Premier League Preview | Matchday 11 | Odds & Spreads
Premier League Matchday 11: Weekend Betting Preview
Matchday 10 took the unpredictability of the Premier League to new heights. Goals, highlights and controversy were rife as Liverpool and Manchester City continued their pursuit of the title, Leicester ran riot and Watford went another week passing on the opportunity of getting a win. With more and more pressure gripping the traditional big boys of the division, we look forward to who they face this week, their latest odds going into the game, and what exactly you should be looking out for in every clash this weekend.
Bournemouth vs. Manchester United - Are United Back On Track?
Don’t hold your breath United fans, but it looks as though the Red Devils might be on the verge of turning the corner on what has been another disappointing start to a season. Following a much improved performance against Liverpool, United were treated to the league’s most sought-after fixture at the moment of Norwich away and duly delivered. Thanks primarily to the return of Anthony Martial, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side have begun to look far more confident in front of goal, with the game against Norwich marking the first time since the opening day of the season that United have hit more than a single goal in a game in any competition.
You have to go back to March 2019 for the last time United won back to back league games however, and Bournemouth are sure to provide a sterner test for Solskjaer’s side. Though they might have lost five out of the last six meetings against Manchester United, only Manchester City have been able to come to the Vitality Stadium and pick up three points against Eddie Howe’s Cherries so far this season.
Bournemouth vs. Manchester United - Odds & Spreads
Last week’s good string of results have helped price Manchester United as favourites for this game at 6/5. Don’t completely count against Bournemouth however, who aren’t too far behind in our pricing at 43/20. Three of Bournemouth’s five home games this season have ended in a draw, which has been priced at 5/2 by our traders.
Manchester United’s Win Index for this game is currently priced at 12.75-14.25, whilst Bournemouth’s is at 9.25-10.75. United’s troubles in front of goal this season have been painfully obvious, whilst Bournemouth haven’t scored for three consecutive matches now. We have total goals for this game currently placed at 2.7-2.9, with a first goal time priced at 34-37 minutes. Manchester United are one of the league’s most inconsistent sides at the moment, but are fortunately a part of this week’s Bad Beat special promotion. Our Bad Beat special offers you the chance to refund your stake if your side loses, but wins on xG (expected goals) over the course of the game. With two sides who have looked increasingly wasteful in front of goal, this promotion could be an absolute lifesaver.
Arsenal vs. Wolves - Will The Arsenal Implosion Continue?
Most of us predicted a nice, easy season for the Gunners. With Manchester United, Tottenham and Chelsea all looking on the brink of disaster during the summer, it looked as though Unai Emery’s side would simply walk into the Champions League places this year. However, you should never underestimate the power of Arsenal’s ability to implode on themselves at any given moment. Five dropped points in a single week against Sheffield United and Crystal Palace, and the total breakdown between club captain and fans, have left Arsenal teetering on the verge of a crisis.
Wolves continued their quest for the most draws in a single season last week, coming from behind yet again to claim a point at Newcastle last week. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have racked up six draws from their ten games so far this season, a league high, and have now come from behind in all but one of those matches. Whilst it might not be great for the stress levels of the Wolves faithful, it has left them looking pretty safe in twelfth place.
Arsenal vs. Wolves - Odds & Spreads
Wolves’ impressive record against the top six, as well as Arsenal’s recent poor run of form, could make this matchup a tough one to call. Our traders have made Arsenal the game’s favourites at 3/ 4, with a draw between the two priced at 11/4 and a Wolves win the outsider at 7/2.
Arsenal’s Win Index is currently priced at 15.5-17, with Wolves’ currently at 6.75-8.25. Arsenal have shipped three goals in two games going into this match and we have total goals for the game currently priced at 2.75-2.95, with a first goal time currently priced at 34-37 minutes.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool - Is Jurgen Klopp Ever Going To Lose A Match?
