Premier League Preview | Matchday 25
Premier League Matchday 25: Weekend Betting Preview
Whilst the title race has been wrapped up in a nice tidy bow and sent over to Merseyside, the drama around the rest of the league has really been turned up a notch in recent weeks. With ‘mid-table mediocrity’ seemingly a thing of the past, it looks like half the league is gunning for top four, whilst the other half are looking nervously over their shoulders at relegation. In one of the most underwhelming January transfer windows the league has ever seen, Southampton have turned themselves into European football hunters, Arsenal keep drawing and West Ham are still struggling.
Jose vs Pep dominates this weekend’s proceedings, with Spurs vs Man City acting as the standout fixture on matchday 25. Whilst he might publicly be saluting his red title rivals, there’s no denying that Pep Guardiola has to be irked by his side’s limp title defence this year, starting this week 16 points behind and a game ahead of Liverpool. Spurs have also struggled for form throughout the campaign, with both Jose and Mauricio Pochettino struggling to get the North London boys above 6th all season.
Leicester vs. Chelsea - Can Chelsea Take Their Chances?
If you ever find yourself in a bad batch of form, all you have to do is book in a fixture against West Ham apparently. Before their thumping return to form against the Hammers last weekend, Brendan Rodgers’ Leicester side had slipped to back to back losses against previously relegation-threatened Southampton and Burnley. Whilst he might still be sitting pretty with 17 goals, 4 assists and 0.59 Expected Goals per ninety, it’s now just one goal in Jamie Vardy’s past eight games, creating a bit of a headache for Premier League fantasy players.
Frank Lampard recently said it was ‘like a broken record’ with how every Chelsea game seems to be going recently: The Blues constantly dominate possession, but suffer from a real lack of creativity from out wide and through the middle. Their xG (Expected Goals) for the season has now risen to +7.21 more than they have scored, the second worst haul of any side in the division, and their disappointing draw against Arsenal last time out was just further proof that the main reason why Chelsea are still in the top four is because of the dross beneath them.
Leicester vs. Chelsea - Odds & Spreads
In what looks like a crucial match in shaking up this year’s top four spots, our latest Premier League odds have priced both sides exactly the same at 6/4. A draw between the two teams available at 11/4.
Rodgers’ side are currently boasting a Win Index of 11.25-12.75 in our latest spreads, with Chelsea at 11-12.5. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.9-3.1, with a First Goal Time of 31-34 minutes and Total Goal Minutes available at 149-159.
Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa - It’s Tough In The Drop
The whole of Bournemouth let out a collective sigh of relief once the final whistle was blown against Brighton last week. The Cherries had been on a run of 10 losses in their past 12 games and leading to more than a few cries of ‘crisis’ around the Vitality. However, with fixtures against Villa, Sheffield United and Burnley all coming up, this could be the start of a real turnaround for Eddie Howe and co.
It’s hard to really pin down what exactly we mean by a ‘one man team’, however we know for sure that Aston Villa are as close as you’re going to come to finding one. Jack Grealish has been the one and only reason for Villa keeping their collective heads above the water this season, having so far racked up 7 goals, 5 assists, 2.10 shots per ninety and 2.69 key passes per ninety in a truly remarkable season so far.
Bournemouth vs. Aston Villa - Odds & Spreads
With both sides claiming pretty vital wins last time out, our traders have priced Eddie Howe and co. as heavy favourites at 21/20. Villa just about edge out a draw next at 12/5 and 13/5 respectively. Bournemouth’s Win Index in our spreads comes in at 13.5-15 against Villa’s 8.75-10.25. We have Total Goals across the game priced at 2.8-3, with a First Match Goal time of 32.5-35.5 minutes on the clock.
Crystal Palace vs. Sheffield United - Defence Meets More Defence
Roy Hodgson has done another impressive job in securing Crystal Palace’s Premier League status and it’s clear to see where the secret of his success lies. No side has a better xGA (Expected Goals Against) tally than Palace’s +9.24 goals fewer than what they have conceded, though they are coming into this game with no clean sheets in their past eight games, a run that only includes one win.
The fact that Sheffield United have practically secured Premier League football by matchday 25 speaks volumes about the season they’ve had under Chris Wilder so far. The Blades have racked up 33 points from their first 24 games, well on course for the magical 40 point mark, and are only behind Palace in regards to the best xGA in the league, sitting at +8.40. They also possess one of the best away records in the league, having only lost two games away from home all season at Anfield and the Etihad.
