Premier League Preview | Matchday 12 | Odds & Spreads
Premier League Matchday 12: Weekend Betting Preview
We have one last round-up of football to enjoy before yet another dreaded spell of international football, and there are some seriously mouth-watering fixtures to take a look at this weekend. Whilst they both had to dig deep and leave it late, both Liverpool and Manchester City showcased exactly why they’re the two most successful sides in the division as they both came from behind to win last time out. In what is undoubtedly the biggest game of the season and can already be described as ‘potential title-decider’, the two Premier League giants meet at Anfield this Sunday.
At the other end of the table, bottom placed Watford face free-falling Norwich in the first big ‘six-pointer’ of the season at Carrow Road. Read on for the latest football odds ahead of every fixture ahead of Matchday 12 in this year’s Premier League.
Norwich vs Watford - Crucial Win Up for Grabs in his Relegation Six-Pointer
Whilst a ‘relegation six-pointer’ might be the most cliché phrase in all of football, there’s no denying that a win for either of these sides will be more significant than most that come their way. Norwich’s limp display at Brighton marked the sixth game without a win for the Canaries, with five of those games being losses. They might have shocked Manchester City and the football world with their attacking-minded approach, but Daniel Farke’s side are increasingly looking like a side content with enjoying the ride of a Premier League season, rather than clawing onto safety.
As bad as Norwich have been in recent times, Watford still remain the only team in the entire country to be without a win so far this season. A run of three draws was ended at home to Chelsea last week, but Quique Sanchez Flores’ side continue to look much sturdier in defence having conceded just three times in the last four games.
Norwich vs Watford - Odds & Spreads
There’s everything to play for in a game such as this, and our traders have found it hard to price these two sides apart by much. Watford just about edge out in front at favourites at 6/4, with Norwich then priced at 13/8 and a draw currently at 13/5.
With both teams currently down with an allergic reaction to winning at the moment, we have Norwich’s Win Index at 10.75-12.25 and Watford’s priced at 11.5-13. The cult-figure of Teemu Pukki is without a goal in six league outings now and we have Total Goals for this game currently priced at 2.9-3.1.
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - Can Super Frank Keep Pace at The Top?
Frank Lampard is doing a seriously impressive job at Chelsea, for the time being at least. He is masterfully showing off how building a side around young players is supposed to be done, and his side’s away win at Watford took his tally of wins on the road to five in a row and seven in total. Whilst their xGA (Expected Goals Against) continues to look a little unhealthy at -3.24 against what they have conceded, their xPTS (Expected Points) for the season is -2.59 from what they have racked up so far.
Crystal Palace’s much-hyped strong start to the season has run into a bit of a blip in recent times. Two losses and one draw in their past three games has seen them drop down to ninth in the table and below rivals Brighton and Hove Albion, though those three games were against Manchester City, Arsenal and Leicester.
Chelsea vs Crystal Palace - Odds & Spreads
It’s a sticky run of fixtures at the moment for Crystal Palace and we have them as outsiders for this match too, currently priced at 7/1. A stalemate between the two teams at Stamford Bridge is currently priced at 4/1, with Chelsea priced at 4/11.
Chelsea’s Win Index is currently priced at 19-20.25, with Crystal Palace’s noticeably lower at 3.75-5. Crystal Palace’s defence has been adequate all season, but it will be put to the test against a seriously potent Chelsea frontline in the early Saturday kick-off. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 3.05-3.25, with the first Match Goal priced at 30.5-33 minutes on the clock.
Burnley vs West Ham - Is Pellegrini Feeling the Heat?
Known as one of the sturdiest teams in the division, it was slightly strange seeing Burnley torn apart and concede three goals last time out; that being said, it was against Champions League-hunting Sheffield United so maybe we shouldn’t have been so surprised. Sean Dyche’s side have now lost three games in a row, conceding nine goals in the process and have dropped to fourteenth in the table.
West Ham are also a side feeling the heat of a bad run of form however. Despite talks in the summer about pushing a top six finish, Manuel Pellegrini’s side are in the midst of a five-game winless run with three of those games being losses. What’s more, West Ham are without a win all season on the road since August, a 1-3 result against Watford, and rumblings about manager Manuel Pellegrini are already rearing their heads.
Burnley vs West Ham - Odds & Spreads
With both sides desperate to turn their fortunes around and find that elusive win has a stalemate between the two sides the outsider at 5/2 in our latest football odds. West Ham’s lack of wins on the road see them come in at 2/1, with Burnley edging out the two and positioned as favourites at 5/4.
Burnley’s Win Index is currently priced at 12.5-14, with West Ham’s at 9.5-11. These two sides have conceded fifteen goals between them in their past three games, and our traders have priced Total Goals for the game at 2.75-2.95 with a First Match Goal priced at 33-36.
