Premier League Preview | Matchday 14 | Odds & Spreads
Premier League Matchday 14: Weekend Betting Preview
We’re beginning to approach the halfway point of this year’s Premier League season, and the pressure is really beginning to mount for certain teams. We’ve already seen two managers being given the boot by their clubs and the likes of Pellegrini, Silva and Emery all seem to be hanging onto their jobs by a thread. With crucial, must-win fixtures coming up this weekend for all three of these coaches, matchday 14 looks set to be a weekend of action that you don’t want to miss out on. Sporting Index will be on hand to keep you right in the loop with the latest Premier League odds from across the Premier League board, with markets available for every minute of every game.
Newcastle vs. Manchester City - Can Pep Keep Up?
Steve Bruce’s return to Villa Park last week might have ultimately ended in disappointment, however his Newcastle side are still sat in a much healthier position than what most would have predicted before the start of the season. The Toon are currently in 14th position on 15 points with a healthy xGA (expected goals against) of +2.93 against what they should have conceded, showcasing their sturdiness at the back. On top of that, only Arsenal have been able to go to Newcastle and pick up all three points so far this season, a run that stretches all the way back to the opening game of the season.
Pep Guardiola must be getting absolutely sick and tired of Liverpool’s constant stream of last-gasp goals. His team’s three losses this season has opened up a nine-point gap between them and their Merseyside counter-parts, however it was normal service resumed last week as they saw off a stiff challenge from Frank Lampard’s inspired Chelsea side. 37 goals at an xG (expected goals) of +1.81 shows that firepower hasn’t been a problem for Guardiola’s side, though their 14 goals against is 12 worse than at this point last year.
Newcastle vs. Manchester City - Odds & Spreads
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are our traders’ heavy favourites in this clash at 2/11. Way, way behind them is a draw at 6/1, with a shocking Newcastle win currently priced at 14/1.
Whilst they might have thrown City’s title challenge into jeopardy last season, Newcastle’s Win Index for this game is currently only at 2-3, compared to Manchester City’s 21.25-22.25. Total Goals across the game has been priced by our traders at 3.3-3.5, with the pricing on City scoring 3 and winning currently at 12-15.
Burnley vs. Crystal Palace - A Battle for Midtable Supremacy
Having lost three in a row during the back end of October, Sean Dyche’s side come into this match having turned their form around and riding high after two consecutive wins over West Ham and Watford. Both those games ended with a comfortable 3-0 scoreline for the Clarets and saw them leap above Unai Emery’s Arsenal into 7th in the table.
With just one point from their past five games, Crystal Palace finally have a matchday where they’re not playing one of the league’s traditional ‘big boys’. With their last five fixtures coming against Manchester City, Arsenal, Leicester, Chelsea and Liverpool, it’s been a horrible run of fixtures that has seen Roy Hodgson’s team drop from 8th in the table down to 13th. However, before that run of fixtures, their form was very good, only losing twice in their opening eight games.
Burnley vs. Crystal Palace - Odds & Spreads
In what promises to be a game that could swing either way, our traders have edged Burnley out into slight favourites in our football betting markets at 13/10. An away Palace win and a draw between the two sides have equal pricing just behind at 11/5.
With what promises to be a tough game to call, our Bad Beat promotion is on hand for those who find themselves on the wrong end of the scoreline. Back either of these sides to win and if they lose, but crucially win on xG across the match, we will completely refund your stake!
Burnley’s Win Index for this game is currently priced at 12.5-14, with Palace’s just behind at 9.5-11. Total Goals for this game has been priced at 2.3-2.5, with a First Match Goal time currently priced at 37.5-40.5 minutes on the clock.
Chelsea vs. West Ham - The End for Pellegrini?
