Premier League Points Spread | 2020/21
Premier League 2020/21 Points Spread Guide
A rejuvenated Man City would regain the Premier League title after bolstering their squad with exciting new arrivals, according to our 2020-21 Premier League points prediction model.
The Sporting Index traders predict Pep Guardiola’s men to pick up 88.5-90 points next season. That would see them finish narrowly ahead of defending champions Liverpool, with the Reds projected to earn 86-87.5 points in the Premier League spread betting.
Man City broke the Premier League points record as they sauntered to the title in 2017-18, and then they finished a point clear of Liverpool the following term. Yet Jurgen Klopp’s side annihilated the competition last season, finishing 18 points clear of Man City to end their 30-year title drought.
Man City have responded by signing Nathan Aké and Ferran Torres, and further arrivals are expected. Klopp seems reluctant to disrupt the harmony of the Liverpool dressing room by splashing out on superstar signings, so we could be in for a much more gripping title race in 2020-21.
You have the ability to pit your wits against the Sporting Index traders. If you think Man City will flop once again, you can sell at 88.5. If you believe they will return to peak form, you can buy at 90. You have the option to buy at 87.5 if you think Liverpool will make a mockery of that points projection, or sell at 86 if you think they will suffer a title-winning hangover and struggle next time around.
Sporting Index has made a points prediction on every single team in the Premier League, so you can buy if you think we have gone too low, or sell if you think we have gone to low on some of our predictions. Many of our predictions last season sailed wide of the mark, as Liverpool, Sheff Utd, Burnley and Brighton vastly exceeded our expectations and Man City, Arsenal, Tottenham, Everton, Bournemouth, Watford and Norwich earned far fewer points that we predicted.
The Race for a Top Four Finish
We expect Man Utd and Chelsea to complete the top four for the second season in a row. The Red Devils enjoyed a remarkable upturn in form after signing Bruno Fernandes in the January transfer window and ended up clinching third place. We expect their upward trajectory to continue, and Man Utd are projected to earn 72-73.5 points next season. They have just crashed out of the Europa League in rather tame fashion, but we believe they will establish themselves as the third best team in England next season.
Chelsea have already been extremely busy in the transfer window. Timo Werner should add potency up front and Hakim Ziyech will increase the team’s creativity, while the Blues are linked with all manner of major signings. We expect Chelsea to shake off the disappointment of their FA Cup final defeat and secure another fourth placed finish under Frank Lampard, with 69.5-71 points. They only managed 66 last term, so you can sell if you think they will struggle to reach 70 points, or buy if you think they will go well past 71.
That could spell bad news for North London duo Arsenal and Tottenham, who are expected to finish fifth and sixth respectively. The Gunners have been reborn under the expert tutelage of Mikel Arteta, Guardiola’s protégé, and they will be buoyed by their cup final success. Captain Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang is reportedly on the brink of signing a new contract, Willian has joined from Chelsea and more new arrivals are on the cards. Arsenal finished eighth last season, with just 56 points, but we expect them to rise to fifth next time around, with 62.5-64 points.
That would leave the Gunners just ahead of Spurs, who are projected to pick up 61.5-63 points. They struggled last term, and fans will be worried by Harry Kane’s recent injury record. Spurs are not exactly flush with cash after investing in a shiny new stadium, so their summer spending could be minimal. They earned 59 points last season, and we only expect a modest improvement on that tally in 2020-21, but you can always buy at 63 if you think we have missed the mark, or sell if you think Jose Mourinho will struggle.
Our model sees Wolves finishing seventh for the third season in a row. They will be exhausted after their Europa League exploits last term, and Nuno Espirito Santo will hope to bulk out his thin squad. Keeping hold of Raul Jimenez will be a priority, We expect Wolves to secure 57-58.5 points, leaving them just ahead of Leicester, with 55-56.5. The Foxes finished fifth with 62 points last season, but they were dismal from the New Year onwards, so we think their tally will decrease in 2020-21. We believe Everton will return to the top half of the table, with 52-53.5 points leaving them ninth, with Southampton in 10th on 49-50.5 points after enjoying a strong finish to the previous campaign.
We see newly promoted Leeds enjoying a strong return to life in the top flight under experienced manager Marcelo Bielsa. They won the Championship in convincing fashion, and they appear to have the physicality to deal with the rigours of Premier League football. We believe Leeds and West Ham will finish level on 43.5-45 points, with Brighton on 42-43.5. The Seagulls ended up with 41 points last season, but they have already signed Joel Veltman and Adam Lallana, and we expect them to improve next term.
The biggest fallers in our index are Sheff Utd. We expected the Blades to finish bottom of the table last season, but they proved us wrong. Chris Wilder’s men were still battling for a Champions League place will just a few rounds of fixtures remaining, but they ultimately slumped down to ninth place after losing their final three games of the season. We expect them to struggle next season, and we have assigned them a Premier League Points Index of 41.5-43, a significant drop on last season’s 54-point haul.
That leaves Burnley, Crystal Palace, Newcastle, Aston Villa, West Brom and Fulham to contest the relegation battle, according to our model. Newly promoted sides West Brom and Fulham regularly yo-yo between the Premier League and Championship, and we expect them to finish 19th and 20th respectively next season. We believe it will be tight, and we have assigned the Cottagers a Points Index of 34-35.5, while West Brom are pitched at 34.5-36. Both teams will need to invest in their squads, but Fulham will be wary of spending too much money after forking out more than £100 million and still suffering relegation the last time they were promoted.
Aston Villa beat the drop by the skin of their teeth last season, but we do not think that lightning will strike twice. We have Dean Smith’s men finishing 18th, with 35.5-37 points. Newcastle could be dejected after the Saudi Arabian takeover fell through, and we think they will finish 17th, with 37.5-39 points. Crystal Palace were winless in nine Premier League games after the restart in June, and we predict they will end up 16th next term, with just 38-9.5 points. Burnley were in fine form after the restart and finished 10th, with 54 points, but we believe they will tumble down to 15th and secure only 39.5-41 points next season, so you can either buy or sell depending on how you think the Clarets will fare.
Make your predictions count with Sporting Index’s Premier League Points 2020/21 Spread this season.