Crystal Palace vs. Sheffield United - Odds & Spreads
With both sides having steady, solid seasons on the whole, our traders have had a hard time separating the two teams. Wilder's brave Blades are slight favourites at 29/20 against Palace's 2/1 with the draw up for grabs at 43/20. There isn't too much separating the two sides in our latest spread markets either, with Sheffield United's 12-13.5 slightly higher than Palace's 10-11.5. Though both these sides have made their way through the season with defence marked as their priority, we have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.1-2.3.
Liverpool vs. Southampton - And The Reds Go Marching On
Liverpool fans, aren’t you getting bored of all this winning yet? The Reds’ recent win over Manchester United meant that Jurgen Klopp’s side have already beaten every single side in the league, remain unbeaten in the league and have only dropped points in one game this season following their most recent win against West Ham. So impressive is Liverpool’s form, the reds are currently operating at 20.43 points ahead of what we would expect them to be at in terms of their xPTS.
Whilst everyone else has been distracted by the dullest title ‘race’ of recent times, Southampton have snuck their way into transforming themselves from relegation fodder, to European football chasers. Five wins in their previous seven games, with opponents in that time including Chelsea, Spurs and Leicester, has seen Hassenhuttl’s side climb up to 9th in the table and pretty much putting to bed any relegation fears for the remainder of the campaign. Good work from the Saints, on the whole.
Liverpool vs. Southampton - Odds & Spreads
The hunt to become only the second ever unbeaten side in Premier League history rolls on for Liverpool, who come into this game as unsurprising favourites at 27/100. Southampton come to Anfield as the outsiders at 9/1, with a draw sandwiched in between at 19/4. The 2019/20 Premier League champions are currently boasting a Win Index of 20-21.25 against Southampton’s 3.25-4.25. Total Goals for the game has been priced at 3.1-3.3 with Total Goal Minutes of 158-168. We’re also offering spreads on Total Corners and Bookings for the game at 10.7-11.2 and 28-31 respectively.
Newcastle vs. Norwich - The Nail In The Coffin For The Canaries?
Newcastle have spent the majority of their debut season under Steve Bruce massively, massively overperforming. Though they might have scored fewer goals than the likes of Brighton, Aston Villa and West Ham, their defence has been responsible for racking up an xGA better than all but three teams in the league. If we’re going off xPTS (Expected Points) for the season, Newcastle would be halfway to the Championship with just 16.51 points from their first 24 games.
Speaking of teams Championship bound, Daniel Farke’s Canaries are slowly limping their way down to England’s second tier. It’s hard to really criticise Norwich when their promotion to the Premier League was such a surprise in the first place, and recent draws against Palace, Leicester and Spurs have shown that this is still a team with a good amount of heart.
Newcastle vs. Norwich - Odds & Spreads
Steve Bruce’s Toon side are the favourites in our latest Premier League odds at 6/5, just about edging out Norwich and a draw at 9/4 and 12/5 respectively. Newcastle also lead the way in our latest spread markets with a Win Index of 12.75-14.25 and a First Goal Time of 50-53 minutes against Norwich’s 9.25-10.75 and 55.5-58.5 minutes.
Watford vs. Everton - Can Watford Escape The Drop?
Who knew at the start of this season that we would be seeing Nigel Pearson welcoming Carlo Ancelotti to Vicarage Road at the start of February? Nigel Pearson has on the whole been a revelation since taking charge but the Watford manager did hit a slight bump on the road last time out against Aston Villa, dropping to his first loss in charge of the Hornets despite initially taking the lead. It’s all getting a bit tight around the drop zone.
Everton might have only lost once in the nine games since sacking Marco Silva, however the absolutely shocking capitulation against Newcastle last time out was a stark reminder that there is still plenty of work to do for the dynamic duo of Carlo Ancelotti and Duncan Ferguson.
Watford vs. Everton - Odds & Spreads
It looks set to be another impactful weekend for those at nearer the bottom of the table, and we’ve only just edged out Everton as the favourites for this fixture at 6/4. Pearson’s Hornets come in next at 7/4, with the draw at 23/10. Watford’s Win Index has been priced at 10.75-12.25 in our latest spreads, with Everton priced at 11.5-13. We have Total Goals priced at 2.45-2.65, with the aggregate shirt numbers of goalscorers coming in at 37-40.