It’s been a long time since Jurgen Klopp lost a Premier League match. January 3rd at the Etihad Stadium was the first and only loss of last season’s campaign, and you have to go back to April 2017 to find the last time Jurgen Klopp lost a league match at home. Whilst even the most ardent of Liverpool fans would struggle to say that their side have been at their sparkling best this season, the results don’t lie and the Reds come into this weekend still unbeaten and six points clear at the top.
Dean Smith’s Aston Villa side have won plenty of plaudits for how they’ve adjusted to life in top flight, with consecutive wins over Norwich and Brighton lifting them into eleventh place going into their game against Manchester City last week. However, their 3-0 loss against Manchester City last time out saw them drop to fifteenth and, with games against Liverpool, Wolves, Manchester United and Chelsea all to come, it looks like they might be entering ‘crunch time’ in their season.
Aston Villa vs. Liverpool - Odds & Spreads
Perhaps unsurprisingly, our latest football odds have Klopp’s Liverpool as strong favourites at 4/11. You can find odds priced at 17/4, with an Aston Villa home win the rank outsider priced at 13/2. Aston Villa’s Win Index is currently priced at 3.75-5, with Liverpool’s currently at 19-20.25. These two sides have only kept four clean sheets (two each) between them all season, and we have both teams to score currently at 52-58. Total goals for the game is currently priced at 3.15-3.35.
Brighton vs. Norwich - Can Daniel Farke Stop The Rot?
After a start to a season that had been riddled with late goals and bad luck, Graham Potter’s Brighton side finally found a way to win, and win ugly. Their performance against Everton was a far cry away from the attractive style donned by the Seagulls so far this season, however it got them a result that they were in desperate need of. Having struggled at the head of the season in the final third, their seven goals in the last three games has seen their xG drop to just +1.71 and indicating a far more confident, prolific attacking form.
Ever since their legendary win against Manchester City in September, Daniel Farke has overseen no wins and four damning losses in the past five games. Whilst regarded as one of the more attacking sides outside the top six, Norwich’s xG is currently sitting at a worrying +0.58 and the team’s two goals in the last five games have both been consolation finishes in the final five minutes of the game.
Brighton vs. Norwich - Odds & Spreads
Some wins feel more significant than others in football, and a win for either of these sides would be their most significant of the season. A win for Brighton, currently priced at 3/ 4, would see them go eight points clear of Norwich, whilst a win for the Canaries, currently priced as the outsider at 7/2, would close the gap between the two sides to just two points. A stalemate at the AMEX Stadium is currently priced at 11/4.
Brighton’s Win Index is currently priced at 15.5-17, with an outside Norwich win at 6.75-8.25. Both sides have tried to implement attacking styles of play so far this season and we have total goals for the game currently priced at 2.85-3.05, with the first goal of the match currently at 32-35 minutes.
Manchester City vs. Southampton - Will City Run Riot Again?
What’s the best fixture to have after being thrashed 9-0 at home? Manchester City away, of course. To the dismay of every Southampton fan in the land, Pep Guardiola’s side have continued to be imperious in front of goal this season having already racked up 32 goals in their ten games so far. Whilst they cut a frustrated side at times against Aston Villa last week, their 3-0 win was yet another example of Pep’s team’s ability to simply swat away any challenger at the Etihad.
Southampton’s drubbing at home to Leicester was not the first disappointing result of their season, but it certainly was the most embarrassing and has left them currently stranded in the relegation zone. Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side have now conceded three or more in three games this season, and their 25 goals conceded is easily the worst in the league. Their xGA (expected goals against) of -7.88 shows how leaky their defence has been recently, with the next closest xGA coming from Everton’s -3.90.
Manchester City vs. Southampton - Odds & Spreads
Look away now Southampton fans. Manchester City are currently priced as 1/12 favourites. If you were interested, a draw can be found at 10/1, with a shock Southampton away win currently priced at 28/1.
