Premier League Preview - Gameweek 9 Odds & Spreads
Premier League Gameweek 9 Weekend Betting Preview
The season’s second international break has come to an end, bringing a welcome return to club football and the Premier League. Manchester City were shocked by Wolves before the break, opening up a daunting eight point deficit between themselves and title rivals Liverpool, who triumphed over Leicester City in a tetchy exchange at Anfield. Pep Guardiola’s side travel to Crystal Palace for Saturday’s evening kick off, in what is increasingly looking like a must win for the current league champions, whilst Liverpool face off against rivals Manchester United.
Everton v West Ham - Will Marco Silva Avoid the Chop?
We may only be nine games into the new season, but rumours about managerial dismissals are already rife around several clubs in the division. The name leading the charge in the race to be sacked first is Everton’s Marco Silva. The beleaguered Portuguese boss has overseen a disastrous start to the season with his side, despite another big spending spree, currently occupying one of the three relegation spots. Their return of just five goals is the third worst in the league, and conceding thirteen goals shows that the Merseyside outfit have issues at both ends of the pitch.
On the flip side, Everton’s opponents West Ham have begun their season with a level of consistency that Silva’s men can only hope to replicate. The side from East London have recovered well from their 0-5 opening day loss to Man City and were unbeaten in six games before slipping up to Crystal Palace before the internationals.
Everton v West Ham Odds & Spreads
With their on-field problems, it might be surprising to some to see that Everton still come into their Saturday lunchtime kick off as favourites in our football odds for this game. You can find Everton at 20/21, a draw is currently at 11/4 and West Ham come up as outsiders at 13/5.
Our traders have given the toffees a Win Index of 14.25-15.75 in the spreads, with a first Everton goal minutes coming in at 45-48. West Ham’s Win Index stands at 8-9.5 with their first goal minutes spread currently at 54-57. Everton’s leaky defence this season has seen our traders set the Total Goals index at 2.85-3.05.
With this fixture being between two sides who don’t seem particularly interested in the art of defending, it might be the best time to check out our new promotion, the Bad Beat special. If you back one of the sides offered in the promotion and they lose the match but win on the xG (expected goals) measure, we will refund your stake. For those dominant Everton performances that don’t quite yield a result, this could be the perfect option.
Bournemouth v Norwich - Can Norwich Find Some Defensive Prowess?
With one massive Manchester City-shaped exception, Norwich City’s season hasn’t been the smoothest experience so far. Whilst their prolific form in front of goal thanks to the likes of Teemu Pukki has made them a great side to watch, it’s at the back that they’ve really run into problems. Twenty-one goals conceded, five of which came in their previous game against Aston Villa, is currently the worst record in the division.
For Bournemouth, it has been business as usual, having made another comfortable start to what is now their fifth season of top-flight football.
Bournemouth v Norwich Odds & Spreads
Norwich’s allergic reaction to a clean sheet means that they go into their trip to the south coast as heavy, heavy underdogs. An away Norwich win can be priced at 3/1, a draw is currently sitting at 10/3, with the odds on favourites Bournemouth to win available at 8/11.
A goal fest could be on the cards at the Vitality Stadium on Saturday, with both sides proving themselves to be rather handy in front of goal so far this season. Our traders have priced the Total Goals at 3.4-3.6, with the first match goal spread coming in at 28-30.5. Bournemouth have a Win Index of 15.5-17 whilst Norwich are at 7-8.5.
Aston Villa v Brighton - Who Will Steal the Points in this Potential Six-Pointer?
Both Aston Villa and Brighton come into their Saturday fixture off the back of dominant morale boosting victories before the international break, against Norwich and Spurs respectively. However, both sides remain in the bottom half of the table, making this a potentially crucial matchup for both Dean Smith and Graham Potter. Aston Villa have scored thirteen goals so far this season, which is more than the likes of West Ham and Manchester United, though five of those did come against Norwich in the last round of fixtures. On the flip side, they have conceded twelve times this season, with Bournemouth being the only side above them in the table to have conceded more.
The addition of Adam Webster has helped Brighton maintain their reputation as one of the great defensive units in the league, but it has once again been the same story as last season up front for the Seagulls, hitting a joint fourth worst eight goals so far this season. Despite unearthing Ireland debutant Aaron Connolly and his two goal-haul against Spurs, Brighton are some way off their expected goals, with the Seagulls’ xG currently standing over 3 points higher than their actual tally at 11.24.
Aston Villa v Brighton - Odds & Spreads
This looks a tough match to call, which is reflected in the betting. Thanks to their dominant display against Norwich, Aston Villa edge into favouritism at 27/20. If you think Graham Potter’s men are on a roll after their demolition of Spurs last time out, you can get a Brighton win at 2/1, with a draw coming in at 23/10.