Despite something of a late rally that nearly saw the completion of a thrilling comeback, Saturday’s defeat to Tottenham marked seven consecutive games without a win for Manuel Pellegrini’s West Ham side. Five losses, including three in a row coming into this fixture, has seen the Hammers fall from 5th in the table down to 17th and just three points above the drop zone. Issues at the back have cost West Ham dearly throughout the season, with their 23 goals against the third worst currently in the division. They face a seriously tough task this weekend against Chelsea and another loss might just be the final nail in the coffin for Pellegrini.
Prior to their defeat to Manchester City last weekend, Chelsea had been in unstoppable form, registering six wins in a row in the league. Whilst their attack has seen them carve out a 7-point gap between them and fifth place in the table, their defence continues to separate them from the three teams above them. Whilst Liverpool, Leicester and City can boast healthy xGAs of +1.77, +5.93 and +0.31 respectively, Chelsea’s -3.52 against what they have conceded shows that they are one of the league’s leakiest sides.
Chelsea vs. West Ham - Odds & Spreads
The end is increasingly looking nigh for Pellegrini’s Hammers, and they come into this game as rank outsiders at 9/1. Chelsea’s imperious form for most of this season sees them come out in our markets with odds of 27/100, with a stalemate currently priced at 5/1.
Frank Lampard’s side can boast a Win Index of 20.25-21.5 in comparison to West Ham’s lowly 3-4. Both sides have conceded a whopping 42 goals between them this season, and we have Total Goals for the game priced at 3.35-3.55, with a First Chelsea Goal at 33.5-36.5 minutes and a First West Ham Goal at 63-66 minutes on the clock.
Liverpool vs. Brighton - Will Jurgen Klopp Ever Actually Lose A Game?
April 2017 was the last time Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool lost a Premier League match at Anfield, with Christian Benteke (of all people) netting twice in a 1-2 Crystal Palace win, a scarcely believable run of 46 games in a row. The Reds are now unbeaten in 30 Premier League games, only Arsenal and Chelsea can point to a longer record in the league’s history, and everything seems to be aligning quite nicely for a title celebration come the end of the season. No team has scored more goals in the 85th minute onwards than Liverpool, with Klopp’s side now on 5 separate goals in their 13 games.
Graham Potter’s revolution at Brighton has seen the Seagulls steering well clear of the relegation zone all season, however they find themselves in the middle of a daunting run of fixtures. Back-to-back losses against Manchester United and Leicester last time out does not set them up well for a trip to Anfield and then the Emirates the following week. That being said, their xGA of +4.88 is the third-best in the division and could be the potential lifesaver against the likes of Salah, Firmino and Mane.
Liverpool vs. Brighton - Odds & Spreads
The Premier League’s champions-to-be are unsurprisingly our favourites in this match, coming in at 1/ 5. Honours being shared then comes in at 11/2, with a truly shocking Brighton win the rank outsider at 14/1.
Liverpool’s supremacy over every side in the land gives them a Win Index of 21.25-22.25 in comparison to Brighton’s 2.25-3.25. Whilst they may be sitting pretty at the top of the table, Liverpool have only managed to keep two clean sheets all season and our traders have priced Total Goals for the game at 3.25-3.45. First Match Goal time for this fixture is priced at 28.5-31 minutes on the clock, with a First Liverpool Goal set at 33-36 minutes.
Spurs vs. Bournemouth - Will The Mourinho Magic Keep Going?
Jose Mourinho’s first test as Tottenham manager was navigated reasonably convincingly last time out against West Ham, taking Spurs up to 10th in the table and registering just their fourth win in the league so far. Despite missing plenty of opportunities to well and truly put them out of sight against West Ham, Spurs’ xG of -4.88 against what they have scored is comfortably the second best in the division. Despite this, Tottenham have not registered consecutive wins in the Premier League since early April last season, against Crystal Palace and Huddersfield.
Having registered their first win since September against Manchester United at the start of the month, Eddie Howe’s Bournemouth side arrive in the capital on the back of two disappointing defeats away to Newcastle and at home to Wolves. 4 wins, 4 draws and 5 losses still sees the Cherries comfortably sat in 11th, six clear of the relegation zone, and an xGA of +3.16 shows that there’s no need to begin panicking on the south coast just yet.
