Premier League Preview | Matchday 17 | Odds & Spreads
Premier League Matchday 17: Weekend Betting Preview
It may be cold outside, but the heat of the Premier League has managers up and down the land looking nervously over their shoulders. Sackings are rife, the pressure is on and the table is (finally) beginning to take shape as we prepare to welcome the halfway mark. Liverpool look primed to make this one of the most unremarkable title ‘races’ in living memory, Pep has confirmed all of our suspicions that Manchester City and their infinite amount of funds can no longer compete with football’s elite, whilst Duncan Ferguson has every Everton fan now heading into work wearing sweatbands underneath their suits.
Arsenal face off against Manchester City in this weekend’s headline fixture, with both sides needing to halt the mini-crisis threatening to take over their sides. Whilst on the subject of crisis, bottom-side Watford can thank their lucky stars it’s only a case of travelling to Anfield to face ‘all-but-crowned- champions’ Liverpool in their hunt for just a second win of the season, whilst their fellow relegation zone occupants Norwich and Southampton face off against Leicester and West Ham respectively.
Liverpool vs. Watford - An Easy First Test For Pearson
Whilst their fixture scheduling currently resembles something more akin to a torrid Fifa 20 Career Mode, Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool continue to get their job done. Their midweek battering of Everton pulled the plug on Marco Silva’s reign and they became only the third side to win at Bournemouth last weekend. Eight goals in their last two games and just a third clean sheet of the season against the Cherries shows that Klopp might just be preparing to let his side run riot a little bit more. On top of their 14-point gap at the top of the table, Klopp also remains unbeaten at Anfield since his side lost to Crystal Palace in April 2017.
For newly appointed Watford manager Nigel Pearson, this fixture is as much of a ‘free hit’ as you could possibly ask for. His new side are now on their fourth manager in the dugout and are still stranded at the bottom of the table on just the one win. The only team not in double figures for goals or points, the six point gap between themselves and safety is already looking pretty ominous.
Liverpool vs. Watford - Odds & Spreads
In what should come as no surprise, even the most die-hard of Watford fans, Liverpool are our traders favourites at 2/11. Commendable as it might be, backing a Watford win comes with odds of 14/1, with a draw currently sandwiched in-between the two at 6/1.
Klopp, Van Dijk and co. currently boast a Win Index of 21.25-22.25 against Watford’s 2-3. Liverpool have scored the league’s second best haul of 40 goals so far this season, and we have Total Goals for the game priced at 3.45-3.65, with a First Match Goal timed at 28.5-30 minutes on the clock.
Burnley vs. Newcastle - Steve Bruce To Start Dreaming Of Europe?
After a fairly solid and successful start to their 2019/20 campaign, Sean Dyche’s Burnley side have fallen down to 13th in the table following a run of six losses in their past eight games, including three in a row coming into this match. They remain just three points above the drop zone and, perhaps more worryingly for Dyche, have already conceded three goals or more in five of their matches so far. Their xGA (Expected Goals Against) of -7.84 against what they have conceded shows that they are the second leakiest side currently in the division as well, only ahead of Southampton and their 0-9 mauling.
With all the flack he was on the end of in the summer, Steve Bruce must be going into every press conference doing his very best to not look too smug. 4 wins, 2 draws and just the 1 loss in their past seven games has seen his Toon side climb to 11th in the table on 22 points and they remain six points clear of danger.
Burnley vs. Newcastle - Odds & Spreads
Our latest football markets have gone for home advantage over form in this match, making Burnley the favourites at 1/1. A stalemate between the two just edges out Steve Bruce’s side as the next favourites at 5/2 and 13/5 respectively. Our Bad Beat Promotion is on hand and in play for those who find themselves on the wrong end of a harsh loss here too. Back either one of these sides to win and if they go onto lose the match, but win on Expected Goals across the ninety minutes, we will completely refund your stake!
Sean Dyche’s team currently have a Win Index of 14-15.5 in our latest spreads, with Newcastle coming in at 8.25-9.75. Total Goals for the game is currently priced at 2.4-2.6, with a First Goal time of 36-39 and a Last Match Goal time of 61-64 minutes on the clock.
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth - The Blues Or The Cherries To Get Back On Track?
Following a run of seven wins out of eight games, Frank Lampard’s young Chelsea side are in danger of hitting a bit of a rut as they approach the new year. That run of six straight wins across September and going into November has suddenly turned into three losses in the past four games, leaving the side Blues looking ever so slightly over their shoulder at the chasing pack. They are currently the only side the top 13 to have a negative xG, xGA and xPTS against what they have registered, with their xGA of -4.50 against what they have conceded currently worse than the likes of Norwich, Watford and even Arsenal.
Eddie Howe and his Bournemouth arguably come into this game in the toughest run they’ve endured since their promotion to the Premier League all the way back in 2015. Whoever cursed the Bournemouth camp five weeks or so ago must be pretty pleased with themselves, with the side currently rife with injuries and in the midst of a five game losing streak.