Aston Villa’s Win Index for the game sits at 12-13.5, with Brighton’s currently sitting at 10.25-11.75. Brighton’s good defensive record in recent times could be worth considering as we have priced the game’s total goals at an interesting 2.7-2.9, with the First Match Goal coming in at 33.5-36.5 minutes. Aston Villa did recently beat a youthful Brighton team 1-3 at the AMEX Stadium in the Carabao Cup but this one is sure to be a tougher prospect for Dean Smith’s men.
Chelsea v Newcastle - Can Bruce Secure Another Giant Killing at the Bridge?
Only Liverpool and Manchester City have outscored Chelsea this season, with Tammy Abraham’s eight goals the joint highest in the league. The form of Abraham, Mason Mount and Fikayo Tomori has won the admiration of England manager Gareth Southgate, who recently called the trio up for international duty.
Despite the less than positive reception surrounding the appointment of manager Steve Bruce in the summer, Newcastle have so far performed admirably this season. Currently sitting in sixteenth position, they have already secured two impressive victories over Tottenham and Manchester United. However goals continue to be an issue for Bruce’s side, netting only five in their first eight games, the second worst in the league.
Chelsea v Newcastle - Odds & Spreads
Despite their two top-six scalps this season, it’s perhaps unsurprising to see that Newcastle are heavy underdogs going into the match at Stamford Bridge on Saturday. The Toon are currently sitting at 9/1, making them one of the biggest underdogs from this round of fixtures. You can find Lampard’s Chelsea side at 3/10 odds to triumph as favourites.
It’s also unsurprising to see Chelsea’s Win Index sitting at a lofty 20-21.5, whilst Newcastle’s is currently at 3-4.
Leicester v Burnley - Can Leicester Stay in the Hunt for Europe?
Brendan Rodgers deserves a lot of credit for the start his Leicester City have made to this season’s Premier League. Playing attractive attacking football, the Foxes have already claimed significant scalps in turning over Tottenham and giving Newcastle an absolute drubbing before most recently pushing Liverpool all the way at Anfield. James Maddison has impressed with his creativity throughout the season, and proven goalscorer Jamie Vardy already has five goals to his name in the league.
Burnley have, once again, shown themselves to be one of the masters of survival under Sean Dyche, picking up crucial wins at home against Southampton and Norwich, whilst securing some helpful points away to Brighton and Aston Villa. Their only losses this season have come to Arsenal and Liverpool so you can be certain they are going to make Saturday afternoon as tough as possible for Rodgers and his side.
Leicester v Burnley - Odds & Spreads
Leicester have hopes of becoming a regular top six side and now command a level of respect that is reflective in our traders’ odds of 1/2 favourites for this game. The draw is currently at 16/5, with a Burnley win at 11/2.
Tottenham v Watford - Can Pochettino Finally Find a Win Against Lowly Watford?
There isn’t a Spurs fan in the world who wasn’t happy to see the international break roll around. It has been a disastrous couple of weeks for the Champions League runners up, following the Bayern Munich demolition and the shock Brighton result before the break. Plenty in the footballing world must now be wondering just how long Pochettino has left at White Hart Lane.
In a similar tale of disaster, last year’s FA Cup finalists Watford have shocked football betting markets everywhere by plummeting from their eleventh placed finish last season, to rock bottom of this season’s Premier League table. The only side still without a win to their name, the appointment of Quique Sanchez Flores is increasingly looking like a gamble that shows no signs of paying off. Their four goals scored and twenty conceded is by far the worst difference in the league, but Watford fans will hope for better times ahead with the team currently underperforming in both xG and xGA (expected goals against) metrics. The stats show Watford could expect to have scored 10.93 goals and concede only 15.34 so it may yet be a case of bad luck rather than just bad performances.
Tottenham v Watford - Odds & Spreads
In what has to be an absolute must-win for two teams in desperate need of some momentum, our traders still have Tottenham as strong favourites for three points at 21/50. Watford’s wait for their first win of the season looks set to continue if the odd are to be believed as we have them at 6/1, with a draw coming in at 15/4.
Tottenham’s Win Index is currently at 18.5-19.75, with Watford at 4.25-5.5. Tottenham have conceded ten goals in their past two games, whilst Watford have the second leakiest defence in the league, so it is no surprise to see Total Goals at 3.1-3.3
Wolves v Southampton - Are Wolves Over Their Tough Start?
After what was a challenging start to their season with opening games against Leicester City, Manchester United and their first Europa League adventure, Nuno Espirito Santo and his Wolves side look to have turned a corner. Having not won in their first six games, Wolves have claimed consecutive 2-0 wins over Watford and champions Manchester City to climb themselves up to eleventh place in the table.
Southampton come into this in a completely different vein of form however, losing their previous three matches against Bournemouth, Tottenham and Chelsea and slumping to 17th in the table. Their xG shows an unhealthy +4.27 in comparison to the eight goals they have managed this season, which indicates a lack of confidence might just be seeping into the side.
