Premier League Preview | Matchday 10 | Odds & Spreads
Premier League Matchday 10: Weekend Betting Preview
We’ve reached matchday 10 of the 2019/20 Premier League season, and it’s safe to say that things haven’t quite settled down yet. The ‘top six’ look more precarious than ever, Leicester continue to impress, Wolves have drawn again and Watford are still waiting for their first win of the season. League leaders Liverpool saw their eight-point lead cut down to six following their draw away to Manchester United and face a mouth-watering visitor in the increasingly hapless Tottenham. Manchester City are strong favourites in our football odds at home against an in-form Aston Villa and Leicester City face a night under the lights away to Southampton on Friday night.
Southampton v Leicester - Second Place Up For Grabs For Foxes?
Everyone’s favourite ‘second team’, Leicester City come into their away match against Southampton under the lights and in terrific form. Their only defeats this season have come away to Manchester United and Liverpool and they have dropped points in just two other games so far this season, away to Chelsea and at home to Wolves. Brendan Rodgers and co. currently boast a xG (expected goals) of -7.07 fewer than what they’ve actually scored. We’ll leave it up to you decide whether it’s a case of clinical finishing, or simply the luck going for you when you’re on top.
Southampton come into this game fearfully looking over their shoulder at the drop zone. The Saints currently occupy seventeenth in table with eight points to show from their first nine games. Though they have played four of the ‘big six’ so far this season, their xG of +4.64 really showcases just how off the mark Southampton have been, particularly when going forward.
Southampton v Leicester - Odds & Spreads
Southampton haven’t won at home in the league all season and we have them at outsider odds of 19/10 for a surprise win over Leicester this Friday. Leicester’s good form this season has them as favourites at 13/10, whilst a draw is currently priced at 5/2.
As favourites, Leicester City’s Win Index is currently priced 12.25-13.75, whilst Southampton are at 9.75-11.25. Seven of Southampton’s nine goals scored so far this season have come in the second half of games, and we have their first goal priced at 53-56 minutes, with Leicester’s first goal priced at 49-52 minutes.
Manchester City v Aston Villa - Can Pep Close the Gap at The Top?
Its normal service resumed for Manchester City fans following the surreal experience of cheering on Manchester United last Sunday, and they can now look forward to this weekend’s home match against Dean Smith’s Aston Villa. Having put the shock defeat to Wolves before the international break behind them, Guardiola’s City side strung together a measured and composed performance as they left Crystal Palace with a 2-0 win. Whilst City remain the league’s leading scorers with 29, eight ahead of Liverpool, their xPTS (expected points) currently sits at +2.33, which might indicate that they’re ever so slightly failing to see off games in the ways we’re so used to seeing from them.
Aston Villa’s recent form should give them enough reason to be optimistic however. Unbeaten in three and with two wins in a row against relegation rivals Norwich and Brighton, Villa look to be finding their stride in the league after what was a fairly indifferent start. Their fifteen goals scored indicates they’re more attacking than people give them credit for, with their xG currently sitting at -0.87 and showcasing their relative efficiency in front of goal.
Manchester City v Aston Villa - Odds & Spreads
Whilst things might still be rosy for Villa, they go into this game as understandably heavy underdogs at 25/1. Manchester City’s return to form gives them heavy favourite odds of 1/10, with the draw also coming in at an outside 5/2.
Manchester City’s Win Index is currently priced at 22.75-23.5 with Aston Villa’s currently at 1-1.75. We have Total Goals for the game currently priced at 4.1-4.3, with Both Teams To Score currently priced at 45-51. We have the first goal time currently priced at 23.5-26, with the last match goal coming in at 73-76.
Brighton v Everton - Can Graham Potter’s Men Turn Performances into Results?
Whilst they are earning plenty of plaudits for their free flowing and attacking minded football, Brighton are in serious, serious need of a result. The Seagulls may have demolished Spurs before the international break, but their season has been littered with results that don’t quite match their performances, thanks to a combination of silly lapses of judgement and an element of bad luck. Aaron Mooy’s red card against Villa last week was their second of the season, with Matt Targett’s winner being the third occasion that they have conceded a goal after the ninetieth minute.