Chelsea vs. Bournemouth - Odds & Spreads
Despite their recent stumbles against sides struggling for form, Chelsea still find themselves priced as our heavy favourites at 1/ 4. A draw at Stamford Bridge is currently sat at 5/1, with Eddie Howe and co. at 10/1. Frank Lampard’s side could really do with three points this weekend and currently boast a Win Index of 20.25-21.5. Bournemouth have never lost six games in a row during their spell in the Premier League, however their Win Index is certainly the outsider here at 2.75-3.75. Our traders have priced Total Goals for the game at 3.4-3.6, with a First Goal Time priced at 28-30.5 minutes.
Leicester vs. Norwich - Crunch Time For The Canaries
Leicester City are, once again, becoming the Premier League’s massive overachievers. They’ve only scored one goal less than Liverpool (with a league best xG of -11.26), have conceded four fewer (with a xGA of +6.62), and are currently sat with the third best xPTS tally against what they’ve registered at -9.63. They have won their past eight league games, have tied manager Brendan Rodgers down to a new contract and still boast the league’s most prolific frontman in Jamie Vardy. Making it look easy.
Eight losses in their past eleven games has seen Daniel Farke’s side remain rooted in the bottom three, with the Canaries having developed an unhealthy habit in recent weeks of losing crunch games against their nearby rivals, slipping up to losses against Sheffield United and Southampton in their past two fixtures. If Norwich are going to pull themselves back towards safety, now’s the time to start producing.
Leicester vs. Norwich - Odds & Spreads
In what should come as a surprise to absolutely no one, Leicester are our favourites for this match at 2/9. Whilst a win would be invaluable to Norwich at this point, they are pretty rank outsiders in our Premier League betting markets at 11/1, with a draw coming in between the two at 11/2. Leicester’s Win Index of 20.5-21.75 certainly looks imperious against Norwich’s 2.5-3.5, with our traders currently pricing Total Goals for this game at 3.35-3.55. Norwich have scored 17 goals against Leicester’s 39 so far this season, and you can get pricing on both side’s First Goal Times at 64.5-67.5 and 33-36 minutes respectively.
Sheffield United vs. Aston Villa - Can Villa Steer Clear Of The Drop?
The fact that Sheffield United have only spent three weeks of the season outside of the league’s top ten really shows just how phenomenal they have been. Their three overlapping centre-backs has proven to be the cornerstone of their success, racking up an xGA of +4.08 against the 16 goals they have conceded, a record which is comfortably better than the likes of Wolves, Tottenham, Manchester United and Chelsea. With that being said, last week’s win over Norwich was their first in four attempts, though their opponents did include Tottenham, Manchester United, Wolves and Newcastle.
With their next five fixtures coming against Sheffield United, Southampton, Norwich, Watford and Burnley, now is the time for Dean Smith, John Terry and co. to really start trying to pull away from the drop zone. Whilst they might only be outside of the relegation zone on goal difference, the fact that all but one of Villa’s defeats this season have come against sides currently in the top ten really does indicate there’s no need to begin panicking, yet.
Sheffield United vs. Aston Villa - Odds & Spreads
All four of Sheffield’s losses this season have come at Bramall Lane, however they’re still priced as our heavy favourites at 17/20. A draw just edges out past Villa as our next favourite at 13/5 and 3/1 respectively.
Chris Wilder and co. boast a Win Index of 14.75-16.25 against Villa’s 7.5-9 in our spread markets heading into Saturday’s fixture. Aston Villa have scored more goals than any other side currently outside the top ten this season, but come up against one of the division’s most drilled defences; we have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.65-2.85, with a First Match Goal time of 34-37 minutes.
Southampton vs. West Ham - One Last Chance For Pellegrini?
Crucial back to back wins against relegation rivals Watford and Norwich saw Southampton lifted out of the bottom three for the first time since matchday 9, right before last week’s loss to Newcastle saw them dumped right back to square one. Thanks hugely to that infamous mauling by Leicester, Southampton have conceded the most amount of goals in the league and their xGA of -8.32 against what they have is worryingly miles away from what their rivals are putting up.
We think it’s pretty safe to say now that Manuel Pellegrini is skating on thin, thin ice at this point. His West Ham side, tipped for a top six finish at the start of the season, have lost all but two of their last nine games, even somehow managing to lose to Freddie Ljunberg’s mighty Arsenal side. Though he brushed off worries of being relegated following that loss, another taste of defeat this weekend should spell the end for Pellegrini at the London Stadium.
Southampton vs. West Ham - Odds & Spreads
Our traders have marked out Ralph Hassenhuttl’s Saints side as the favourites for Saturday’s evening fixture, coming in at 17/20 against West Ham’s 11/4. A draw between these two struggling sides is the outsider here at 3/1. Southampton’s Win Index is currently priced at 14.5-16 against West Ham’s 7.75-9.25 in our Premier League spreads. Total Goals for the game is currently priced at 3-3.2, with a First Goal Time of 30.5-33.5 minutes on the clock.
Manchester United vs. Everton - Are United Back? Or Another False Dawn?
