Premier League Preview | Matchday 13 | Odds & Spreads
Premier League Matchday 13: Weekend Betting Preview
With yet another two week break from Premier League action now finally behind us, we can begin to look forward to everyone’s favourite time of year: festive Premier League football. Rumblings of managerial sackings, transfer speculation running rife and, of course, lots of football played promises to make 2019-20 one of the most entertaining seasons in memory. We’ll be on hand to deliver all of the latest football odds, previews and markets so that you never miss out on the festive action.
For Pep Guardiola, it looks increasingly likely that the only thing he’ll be getting for Christmas is a Premier League runners up medal and a sarcastic card from the FA. His Manchester City side fell to a nine-gap deficit behind league leaders Liverpool before the international break, and now face the daunting prospect of keeping up with Leicester and avoiding the soon-to-be European powerhouse of Sheffield United. Pep and City face off against third place side Chelsea in what has to be a must-win game at the Etihad.
West Ham vs. Tottenham - Can Either Side Some Find Form?
With the battle to be the worst team in London taking a seriously shocking turn with the sacking of Mauricio Pochettino and subsequent appointment of Jose Mourinho at Tottenham, both West Ham and Spurs have been amongst the worst form teams in the league.
Ever since beating Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s Manchester United in September, Manuel Pellegrini’s Hammers side have gone six games without a win, losing four out of the last five for good measure. With those results coming against Bournemouth, Crystal Palace, Everton, Sheffield United, Newcastle and Burnley and conceding 13 goals in that process, pressure could seriously be beginning to mount for Pellegrini.
However, if there’s one team that West Ham can get themselves up for, it’s Tottenham. Their north London opponents currently sit in 14th position in the table and are without a win in five since their narrow win against Southampton in September. Their xG (expected goals) of -4.09 shows just how reliant they’ve been on the brilliant finishing of Harry Kane, Son Heung-min and co., but is a legitimate concern if those players stop performing.
West Ham vs. Tottenham - Odds & Spreads
Jose Mourinho’s new side badly need a win here in order to start climbing up the table and we have them priced as favourites at 10/11. A West Ham win and a stalemate between the two sides are priced the same at 11/4.
With both these sides routinely disappointing their fans so far this season, now might be a good time to say that this game falls under our special Bad Beat promotion. If you back one of these teams to win and they lose, but win on xG, we will completely refund your stake! (T&Cs apply)
In the football spread betting Tottenham’s Win Index has been priced at 14.5-16, with West Ham’s currently at 7.75-9.25. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 3.15-3.35, with a First Match Goal currently at 31.5-34.5 minutes on the clock.
Bournemouth vs. Wolves - Wolves Back In The Hunt For Europe?
Wolves broke rank with their hunt for the most draws ever registered in a single season last week by beating Aston Villa at Molineux. 3 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses has seen Wolves rise up to 8th place in the table, level on points with Manchester United and only one behind Unai Emery’s imploding Arsenal side. Their xG of +0.48 indicates they’ve been pretty consistent in front of goal and their xGA (expected goals against) of -0.38 makes them one of the league’s most steady sides currently.
With 4 wins, 4 draws, 4 losses, 15 goals scored and 15 goals conceded, Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth side have taken the very definition of ‘on target’ to new literal meaning. Their 1-2 loss at Newcastle was disappointing, but still sees the Cherries in 9th place and level on points with their opponents coming into this game, having only lost once in seven before their trip to Newcastle.
Bournemouth vs. Wolves - Odds & Spreads
With these two sides matching themselves in almost every department so far this season, our traders have had a hard time separating them in the latest Premier League markets. Both sides are priced at 13/8, with a draw just the outsider at 23/10.