Everton and Marco Silva got their season back on track with a highly impressive display at home to West Ham last week, emerging as 2-0 winners. In a game that surely had the whole football world scratching their heads as to why they hadn’t been performing like that all season, Everton finally began looking like the side so many of us were tipping to upset the rhythm of the top six this season.
Brighton v Everton - Odds & Spreads
Though they can’t quite boast a consistent string of results, Brighton’s good performances over the course of the season could make this a tough match to call. Our traders have an away Everton win the favourite at 6/4, with a home Brighton win next at 9/5 and the draw coming in at 23/10. Brighton’s Win Index is currently priced at 10.5-12, with Everton’s Win Index priced at a close 11.5-13. Both teams have some of the worst xG ratios to goals scored in the division, with our total goals for the game currently priced at 2.4-2.6.
Watford v Bournemouth - Will Watford Secure Their First Win of The Season?
Whilst they might have been denied by cruel and controversial circumstances last time out, the wait for a win continues to haunt Quique Sanchez Flores and his Watford side. Five goals scored and a whopping twenty-one conceded highlights just how dire things have become at Vicarage Road, though two steely draws in their last two matches might just indicate things could be changing for the Hornets. Nevertheless, they remain rooted to the bottom of the table for the time being and desperately need to start picking up wins if they want to stop a gap forming between themselves and safety.
Bournemouth have been the epitome of consistency again this season, currently sitting in tenth place after three wins, three draws and three losses. Their three losses came against Leicester, Manchester City and Arsenal, no need to worry there, with their three wins coming up against Aston Villa, Southampton and Everton. Thirteen goals scored is 1.19 better than their xG, with their xGA +2.24 higher than the thirteen they’ve conceded, which might indicate a slight overperformance from the Cherries so far.
Watford v Bournemouth - Odds & Spreads
Our football betting markets have priced a Watford win at 23/20, with three points going home with Bournemouth currently priced at 43/20.
Watford’s Win Index is currently priced at 13-14.5, with Bournemouth’s currently sat at 9.25-10.75. Our traders have total goals across the match currently priced at 2.95-3.15, with first half goals currently priced at 1.25-1.4. We have priced the first match goal at Vicarage Road to come with 31.5-34.5 minutes on the clock.
West Ham v Sheffield United - Can Pellegrini Stop it from Becoming Three Losses in Three?
Looking past a 0-5 opening day defeat to Manchester City, West Ham were riding high as one of the league’s most consistent sides, with an impressive win over Manchester United being the season highlight so far. What followed that however, were two disappointing defeats at home to Crystal Palace and away to an out of form Everton last time out. Conceding goals has become a real issue for Manuel Pellegrini, with his team conceding six in their last three matches.
Sheffield United’s good start to the season was suddenly launched into the realm of fairy tales when they triumphed under the lights against Arsenal on Monday night. Lys Mousset’s winner launched the Blades up to ninth in the table with twelve points. Chris Wilder has constructed one of the most well-drilled and defensively sound units in the division, in fact, their seven goals conceded is the joint best in the division, level with Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool side.
West Ham v Sheffield United - Odds & Spreads
In what is looking like an increasingly vital game for West Ham, we have them priced as slight favourites for a win at 1/1. Our traders have a draw between the two sides at 5/2, just edging out an away Blades win at 13/5.
Pellegrini’s men have been assigned a Win Index of 13.75-15.25, with Chris Wilder’s men alternatively priced at 8.25-9.75. In a game that sees a well drilled defence meeting one that leaks goals for fun, we have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.65-2.85, with both teams to score currently at 54-60. Pellegrini’s side have conceded two goals in their last three games, and we have Sheffield United’s first goal priced at 56-59 minutes, and their second at 79.5-82. Alternatively, favourites West Ham’s first goal is currently priced at 47-50 minutes, with their second currently at 73-76.
Burnley v Chelsea - How Long Can Super Frank Keep the Good Form Going?