Manchester United are the next unlucky side to have to take on the sweatband-wearing, ballboy-hugging force of big Duncan Ferguson. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side seemingly stunned the whole world with their best performance in years against their cross-town rivals last weekend, climbing up to 5th place from seemingly out of nowhere. There have been plenty of false dawns for United since the retirement of Sir Alex Ferguson, will this run of form prove to be another one?
Crowning a triumphant return to Goodison with a pulsating 3-1 win over Chelsea, Duncan Ferguson and his Everton side can now finally begin looking back up the table. The Toffees have drawn one, won one and lost a whopping six of their away games so far this season and are currently two points above the drop zone. Their xGA of -7.19 is the third worst in the division and showcases exactly where it is the blue side of Merseyside have struggled so far this campaign.
Manchester United vs. Everton - Odds & Spreads
United’s bashing of their top six rivals sees them coming into this weekend as the nailed on favourites in our football markets at 4/ 5, with a draw priced at 5/2 and an Everton win at 7/2.
With both sides struggling for form at various points in the season, it might be of some comfort to hear that their matchup makes up part of our Bad Beat promotion this week. Back either of these sides to win and if they end up on the wrong end of a loss, but crucially win on their xG over the ninety minutes, we will refund your entire stake!
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side currently boast a Win Index of 15.25-16.75 against Everton’s 7-8.5. These two sides have conceded a total of 47 goals between them across their seasons so far, and we have Total Goals for this game priced at 2.65-2.85, with a First Goal Time priced at 35-38 minutes.
Wolves vs. Spurs - The Hunt For Europe Back On
Wolves’ love of a good draw this season continued after a small blip of wins last time out at Brighton, drawing 2-2 in what was a fairly exhilarating matchup. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have registered nine draws from their sixteen games so far; however, just two losses in the league has seen them shoot up to 6th place and they remain unbeaten since September, a run of eleven games now. Raul Jimenez in particular has looked the star man for Wolves, scoring six and setting up four in the league so far.
With one Manchester United-shaped blip aside, it’s been smooth sailing so far for Jose Mourinho at Spurs. Registering just their second clean sheet of the season last weekend, Mourinho’s men have looked frightening in attack, netting twelve goals in just four games since the Portuguese took charge. In fact, their xG of -8.01 against the 30 goals they’ve scored this season remains the second best in the league, ahead of the likes of Liverpool, Manchester City and Chelsea.
Wolves vs. Spurs - Odds & Spreads
In what is shaping up to be a tough match to call between two of the league’s form teams, Mourinho’s Spurs just edge out as favourites at 23/20, Wolves coming in just behind at 23/10 and a draw priced at 12/5. Wolves have lost only once at home this year and boast a Win Index of 9.25-10.75 against Tottenham’s 13-14.5. Our traders have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.5-2.7 with a First Match Goal timed at 35.5-38.5 minutes and Goal Rush at 30-33.
Arsenal vs. Manchester City - Freddie Has His Arsenal Back
Pep Guardiola’s side have failed to win two of their past three games, lost a Manchester Derby against a side that have dropped points against West Ham, Aston Villa and Newcastle this season, and have already racked up four losses for the season, the same amount as they lost over the course of the entire 2018/19 campaign. It’s not looking good for the Cityzens, is what we’re really saying here. Mind games or not, Pep’s recent comments that his side are no longer capable of competing with the top sides around them are beginning to look like some of his most honest of the season.
Despite looking like the charity club of the season with how many points they were seemingly gifting away on the eve of Christmas, Arsenal managed to scrape together a valuable win against West Ham last week. They remain in ninth on 22 points and their xPTS of -0.36 indicates that it is exactly where they deserve to be still.
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton - An M23 Derby Under The Monday Lights
A run of two wins on the bounce was brought to an end by last week’s pretty dire display against Watford, however Roy Hodgson’s Crystal Palace side look primed and ready for another season well clear of any danger. Currently 10th with 22 points, Palace’s xGA of +7.60 remains the best in the division and showcases exactly where their success has come from this success.
Brighton, on the other hand, are really starting to enjoy their newfound approach of possession-based attacking football courtesy of Graham Potter. The Seagulls took four points out of six against Arsenal and Wolves in the past week, taking their tally of goals for the season up to 20 and six more than their M23 rivals. Four points off the relegation zone having successfully negotiated a tough run of fixtures, Brighton can finally begin looking higher up the table.
Crystal Palace vs. Brighton - Odds & Spreads
Home advantage is often key in derby matchups, and we’ve tipped the scales ever so slightly in Palace’s favour with odds of 6/4 against Brighton’s 19/10. A draw between the two just comes up short at 43/20.
Palace’s home advantage translates to a Win Index of 11.75-13.25 against Brighton’s 10.25-11.75 in our latest Premier League spreads. Total Goals for Derby Day between the two sides has been priced at 2.3-2.5, with a First Palace Goal priced at 54-57 minutes and a First Brighton Goal at 56-59 minutes.
Which side will you take in the league’s latest round of fixtures? Make sure you check out our leading Premier League spreads and latest football markets for the most competitive odds and offers from the world of sport.