Spurs vs. Bournemouth - Odds & Spreads
Mourinho’s Tottenham side come into this fixture as pretty hefty favourites in our football markets at 3/ 8, compared a draw at 4/1 and an outside Bournemouth win at 13/2.
A Win Index of 18.75-20 against 4-2.25 shows the supremacy Spurs have in our markets, with Total Goals for this game being priced at 3.15-3.35. The First Tottenham Goal time has been priced at 36.5-39.5 minutes, with Bournemouth’s First Goal time currently at 60.5-63.5 minutes on the clock.
Southampton vs. Watford - Relegation Six-Pointer Under the Lights
Despite being at the end of November, Southampton are still awaiting their first home win of the 2019/20 season; their one point against Manchester United in August remains the only point the Saints have registered at Saint Mary’s this season, the worst record in the league. The Saints are winless in eight consecutive games, having lost six of those, but seem to be slowly finding steadiness with a couple of good performances against Manchester City and Arsenal last time out.
The only other team in the league without a home win all season, Watford looked to have turned a corner following their win against Norwich two matchdays ago. They had only lost once in five games, were finally off the bottom of the table with their first win of the campaign and were tipped to press on against Burnley at home. One 0-3 loss later and it feels as though the Hornets are right back to square one. Their xPTS (expected points) of +8.40 against what they have registered is easily the worst in the division and shows exactly why they are where they are in the table.
Southampton vs. Watford - Odds & Spreads
A relegation six-pointer in every sense of the term, Southampton’s improved performances in recent weeks have seen them priced as our trader’s favourites at 11/10. Watford then sneak ahead of a draw as the next favourite at 12/5 and 5/2 respectively.
With both sides regularly disappointing their fans this season, it might of some comfort to hear this game qualifies for our Bad Beat promotion. Back either one of these sides to win and claim back your full stake if they go on to lose the match but win on xG across the 90 minutes!
Southampton’s Win Index has been priced at 13.5-15 in comparison to Watford’s 8.75-10.25. Our traders have priced Total Goals for the game priced at 2.55-2.75, with a First Goal Time set at 34.5-37.5 minutes on the clock.
Norwich vs. Arsenal - Emery gone, Arsenal in turmoil?
Seemingly dead and buried before last week, Daniel Farke’s Norwich produced the shock of the week as they stunned Marco Silva’s side at Goodison. It ended a run of seven games without a win, six of those games being losses, and took the Canaries up to 18th in the table and 3 points from safety. Having scored just twice in the previous seven games, their two goals against Everton took their xG to +1.47 against what they have scored so far this season.
Arsenal are seriously outdoing themselves this year in terms of their annual implosion. Two wins from their past eleven games is the kind of stat you would associate with a relegation-threatened side and doesn’t even begin to touch on the discontent rife around the club currently. Arsenal have claimed just two clean sheets all season, are currently 8 points off the top four and are even operating with a negative goal difference. The board have therefore stepped in and sacked Unai Emery, Freddie Ljungberg will oversee this fixture.
Norwich vs. Arsenal - Odds & Spreads
Their relegation-threatening form has seen Arsenal limp out as favourites in our Premier League markets at 5/ 6, with a home Norwich win coming in just ahead of a draw at 11/4 and 3/1 respectively.
With both sides failing to grab a hold of some good form all season so far, this week’s Bad Beat promotion could be absolutely crucial for anyone thinking of backing either of these two. Should you back one of these two sides and they lose another match, but manage to edge out in xG, we will fully refund your stake.
Wolves vs. Sheffield United - The Hunt for Europe On The Cards For Winners
Wolves continued to find their stride in this year’s Premier League with back-to-back wins over Aston Villa and Bournemouth, rising to 5th in the table on 19 points. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are now unbeaten in eight games since September and seem to have found a good balance between the league and their European adventures; their xPTS of +0.48 indicates that they are pretty much spot on for where they are in the table.