Burnley have continued to showcase themselves as the ‘survival masters’ of the division with another solid start to what is now their fourth consecutive season in the league. Though their xG is a little bit better than what you might have expected at -1.10, everything else has been fairly consistent for the Clarets. In fact, their twelve goals scored so far is three better than what they had hit at this point last season, with their twelve points four better than at the same point, which could indicate a decent level of improvement from Dyche’s men.
Their opponents for this match have also been riding a feel-good feeling in recent weeks however. Since the Blues’ draw against Sheffield United in August, Frank Lampard and co. have overseen a run of four wins out of five, with their only loss coming to league leaders Liverpool. Nineteen goals scored is the third best in the division, only behind Manchester City and Liverpool, and an xG of +0.54 indicates that it could/should possibly be a little bit more. Though a slightly underwhelming scoreline, Chelsea do come into this game on the back of a composed win over Newcastle.
Burnley v Chelsea - Odds & Spreads
Our football odds currently have prices of an outside Burnley win at 16/5. A draw between the two sides is also priced at an outside 3/1, with another Chelsea win currently priced as a favourite at 3/ 4.
Sean Dyche is known for making his side hard to beat, now might be the best time to check out our Bad Beat Special promotion, which is in play for this fixture at Turf Moor. If you back one of these sides to win and they go on to lose, but win on xG across the match, we will refund your stake. If Burnley produce one of their infamous ‘backs to the walls’ wins, this could be an absolute lifesaver for you.
Burnley’s Win Index for this match is currently priced at 7-8.5, with Chelsea’s currently coming in at 15.25-16.75. Chelsea struggled to fully break down a defensive unit in Newcastle United last time out, and our traders have priced the opening Chelsea goal in this game at 42.5-45.5. Alternatively, Burnley’s first goal is currently priced at 55.5-58.5.
Newcastle v Wolves - Can Nuno Start Turning These Draws into Wins?
Ten games in and it’s pretty safe to assume Newcastle United are going to be experiencing another long season of fighting off relegation. And whilst Steve Bruce’s style of football might not be the most pleasing on the eye, it may be enough to keep Newcastle up come the end of the season.
Though they might start this game in the relegation zone, Bruce’s side are unbeaten at home after their opening day defeat to Arsenal, a run which includes that shock win over Manchester United. Their solid defensive work away to Chelsea last week should also give them a reason for some (measured) optimism.
Whilst the fears of relegation look to have been washed away for Wolves, they also have a real problem turning draws into wins. Five of their nine games played so far this season have resulted in a draw, with all but one of those coming from Wolves originally being behind in the match. Whilst it’s good to see that they’re tough to beat, Nuno Santo has to be looking at these next few fixtures and targeting some wins.
Newcastle v Wolves - Odds & Spreads
In what is this round of fixtures hardest to call match, Wolves just edge out as the favourites in our latest odds at 8/5. Newcastle’s good record at home gives them odds of 19/10, with a draw just coming up short at 2/1.
Being such a tough match to predict, it might be good to hear that this match is also featured in our Bad Beat Special. If you back one of these sides to win and they fall short with a loss, you’ll have a chance of having your stake refunded if they win on xG. This could be a great tool for what promises to be a tense, close matchup.
Our traders have Newcastle’s Win Index priced at 10.25-11.75, with Wolves alternatively available at 11.5-13. We have total games currently priced at 2.1-2.3, with the first goal time set at 40-43 minutes on the clock.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace - Emery Under Pressure?
Following what most people in the world of football saw as a smart, sensible and successful transfer window, predictions for Arsenal’s season were all fairly unanimous: easy top four finish, essentially. However, things at the Emirates are rarely that simple. Monday’s loss to Sheffield United saw the Gunners drop out of the top four and that all-too familiar feeling of a loss away from home return.
Arsenal’s problems seem to have been hovering around the club for a millennia now, with the side not winning away from home since the opening day of the season and the Gunners only registering two clean sheets, conceding twelve goals along the way. Whilst Wilfried Zaha continues to cut a pretty despondent figure at Selhurst Park, the side’s four wins so far this season see them occupying a healthy sixth place in the league table. Their xG shows +1.26 against the eight goals they have scored this season, however their defence has been superb with their xGA currently at +4.39 against the ten goals they have conceded.