With these sides locked so closely together in the odds, it might be comforting to hear these sides qualify for this week’s Bad Beat promotion. If you back one of these sides to win and they proceed to dominate the xG of the game but end up on the wrong end of the result, we’ll completely refund your stake! (T&Cs apply)
Only Manchester City have gone to Bournemouth and picked up three points, and Eddie Howe’s side currently have a Win Index priced at 11.25-12.75, with Wolves’ alternatively coming in at 11-12.5. We have Total Goals for the game currently priced at 2.5-2.7, with a First Match Goal timed at 35.5-38.5 minutes on the clock.
Arsenal vs. Southampton - Will The Emery Implosion Continue?
The annual Arsenal meltdown broke new heights last time out at Leicester, as Unai Emery’s side made it four consecutive games without a win. The Gunners have only won two of their last ten matches (both of those by a single goal), are currently behind Sheffield United in fifth and are now eight points off the top four. With the embarrassing sagas surrounding the likes of Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Granit Xhaka still rolling on, the pressure for Unai Emery is reaching breaking point.
If Arsenal are teetering on the verge of implosion, Southampton are in the midst of a full blown crisis. Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side have recovered admirably from their 9-0 trouncing at the hands of Leicester, but still enter this match with six losses from seven games. Their xGA of -6.43 shows that defence has been the biggest point of concern for the Saints, meaning a frontline of Aubameyang, Lacazette and Ozil could be a concoction for disaster this weekend.
Arsenal vs. Southampton - Odds & Spreads
Despite their best efforts to throw away Champions League football for a fourth year in a row, Arsenal play host to one of the few sides in the division with a worse run of form than them and are the heavy favourites at 1/ 2. Arsenal have the joint second most draws in the division and odds on a stalemate at the Emirates are priced at 7/2. You can get outside odds on a Saints win at 5/1.
Unai Emery has been backed by the Arsenal board for the time being and his side’s Win Index is currently priced at 17.5-19, with Southampton’s at 5-6.25. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 3.15-3.35, with a First Arsenal Goal coming at 38-41 minutes on the clock and a First Southampton Goal currently priced at 58-61 minutes.
Brighton vs. Leicester - Leicester’s Hunt For Europe Set To Continue?
Graham Potter’s revolution at Brighton continues to impress most in the football world, and has shown why the decision to dismiss popular manager Chris Hughton last season is looking increasingly like a smart one. The more free-flowing and attacking style of play has helped the Seagulls score three goals on three different outings this season. To put that into context, that is the same number of times they achieved that feat in the two full seasons under Hughton.
It’s funny to think some in the football world questioned Brendan Rodgers’ switch from Celtic to Leicester in February 2019. His Leicester side are now second in the table with the second highest number of goals scored, and the very best defence in the division. Their xG of -13.34 against what they have scored highlights just how brutal the likes of Jamie Vardy have been in front of goal, though he has been helped out massively by the creativity of James Maddison, Youri Tielemans and Harvey Barnes.
Brighton vs. Leicester - Odds & Spreads
Given their position in the table, it’s unsurprising to see Rodgers’ side as the favourites here at 1/1. A draw between the two sides at the AMEX just edges out as the next favourite at 5/2, with a win for Potter’s men currently priced at 13/5.
In the Premier League spread betting, our traders have priced Leicester’s Win Index at 14-15.5, with Brighton’s currently at 8.25-9.75. With both teams opting for more attacking styles of play this season that has helped yield 44 goals between them, we have priced Total Goals for the game at 2.65-2.85, with a First Goal timed at 34.5-37.5 minutes on the clock.
Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool - Klopp’s Unbeaten Run Set To Continue?
Crystal Palace must be getting absolutely sick of playing the top teams in the division. Including this fixture, their past five games have been against sides occupying the top five places in the league and has brought the Eagles just one point so far. Roy Hodgson’s side may have fallen to 12th in the table, however they can still boast about possessing the third best defence in terms of xGA, currently sitting at +4.20 in comparison to what they have conceded.