Newcastle vs. Bournemouth - Steve Bruce and Eddie Howe Looking to Kick On
Both sides are looking considerably healthier following their wins last week, however, Newcastle’s win at the London Stadium on Saturday would have certainly shocked even the most optimistic of Toon fans. Not only did they record what was just their second away win of the season, but Saturday also marked the first-time all-season Steve Bruce’s side had hit more than one goal in a game. Despite the post-season crisis of Rafa Benitez’s departure, Newcastle are looking good on XG at -1.32, XGA at +1.31 and XPTS at -4.13.
Bournemouth rose to seventh last week following their home win against Manchester United. Only Manchester City have been able to beat the Cherries at home this season, and Eddie Howe’s side have only lost once in their last seven games, which was a narrow 1-0 loss away to Arsenal. Whilst the free-flowing football synonymous with Bournemouth has dried up slightly this season, their defence has been hugely impressive and their xGA is at a mightily healthy +3.56.
Newcastle vs. Bournemouth - Odds & Spreads
Newcastle remain unbeaten at home since the opening day of the season, making this one of the tightest games to call according to our football markets. Our traders have edged Newcastle out as slight favourites at 8/5, with an away Bournemouth win priced just slightly outside at 7/4, and a draw currently the outsider at 9/4.
Steve Bruce’s side currently have a Win Index priced at 11.25-12.75, with the Cherries at 10.75-12.25. Both sides have built their recent good form on the back of a strong defence, and we have priced Total Goals for the game at 2.45-2.65.
Southampton vs. Everton - Home Sweet Home for Hassenhuttl?
Saturday’s match against Marco Silva’s Everton will be Southampton’s first home match since the mind-blowingly terrible 0-9 loss to Leicester in matchday 10. Things looked set to go from bad to unimaginably terrible for Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side against the might of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City, however, to the shock of the entire footballing world, the Saints actually put in an impressive defensive display and were only beaten back in the cruellest of circumstances.
For Silva, last Sunday’s last-gasp leveller against Spurs was not enough to haul his side away from the danger of the relegation zone. The Toffees travel to the south coast this weekend, just three points and one place above Southampton in the bottom three, and with just one win the past seven games.
Southampton vs. Everton - Odds & Spreads
Everton’s struggle for consistency this season has turned this potentially favourable fixture into a nervy, tough-to-call matchup. Silva’s side just about creep out as favourites at 7/5, with Southampton priced at 15/8 and a draw between the two at 12/5.
Southampton’s improved performances against Manchester City see their Win Index priced at 10.25-11.75, with Everton’s currently at 11.75-13.25. These two sides have only mustered 22 goals between them all season and have a combined xG of +9.66 more than what they’ve netted so far. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.55-2.75, with a first Match Goal set at 35-38 minutes.
Spurs vs. Sheffield United - The Hunt for Europe Goes on For Sheffield
Top six candidates and future European heavy-hitters Sheffield United take their fantastic form to North London this weekend, on the hunt for a fifth successive week without a loss. Chris Wilder’s Blades still occupy the joint-best defence in the division, with their 8 goals conceded only matched by Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester side. Their xGA is currently at +6.85, easily the best in the division, and their first three-goal haul in a game last week might be an indication of things starting to really kick into life at both ends of the pitch.
Tottenham’s difficulties this season continued against Everton last week, taking Pochettino’s side to four consecutive games without a win since their 3-0 drubbing at Brighton. What may surprise some Spurs fans however, is the fact that their side are currently running at a -4.60 xG, the second best in the division currently.
Spurs vs. Sheffield United - Odds & Spreads
Tottenham are unbeaten at home since their shock 0-1 loss to Newcastle in August and are our traders’ favourites at 3/ 5. A stalemate between the two sides is currently priced at 3/1, meaning that, despite their current European credentials, Chris Wilder’s United are the outsiders at 9/2.
Spurs’ Win Index is currently priced at 16.75-18.25, with the Blades’ at 5.75-7. First Match Goal time has been set at 33-36 minutes, with the pricing on Tottenham’s First Goal at 42.5-45.5 minutes, and Sheffield United’s currently at 60.5-63.5 minutes.
Leicester vs. Arsenal - Can Rodgers’ Side Go Nine Points Clear?
The Rodgers revolution at the King Power Stadium continues to roll on and impress the football world, with yet another measured and professional display at Selhurst Park last weekend. The Foxes possess the joint best defensive record in the league and their 27 goals scored is only bettered by Manchester City in the division. Their xG of -12.71 is staggeringly clinical and showcases the confidence the likes of Jamie Vardy are currently playing with.
The annual implosion at the Emirates looks set to enter another week as Unai Emery continues his one-man mission to baffle every single football fan in the country. The Gunners are currently winless in their past three games, have slipped to six points behind Chelsea and Leicester and have not won on the road since the opening day of the season. Perfect time for Emery and Ozil to have an absolute masterstroke.
Leicester vs. Arsenal - Odds & Spreads
It’s a testament to how good Leicester have been this season that they come into this match as reasonably heavy favourites at 21/20. A rare Arsenal win comes up next at 12/5, with a stalemate between the two at 13/5.