Arsenal v Crystal Palace - Odds & Spreads
With the only blip being just the one clean sheet across the season so far, Arsenal’s home form has once again been fairly solid and they come into this game as strong favourites at 40/85. You can find a draw between the two teams at 7/2, with a Palace win the rank outsider at 11/2.
Arsenal’s Win Index for the game is currently priced at 17.75-19, with Crystal Palace’s coming in at 5-6.25. Arsenal have once again failed so far to address their defensive woes under Unai Emery and Total Goals for the game have been priced at 3.15-3.35. You can find pricing on Crystal Palace’s first goal at 58.5-61.5, whilst Arsenal’s first goal is priced between 38.5-41.5 minutes.
Liverpool v Spurs - Can Spurs Reignite Their Season with a Win at Anfield?
Once Jurgen Klopp stopped bemoaning Manchester United’s defensive tactics, he probably realised that an away draw at Old Trafford was not the worst result in the world. For starters, it maintained his side’s unbeaten start to the season which has seen them soar to the top of the table with a still healthy six-point lead over title-rivals Manchester City. Whilst his side were certainly off the pace for much of last week’s game, they are still developing the good practice of not playing well but still picking up crucial results.
Spurs and Pochettino hardly put the fans’ minds at ease with their nervy display against bottom-placed side Watford at the new White Hart Lane. Whilst VAR might have stolen most of the headlines on the day, Dele Alli’s late equaliser might have saved Spurs from what would have been rock bottom. Spurs and Pochettino now find themselves once again at a crossroads and their performance at Anfield will go a long way in showcasing which direction this team is truly headed.
Liverpool v Spurs - Odds & Spreads
Rather unsurprisingly given Spurs’ start to the season, Liverpool go into this game as heavy favourites at 1/ 2. Our traders believe a draw between the two sides is slightly more likely than a Spurs away win, priced at 7/2 and 19/4 respectively.
Liverpool’s Win Index is currently priced at 17.5-19, with Spurs’ outsider status pricing them at 5.25-6.5. Liverpool and Tottenham have scored thirty-six goals between them this season and our traders have priced total goals for this game at 3.15-3.35.
Norwich v Manchester United - Will Solskjaer Find his Winning Formula?
Whilst gaining a lot of fans through their expansive and attacking football, Norwich come into this game knowing that they really need to start chaining together some wins. Despite good periods of build-up in their midfield, Daniel Farke’s side now haven’t scored in four of their last six games following last week’s 0-0 draw away to Bournemouth. It gets worse at the other end of the pitch however, with their twenty-one goals conceded the joint worst in the division along with Watford. With an xG of only +0.69 and an xGA of -2.85, it indicates that the Canaries are exactly where they deserve to be at the moment.
Although Norwich were always likely to find life in the Premier League tough, it is worth pointing out Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and his side have so far won the exact same amount of games as their opponents. Their two wins against Chelsea and Leicester remain their only league triumphs this season, and the Red Devils are without a win in four attempts now. There were encouraging signs in their game against Liverpool however, and a convincing win against Norwich will go a long way in convincing the fans that the side has indeed turned a corner.
Norwich v Manchester United - Odds & Spreads
Despite their continued woes, Manchester United are still heavy favourites going into their relegation six-pointer against Norwich at 3/ 4. A draw is priced slightly higher at 3/1 than a home Norwich win at 10/3.
As outsiders, Norwich’s Win Index currently stands at 7-8.5, with their Manchester opponents currently priced at 15.25-16.75. Norwich and Manchester United have conceded exactly thirty goals between them this season and our traders have priced Total Goals for this game at 2.85-3.05. We currently have first match goal time priced at 32-35, with the first Manchester United goal set at 43-46.
Which sides do you think will triumph in what promises to be another action-packed weekend of football? Check out all of our Premier League spread betting and football markets for all the latest odds and offers.