Their opponents for this game aren’t doing too shabby themselves. Future European powerhouse Sheffield United have lost just three times this season, are unbeaten in six and have already taken points off the likes of Arsenal, Chelsea, Everton, Tottenham and Manchester United. Chris Wilder’s side also possess an xGA of -5.69 against what they have conceded, which is currently the league’s best.
Wolves vs. Sheffield United - Odds & Spreads
Both of these sides have had good seasons so far, but our traders have picked out Wolves as the favourites this week at 20/21. A draw between the two sides then comes in at 12/5, with a win for Wilder and co. currently priced at 3/1.
With a goal difference of just +6 between them, Wolves’ Win Index for this match has been priced at 14.5-16 against Sheffield’s 7.75-9.25. Total Goals for the game have been priced at 2.25-2.45, with a First Goal time of 37.5-40.5 minutes on the clock and odds on the Last Match Goal coming at 59-62 minutes.
Leicester vs. Everton - Curtains for Silva?
Leicester continued their quest to convince the country that they’re title contenders with another routine win last time out, this time away at Brighton. Jamie Vardy took his tally of goals to 12 for the season as Leicester kept a grip of 2nd place in the table, currently running at an xPTS of -8.34 against what they have. On top of their danger in front of goal, Leicester can also boast about having the best defence in the league; their 8 goals conceded all season makes them the only side left in the league to have conceded fewer than 10 goals, their xGA of +5.93 is the best in the land and their 6 clean sheets so far is also a Premier League record.
Despite not playing well for pretty much the entirety of the season, Marco Silva looked to have secured two potentially season-defining results with recent wins against West Ham and Southampton. It was straight back to the drawing board last time out however as Everton slumped to a shocking loss to Norwich, their 7th loss in 13 games, and pulling them back down into a relegation scrap.
Leicester vs. Everton - Odds & Spreads
Our traders have backed Brendan Rodgers to keep the good times rolling at Leicester, pricing them out as favourites at 4/6. Marco Silva is in desperate need of a win but can only point to outsider odds of 15/4, with a draw sandwiched in between the two at 3/1.
Rodgers’ side have a Win Index of 16-17.5 against Everton’s 6.5-7.75, with Total Goals in the game priced at 2.6-2.8. We have a First Leicester Goal priced at 44-47 minutes and a First Everton Goal at 60-63 minutes on the clock, with a Last Match Goal timed at 63-66 minutes.
Manchester United vs. Aston Villa - Can Solskjaer Prove He’s the Right Man?
Despite looking like they might be on the verge of turning a corner and going down the right path, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer has found himself under some substantial pressure thanks to a Mauricio Pochettino-shaped shadow over Old Trafford. United’s 3-3 draw against Sheffield United kept them in 9th place in the table on 17 points with just 4 wins to their name. Their xPTS of +7.35 against what they have registered is the worst swing of any team in the division, with their xG of +4.07 also the fourth-worst of any side in the league.
Aston Villa’s 2-0 win over Newcastle ended a run of three straight losses and saw Dean Smith’s side climb above West Ham and Everton into 15th. 4 wins, 2 draws and 7 losses has proven to be a steady enough start to life back in the big league, however, with their next three fixtures coming against United, Chelsea and Leicester, the festive season could be crucial to defining how 2019 ends for the Villains.
Manchester United vs. Aston Villa - Odds & Spreads
Solskjaer’s side are currently priced as pretty substantial favourites at 40/85, with a draw between the two priced at 7/2 and an away Aston Villa currently at 11/2.
United’s Win Index has been priced at 18-19.25, with Villa’s currently coming in at 4.75-6. Both these sides have registered 19 goals so far this season and we have Total Goals for this game currently priced at 2.85-3.05, with a First Goal time of 32-35 minutes, and a Last Goal time of 66-69 minutes.
Will these under-fire managers crack from the pressure, or will they follow Unai's fate? Make sure you check out our leading Premier League spreads and top football markets for all of the best and latest odds and offers from the world of sport.