the Golden Ball with Arsenal’s Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
The players have all totally bought into Jurgen Klopp’s philosophy and the way they press is a sight to behold. They are young, energetic, tough and absolutely devastating in attack. There may be further arrivals bolstering the squad, but Liverpool do not need much in the way of reinforcements. Does a Premier League Points spread of 85.5 to 87 underestimate the Reds’ potential next season? That is up to you to decide.
Don’t Expect Anyone to Dent the Top Two
Our traders believe Tottenham will achieve a comfortable third-placed finish next season. They cannot, however, see Mauricio Pochettino’s men seriously troubling the top two, but they expect Spurs to finish well clear of the rest of the so-called Big Six.
Tottenham are expected to rack up somewhere between 73 and 74.5 points next season. They have finally started spending again, having broken the club record to bring in Tanguy Ndombele from Lyon, and none of their big players have left, so you might decide they will improve upon last season’s tally of 71 points. Yet they have issues at full-back, and you might feel like Pochettino’s magic touch will run out. That is the beauty of this market: it puts you in charge and the more right you are, the more you win.
Gooners can rejoice, as Unai Emery’s embattled side will finish fourth, according to our traders. They have missed out on a top-four spot for the last three seasons and a lack of Champions League football has put a serious dent in their finances.
But Man Utd, sixth place finishers last season, looked unconvincing for large parts under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, while key man Paul Pogba wants out. Meanwhile, Chelsea have sold Eden Hazard to Real Madrid and a two-window transfer ban prevents them from signing a replacement.
Our traders expect Arsenal to capitalise on this and finish fourth. They have been assigned a projected total of 68-69.5 points, leaving them narrowly ahead of Man Utd at 67-68.5 and Chelsea at 66-67.5. The Sporting Index traders cannot see any smaller teams breaking into the top six, with Everton expected to finish seventh ahead of Leicester. Wolves, West Ham, Southampton, Watford, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace can look forward to mid-table obscurity, if the points predictions are to be believed.
A Tight, Tough Battle For Those at The Bottom
Newly promoted clubs Sheff Utd and Norwich are expected to drop straight back down to the Championship, along with Brighton. Our traders have the Blades at 32.5-34 points, the lowest of all the spreads. Last season, Huddersfield managed a mere 16 points and Fulham could only put up 26, but our traders do not expect any teams to struggle so badly in 2019/20.
Do you disagree? Sheff Utd have spent very little in the transfer market thus far, and they could find it difficult to adapt to the rigours of the top flight. If you think they will be the whipping boys of the Premier League next season, sell at 32.5. But if you reckon they will enjoy a strong campaign, buy at 34.
Norwich and Brighton have been assigned an identical spread of 35.5-37. The Canaries won the Championship last season, but they have also been pretty inactive and unambitious in the transfer market. Fulham last season might serve as a cautionary tale, as they spent more than £100 million on new players and still went down, leaving them with a crippling wage bill and potentially hampering their chances of bouncing straight back up to the Premier League.
Norwich will mainly go with the team that took them up, with a few key additions. If you think that will be enough, you can buy at 37, or if you expect them to struggle, sell at 35.5.
Brighton axed Chris Hughton after a poor second half of the 2018/19 season, and replaced him with Swansea’s Graham Potter. It is a big gamble, as Potter has never managed in the Premier League before, but Brighton owner Tony Bloom is a professional poker player and he will believe this a gamble worth taking.
The Seagulls have spent big on Leandro Trossard this summer, and they have a solid defence, so you might disagree with our traders, or you might expect them to struggle.
The Sporting Index trading team expects Aston Villa’s summer spending spree to carry them to safety, along with Newcastle and Burnley. The Magpies are priced at 36-37.5 in this market, which would leave them 17th in the table, just above the dreaded dotted line.
They have just lost inspirational manager Rafa Benitez and fans were furious to see former Sunderland boss Steve Bruce replace him. Star striker Ayoze Perez has also moved to Everton, while Salomon Rondon will not return for a second loan spell, so Newcastle look light on goals. That might convince you to sell at 36 points on them, but if you think Bruce will prove his doubters wrong then you can buy at 37.5.
The Premier League Points market is a really exciting option as it gives you an interest in a particular team throughout the entire campaign. Our traders will be regularly updating it once the season begins, in order to reflect results, so keep checking in to see if you think you can beat them.
We are now just weeks away from the start of the new campaign and excitement is reaching a fever pitch among fans, so get your points bets on and enjoy another exhilarating season in the most entertaining league in the world.
Think we’ve pitched a team’s season points prediction too high/low? Be sure to check out the Premier League Points spread ahead of another rollercoaster season in the Premier League.