Wolves v Southampton - Odds & Spreads
Wolves’ early season wobbles and subsequent revival see them as favourites for this game, though not by an absolute runaway at 4/ 5. Their 11 goals for and 11 against so far this season makes the draw the second favourite at 13/5, with a surprise Southampton win coming in at 7/2.
Wolves’ Win Index currently stands at 15.25-16.75, with Southampton’s at 7-8.5 in comparison. Out of Wolves’ 11 goals so far this season, four of those have come past the 80 minute mark and the First Match Goal has been priced at 35.5-38.5. Whilst they might score late, neither side have been known for their goalscoring form this season and we’ve set the total goals for this game at just 2.4-2.6.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City - Pep Looks To Bounce Back From Wolves Loss
For the second time this season, Pep Guardiola was left stunned as his Manchester City side slumped to a surprise loss. Though they clawed back a similar deficit last season, the eight point gap between his side and leaders Liverpool is starting to look ominous. Injuries to John Stones and Aymeric Laporte have hit the Citizens hard and they’ve already conceded five more goals than they had at this point last season.
Crystal Palace delivered one of the shocks of the season when they beat Pep Guardiola’s side in December last year. Whilst the Eagles have had a solid start to this campaign, their xGA currently stands at 10.36, +2.36 above their actual goals against tally of 8. Manchester City’s attacking force may not be so forgiving.
Crystal Palace v Manchester City - Odds & Spreads
The last time Manchester City were surprisingly beaten in the league, they replied with an emphatic 8-0 home win against Watford. Whilst Crystal Palace are certainly in a healthier position than Watford were, our traders have a Manchester City Win Index at 20.25-21.5, whilst Palace’s is at 2.75-3.75. In their 8-0 drubbing, Man City scored after less than a minute, though we have the opening goal for this game to come in at 27.5-30 minutes.
In the fixed odds, you can find Manchester City as, quite unsurprisingly, huge favourites at 1/ 4. However, Manchester City did lose back to back games last season, with one of those games being against Crystal Palace, and you can find the Eagles as outsiders at 10/1.
Manchester United v Liverpool - Can Ole Turn Things Around Against Old Rival?
The fact that Manchester United are coming into a game against Liverpool 15 points behind them is one thing, but that they are currently sat two points above the relegation zone really goes to show just how far this side has fallen. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has overseen the worst start to a United Premier League season in 30 years, and things look set to become more painful as they host Liverpool this weekend.
Jurgen Klopp’s side have maintained their winning formula on display last season, flying to the top of the table and opening up an eight point gap over rivals Manchester City. Despite not playing at their very best in every game this season and only keeping two clean sheets all season, a 100% winning record is certainly hard to argue with.
Manchester United v Liverpool - Odds & Spreads
Liverpool’s imperious form has them priced up as favourites at 4/6, with the draw coming in at 3/1. Manchester United’s odds of beating their rivals on home soil is currently at 15/4. Liverpool’s Win Index currently sits at 16-17.5, whereas United come in at 6.5-7.75. Only Manchester City have outscored Liverpool’s total of twenty goals so far this season; we’ve set Total Goals for this game at 2.65-2.85.
This is also the second of our featured Bad Beat games, where your stake will be refunded if either of your selected teams lose the match but come out on top for expected goals.
Sheffield United v Arsenal - Can the Gunners Improve Their Dismal Away Form?
Under Chris Wilder, Sheffield United have made an impressive start to their return to the Premier League. With only seven goals conceded all season, the second best in the entire division, they’ve established themselves as a well-run and steely outfit that even the best of sides have struggled to overcome. Interestingly the Blades should also have scored more goals with an xG of 9.06, some 2.06 goals higher than their actual tally of 7.
Arsenal’s phobia of playing away from home has continued with notable dropped points against Watford and Liverpool. On top of an iffy away form, the addition of David Luiz has scarcely helped the Gunners’ defensive woes with just one clean sheet to their name so far. Despite all of this however, Arsenal have found a level of consistency under Unai Emery which clubs such as Spurs & Man United are missing, and they head into this game in third place.
Sheffield United v Arsenal - Odds & Spreads
With their prolific frontmen continuing to impress, our traders have Arsenal as favourites in this Monday night game at 10/11. Sheffield United’s lack of prowess in front of goal sees them outsiders for the game, currently priced at 11/4.
Sheffield United’s Win Index is at 8-9.5, with Arsenal’s coming in at 14.25-15.75. Our traders have put the Total Goals on the game at 2.85-3.05, as the prolific attack of Arsenal meets the rock-steady defence of United. Up against such a strong back line, we’ve chalked up the first Arsenal goal at 46-49 minutes. The Gunners’ leaky defence could prove costly in this game, and you can find Sheffield United’s first goal at 54-57.
Who do you think will run riot in this weekend’s fixtures? Check out all of our Premier League spread betting markets and latest Premier League odds ahead of another exciting week of Premier League football. All prices quoted are subject to fluctuation.