Jurgen Klopp and his Liverpool side are on the verge of making history this weekend. Only Chelsea, Arsenal and Manchester City have managed to go 30 matches unbeaten, a record that Liverpool will match if they leave Selhurst with at least a point. The Reds’ 3-1 win over title rivals Manchester City last time out put clear daylight between the two sides at the top of the table and that gap could potentially grow to 12 if results continue to go Klopp’s way.
Crystal Palace vs. Liverpool - Odds & Spreads
Crystal Palace were the last team to beat Jurgen Klopp at Anfield, doing so in April 2017, but they face a totally different side on Saturday. The Eagles are way outsiders at 6/1, with Liverpool boasting favourite odds of 21/50 and a draw currently priced at 15/4.
Jurgen Klopp’s side can also point to a Win Index of 18.5-19.75 in comparison to Palace’s 4.25-5.5. Liverpool might be comfortable league leaders, but they have still only managed two clean sheets all season. We have Total Goals for the game currently priced at 2.9-3.1, with a First Goal timed at 30.5-33 minutes.
Everton vs. Norwich - Can Silva Steer Clear Of Danger?
Following a dismal run of form that saw four consecutive losses across September and October, Marco Silva’s Everton side have slowly begun rebuilding themselves and steering clear of danger. A home draw against Tottenham was followed by a crucial, if unimpressive, win at Southampton. With their next five games after this weekend seeing them come up against Leicester, Liverpool, Chelsea, Manchester United and Arsenal, this game could be absolutely crucial in the Toffees’ season.
After that legendary win against Manchester City, it’s increasingly looked like a limp and condemned season for Norwich. Just one point from their past seven games has seen the Canaries concede 16 goals and reply with just 2, culminating in their most damaging result of the season at home to Watford last time out. What’s worse for Norwich fans is that their xG of +1.66, xGA of -1.32 and xPTs of +1.35 shows that the Canaries are exactly where they deserve to be.
Everton vs. Norwich - Odds & Spreads
It’s hard to see where a win is going to come from for Norwich, and our traders have made them heavy outsiders for this fixture at 13/2. Silva’s side come into this game as favourites in our Premier League odds at 2/ 5, with a draw between the two priced at 15/4.
Everton’s Win Index is currently priced at 18.75-20, with Norwich’s at 4.25-5.5. Total Goals for the game has been set at 3.05-3.25, with a First Everton Goal set for 38-41 minutes and a First Norwich Goal set at 61.5-64.5 minutes.
Watford vs. Burnley - Onwards And Upwards For Watford?
They might have had to wait an agonising twelve matchdays, but Quique Sanches Flores’ Watford side finally have a win in the Premier League. Rising to 18th in the table, Flores’ side have only lost once in their previous five games, a 2-1 loss at home to Chelsea, and have even managed to keep a clean sheet in three of those games. With that first win under their belts, attention can now be drawn to their attack, which is still stuck at +7.29 xG against what they have scored this season.
Whilst they might be five places and six points better off than they were at this stage last season, it’s been a hard to gauge season so far for Sean Dyche’s Clarets. Four of their five losses this season have come up against members of the league’s top five sides and, whilst they were on the receiving end of a 3-0 thumping by Sheffield United, the side come into this game on the back of a terrific performance against West Ham.
Watford vs. Burnley - Odds & Spreads
Burnley just about edge out as favourites for this game at 5/4 odds. Watford then come in at 11/5, with a draw between the two sides the outsider at 23/10.
Watford’s Win Index for the game is currently priced at 12.75-14.25 in our markets, with Burnley’s coming in at 9.25-10.75. We have Total Goals across the game priced at 2.5-2.7, with a First Goal timed at 35.5-38.5 minutes on the clock.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea - Can City Bounce Back Against Super Frank?
Sarcastic handshakes and VAR debates aside for a moment, there’s no real denying the fact that Manchester City were humbled at Anfield last time out. The side looked frustrated, restricted and increasingly desperate as the game wore on, with Pep’s side slipping to nine points behind the league leaders. Whilst their 35 goals scored remains comfortably the best in the division, it’s clear that this is the most vulnerable City have looked since Guardiola’s first season and the pressure is slowly beginning to mount.