Manchester City’s Win Index is currently priced at 23-23.75, with Southampton’s currently at 1-1.75. Hassenhuttl will surely just be hoping to keep the score at the Etihad as low as possible, and our traders have total goals for the game priced at 4-4.2.
Sheffield United vs. Burnley - Can United Continue Their Dream Start?
The fact that Sheffield United could potentially finish the weekend in a European spot is both shocking and amazing to see. Only one loss (a narrow 1-0 to Liverpool) in their last five games has seen Chris Wilder’s side climb to eighth in the table with three wins, four draws and three losses for the season. They have only conceded two in a game twice this season, against Chelsea and Leicester, although their lofty xGA of +6.13 indicates Sheffield United should have perhaps conceded more goals so far.
Burnley have continued to be the resolute, solid kind of side you expect to see from Sean Dyche this season. Their three wins and three draws have kept them above the relegation zone all season, and their four losses have come against Liverpool, Arsenal, Leicester and Chelsea which is hardly a reason to panic.
Sheffield United vs. Burnley - Odds & Spreads
In what looks to be a tough game to call, our traders have priced Wilder’s side as slight favourites at 23/20. A draw between the two teams comes in at 9/4, with an away win for Sean Dyche and co. currently priced at 5/2.
Sheffield United’s Win Index is currently priced at 13.25-14.75, with Burnley’s sitting at 8.75-10.25. These two sides have scored 22 goals between them this season and our traders have priced the total goals for this game at 2.15-2.35, with the first match goal coming in 38.5-41.5 minutes on the clock.
West Ham vs. Newcastle - Pellegrini Needs A Win
Before their game against Crystal Palace, West Ham were unbeaten in six and sitting pretty in fifth. Since then, they have lost two, drawn one and dropped down to tenth in the table. Last week’s home draw against Sheffield United took Manuel Pellegrini’s winless run in the league to four games in total, meaning that their fixture against Newcastle this weekend is looking increasingly crucial.
Whilst it’s hard to see Newcastle going on a run that will take them away from the relegation zone, they’ve been able to keep their head above the water pretty well so far this season. Unbeaten since the opening day of the season at home, Steve Bruce’s side currently boast an xG of -0.25 below what they’ve scored, an xGA of +1.77 better than they’ve conceded and their 9 points so far this season is -2.80 better than what they’re expected to be at.
West Ham vs. Newcastle - Odds & Spreads
Despite their good home record this season, Newcastle have lost four of their five away matches this season and come into this game as underdogs at 3/1. A West Ham win is currently priced at 17/20, with the draw the next favourite in our fixed-odds betting at 11/4.
Our traders have Pellegrini to turn West Ham’s form around and win with a Win Index of 14.75-16.25, with Newcastle’s alternatively priced at 7.5-9. Total goals for the game is currently priced at 2.65-2.85, with the First Match Goal for the game currently priced at 34-37 minutes.
Watford vs. Chelsea - The Watford Wait For A Win Continues
Whilst Watford’s wait for their first win of the season looks set to continue, there is at least some improvement to begin pointing to for Quique Sanchez Flores and co. Having lost five of their first seven games, Watford come into this game on the back of three hard-fought draws against Bournemouth, Tottenham and Sheffield United. Ever since their 8-0 drubbing against Manchester City, Watford’s defence has seriously improved, conceding just once in their last three games and dropping their xGA to a much healthier -3.87, in comparison to where it was previously at least.
The good times keep coming for Frank Lampard however. Five league wins in their last six games, including four in a row coming into this game, has already helped open up a four point gap between them and fifth placed Arsenal. Their 23 goals scored this season is level with Liverpool and joint third in the league, with their total points of 20 slightly higher than their xPts (expected points) of 18.52.
Watford vs. Chelsea - Odds & Spreads
Our traders have backed Chelsea to keep Watford rooted at the bottom of the table with odds of 4/6 for this game. A draw between the two teams is currently priced at 16/5, with the Hornets’ chances of winning currently priced at 7/2.