With inconsistencies and errors rife at the Emirates right now, it might be comforting to hear that this match features in this week’s Bad Beat promotion. If you back one of these teams to win and they go onto lose, but crucially win on xG (expected goals), then we will completely refund your stake! With the possibility of another toothless display on the road on the cards, this could be an absolute lifesaver for you Gunners fans.
We have priced Leicester’s Win Index at 13.5-15, with Unai Emery’s side currently priced at 8.75-10.25. Arsenal are currently operating with a goal difference of just +1, conceding 15 goals and keeping just two clean sheets so far, and we Total Goals for the game priced at 3-3.2.
Man United vs. Brighton - Can Potter’s Men Pile More Pain on Solskjaer?
After what looked like a chain of promising results, it was right back to the drawing board for Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Micky Phelan and co. following a dismal showing at Bournemouth last time out. Defeat at the Vitality was the eighth time in eleven matches that United dropped points this season, widening the gap between the Red Devils and fourth place to a daunting ten points. Man United’s xG of +5.08 is staggeringly the second worst in the division now, only slightly ahead of Watford’s +7.93.
For Graham Potter and Brighton, the opposite couldn’t be truer. The Seagulls have won three consecutive home wins now following a professional display against Norwich, taking them to eighth place in the table and two points ahead of United. Potter’s side have scored 9 goals in their past four games and should arrive at Old Trafford with plenty of confidence in the face of what is increasingly looking like one of the limpest United teams we have ever seen.
Man United vs. Brighton - Odds & Spreads
Despite going back to square one following on from their loss against Bournemouth, United still occupy a position of heavy favourites coming into this matchup at 4/7. Graham Potter’s Seagulls can be found as the outsiders at 11/2, with a draw currently priced at 11/4.
United’s Win Index is currently priced at 17.25-18.5, with Brighton’s currently sat at 5.25-6.5. Total Goals for the game have been priced at 2.4-2.6, with a First Match Goal timed at 37-40 minutes.
Wolves vs. Aston Villa - Will Wolves Ever Stop Drawing?
Nuno Espirito Santo continued his quest to secure Premier League survival with the record amount of draws possible last time out against Arsenal. In the weekly Wolves comeback story, it was once again Raul Jimenez who pulled the Midlands outfit back into the game with his eleventh goal of the season. Wolves have now drawn seven of their eleven games played this season, with all but one of them being games that they had initially been behind in.
Aston Villa have gone from riding high in the top half of the table, to languishing in sixteenth position and just three points above the drop zone in just two matchdays, though those two matchdays were against Liverpool and Manchester City so perhaps that’s understandable. With an xG of just -0.15 against what they have scored and an xGA of +2.36 what they’ve conceded, they’ve been one of the most consistent sides in the bottom half of the table so certainly no need to begin panicking yet.
Wolves vs. Aston Villa - Odds & Spreads
Wolves come into this game priced as favourites at 17/20, with Dean Smith’s Aston Villa side the outsiders at 16/5. Odds on Wolves securing their eighth draw of the season are currently priced at 5/2.
Nuno’s side currently have a Win Index priced at 14.75-16.25, with Aston Villa’s alternatively priced at 7.5-9. Total Goals for the match is currently priced at 2.6-2.8, with a First Goal Time set at 35.5-38.5.
Liverpool vs. Manchester City - Klopp And Guardiola Clash in The Biggest Game of the Season
Liverpool have looked far from vintage at times this season, however they’re the side that can point to an unbeaten record this season, a six-point gap at the top of the table currently and a very real chance of turning that into nine by the end of this week. 25 Goals scored and 9 conceded, despite only keeping two clean sheets all season, it has seen the Reds register an xG of -1.97 and an xGA of +1.26, highlighting their consistency across the season.
Pep has already commenced the mind games in preparation of the biggest game of the season and his City side come to Anfield on the back of three consecutive wins. 34 Goals scored is nine better than Liverpool, and the Sky Blues have only conceded one goal more than their Merseyside rivals, helping to set up a truly mouth-watering tie.
Liverpool vs. Manchester City - Odds & Spreads
There is truly next to nothing that separates the quality of these two sides, which could make this week’s Bad Beat promotion more than a little bit handy. Back either one of these sides to win, and if they lose, but win on xG, we will refund your stake!
This top of the table clash looks set to be almost impossible to call, however our traders have just about edged out Manchester City as favourites with odds priced at 29/20. Liverpool follow up at 17/10, with a draw the rank outsider at 13/5.
Manchester City’s Win Index has been priced at 11.5-13, with Liverpool’s just coming up shorter at 10.75-12.25. Total Goals for the game have been priced at 2.85-3.05, with a First Match Goal coming at 32-25. You can find Liverpool’s First Match Goal at 49.5-52.5 minutes, with Manchester City’s currently priced at 48.5-51.5 minutes.