On the flip side, the good times keep rolling on for Frank Lampard at Stamford Bridge. Six wins in a row has seen the Blues open up a nine point gap between themselves and 5th place, with the likes of Christian Pulisic, Mason Mount and Tammy Abraham all producing some scintillating football at times.
Manchester City vs. Chelsea - Odds & Spreads
With three defeats now littering his side’s season, Pep Guardiola can scarcely afford another ‘L’ next to his team. Despite their loss last time out, City still find themselves as heavy favourites in our markets at 21/50. Chelsea are currently the heavy outsider at 11/2, with a draw between these two currently priced at 4/1.
Manchester City currently boast a Win Index of 18.5-19.75 in our latest markets, with Chelsea’s Win Index alternatively available at 4.5-5.75. These two sides have notched up a whopping 62 goals between them so far this season, and Total Goals for the game has been set at 3.35-3.55, with a First Goal time priced at 28.5-31 minutes.
Sheffield United vs. Manchester United - Wilder Continues The Hunt For Europe
Sheffield United have been wonderful so far this season. The Blades are currently ahead of the likes of Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United on 17 points and are unbeaten in four games now. The foundation for their success this season has been in their steely defence, conceding just 9, the second best in the league, with an xGA of +7.36.
Don’t say it too loudly, but Manchester United might be beginning to turn a corner under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. With a dodgy away loss to Bournemouth excluded, United are unbeaten in three since their gutsy display against Liverpool and returned a bit of swagger to their style of play with wins over Norwich and Brighton. Their xGA has fallen to just -0.90 against what they have conceded and the likes of Marcus Rashford are really beginning to find some form in front of goal now.
Sheffield United vs. Manchester United - Odds & Spreads
While the hunt for European football goes on for Chris Wilder and co, they find themselves as the outsiders in our fixed odds markets at 12/5. Solskjaer’s United side edge out in front as favourites at 6/5, with a draw between the two priced at 9/4.
Manchester United’s xG continues to be an issue for the Red Devils at +5.45, which might make this week’s Bad Beat promotion an attractive proposition. If you back either one of these sides to win and they go onto lose, but crucially win on xG across the 90 minutes, our traders will fully refund your stake! (T&Cs apply). Manchester United’s Win Index for this game has been priced at 13-14.5, with Sheffield United’s currently at 9-10.5. We have Total Goals for the match priced at 2.3-2.5, with a First Man United Goal timed at 51-54 minutes and a first Sheffield United Goal priced at 58.5-61.5 minutes.
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle - Who’s Going To Pull Away From The Drop?
Villa come into this weekend on the back of three successive defeats to Manchester City, Liverpool and Wolves and are precariously placed just one position and three points above the drop zone. Only Southampton and Norwich have lost more games than Dean Smith’s side, though all but two of those came up against members of the league’s top five.
On the flip side, Steve Bruce’s side continue to defy doubts and expectations by hauling his Toon side to 13th in the table on the back of a three match unbeaten run, including successive wins over West Ham and Bournemouth. Though they have lost four of their six games on the road this season, their xGA of +2.23 shows plenty of potential as a team who could grind these tough fixtures out.
Aston Villa vs. Newcastle - Odds & Spreads
Going against the form of the two sides, Villa are priced as pretty heavy favourites at 21/20. Our traders have priced the odds of a draw and an away Newcastle win exactly the same at 12/5.
Dean Smith’s Villa side enter this matchup with a Win Index of 13.5-15, with Newcastle coming in at 8.75-10.25. Total Goals for the game have been priced at 2.5-2.7, with a First Match Goal time of 35-38 minutes.
Will Manchester City be able to keep pace with Liverpool? Can Jose hit the ground running at Spurs? Make sure you check out all of our Premier League spread betting and football markets for all the latest, tips, odds and offers.