Chelsea’s Win Index for the late Saturday kick off is currently priced at 16-17.5, with Watford’s currently at 6.5-8. Chelsea have hit two or more goals in six of their ten league games so far this season, though Watford’s defence is certainly on the road to improvement. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 3-3.2, with Chelsea to score two and win currently priced at 12-15. First Match Goal is currently priced at 30.5-33.5 minutes.
Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City - Selhurst Will Prove Tougher Than St. Mary’s
Leicester’s great start to the season was launched to a different level when they travelled to St. Mary’s on Friday night. Their 9-0 mauling set records for the league’s greatest ever away win and was just further proof that Brendan Rodgers’ side mean serious business this year. Their nine goals against Southampton took them above Chelsea and Liverpool and only behind Manchester City for the most goals scored in the league, with their 25 scored currently a whopping -11.69 better than what has been expected. In addition, conceding only eight goals so far also makes them the joint best defensive unit in the league.
Crystal Palace have also had a strong start to their season, coming into this game in sixth place after four wins, three draws and three losses. Whilst their ten goals scored is the joint second worst amongst the teams outside of the relegation zone, their twelve conceded remains better than the likes of Tottenham, Chelsea and Arsenal, showcasing where the foundation of their points tally has come from.
Crystal Palace vs. Leicester City - Odds & Spreads
Leicester’s push for Europe looks set to continue against Crystal Palace, with our traders currently pricing the Foxes at 11/10 for a win. Palace are priced at 5/2 odds to win, with the draw coming in at 12/5.
Palace’s Win Index for their match against Leicester has been priced at 8.75-10.25, with the Foxes coming in at 13.5-15. Following on from their nine goals against Southampton, we have priced Total Goals priced at 2.45-2.65, with a First Match Goal priced at 35.5-38.5. For those interested in a repeat of the St. Mary’s mauling, our traders have priced Leicester to score 4+ and win at 2.5-4.
Everton vs. Tottenham - Back To Square One For Poch And Silva?
After a convincing and badly needed win against West Ham, Everton fell right back into their old ways with a loss away to Brighton. Despite leading with roughly ten minutes to go, Marco Silva’s side ended up slumping to their fifth defeat in six games, leaving them two places and two points above the relegation zone. It is increasingly looking grim for Silva, whose problems seem to stem from both ends of the pitch with Everton’s xG currently at +4.52, the third highest discrepancy in the league, and their xGA at -3.90.
Tottenham’s woes also continue to haunt them this season, coming into this game on the back of one win in five and no wins in the past three games. Currently eleventh in the table, their fifteen goals conceded this season is the joint-second worst in the division for sides outside of the relegation zone. Frustration from Pochettino and certain players in his squad seems to be casting a pretty long shadow over Spurs at the moment and the team badly need to find some wins from somewhere.
Everton vs. Tottenham - Odds & Spreads
This match looks set to be one of the most crucial of the weekend with both teams desperate for a win. Tottenham just edge out in front as favourites at 29/20, with Everton coming up just behind at 7/4 and the draw the outsider at 5/2.
With both sides producing some absolute horror shows in recent times, it might be a relief to hear that this fixture is included in our Bad Beat promotion. If you back one of these teams to win and they finish the match on the losing end, but crucially win on expected goals, we will refund your stake.
Total Goals for this match has been priced at 2.75-2.95 by our traders, with Everton’s Win Index currently priced at 10.5-12 and Tottenham’s Win Index currently at 11.5-13. Both teams have conceded 31 goals between so far this season and our traders have priced the First Match Goal to come 33-36 minutes in, with Everton’s first goal priced at 51-54 minutes and Tottenham’s first to come 49-52 minutes in.
Who do you think will be the big winners/losers from this week’s crucial set of fixtures? Make sure you check out our leading Premier League spreads and top football markets for all of the latest odds and offers at Sporting Index.