West Ham vs. Brighton - Will Brighton Bottle Another Six-Pointer?
It has to take a gutsy kind of football fan to support West Ham United. Binning off a Premier League winner to bring back the man who they sacked a year prior is a bold move, one which doesn’t exactly look like it’s paying off so far. Under David Moyes, the Hammers have won one, drawn one and lost three to leave them currently languishing one place above the drop zone, level on points with Bournemouth. Surprisingly though, their defence is still at a healthy xGA of +7.72 goals better than what we would have expected them to concede.
Brighton’s inability to find results from some reasonable performances has really come to bite them in recent times. Whilst the likes of Palace, Newcastle and Southampton have all dug deep and found the results to steer them away from danger, Brighton have become increasingly sucked into a relegation dogfight by passing up on so many must-win games. Their xG has risen to +5.98 goals worse than they should have scored, and their xPTS is stuck at +7.50 fewer than what they should be on, the third worst haul of any side in the league.
West Ham vs. Brighton - Odds & Spreads
This could be a crucial weekend for both these sides and we have priced West Ham as the favourites for the win at 6/4. Graham Potter’s side come in behind at 7/4, with the draw at 12/5. West Ham’s Win Index for the game is currently priced at 11.25-12.75 against Brighton’s 10.75-12.25 by our traders, with Total Goals available at 2.5-2.7 and a First Match Goal Time of 35-38 minutes. Our spreads also have prices on Total Corners and Bookings at 9.8-10.3 and 36-40 respectively.
Man United vs. Wolves - Is Solskjaer The Man?
Is it just us, or do Manchester United and Wolves face off against each other every other week? By some miracle, United still find themselves in fifth place coming into the weekend, though they did widen the gap between themselves and Champions League football again to six points following their 8th loss of the season against Burnley. Consistency is king in the Premier League, and the fact that United are on 10 points fewer than we would expect them to be and have yet to win more than two games in a row so far this season is pretty telling on the whole.
Despite boasting a smaller squad than most League Two sides, Wolves are having another nice, solid season so far. Level on points with United going into the weekend, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side have won just once in their past five games, though two of those games were against Liverpool, who seem to have the cheat codes to the Premier League this year.
Man United vs. Wolves - Odds & Spreads
These two sides have drawn 16 games in the league between them, however we’ve made United our favourites at 23/20, with Wolves coming in at 5/2. The draw is available at 9/4. United’s Win Index is currently priced at 13.25-14.75 against Wolves’ 8.75-10.25 in our spread markets, with Total Goals for the game available at 2.3-2.5.
Burnley vs. Arsenal - Arteta Making A Difference?
Another season, another schooling on how to stay up by Sean Dyche and his Burnley side. Things were actually looking a little bit worrying for the Clarets at one point this season, however surprising back to back wins against Leicester and Man United have lifted Burnley back up to 13th and 7 points clear of danger.
We know that things were fairly dross before his arrival, but we have to ask Arsenal fans: Is Arteta really making THAT much of a difference at the Emirates? Despite whatever supposed improvements in the performances under the Spaniard, the Gunners have still not climbed above 10th in the table, have won just one game, and conceded two red cards in seven games. We get the improved feeling around the place is important, but when do you, as the third biggest club in the country, actually start asking for some results?
Burnley vs. Arsenal - Odds & Spreads
In what would just be his second league win in charge of the boys from North London, Arteta’s Arsenal are our favourites at 1/1. In what would be the Gunners’ 13th of the season, a draw just edges out Burnley as the next favourite at 5/2 and 13/5 respectively.
This game falls into our special Bad Beat promotion for the week. Back either of these teams to win and if they go onto lose the match, but crucially win on xG throughout the ninety minutes, we will refund your stake as a free bet!
10th meets 13th in this match, however Arsenal are definitely boasting the more attractive Win Index with their 13.75-15.25 comfortably towering over Burnley’s 8.5-10. Total Goals for the game has been priced at 2.55-2.75, with Total Goal Minutes set at 132-142 and a First Match Goal Time set at 34.5-37.5 minutes on the clock.
Spurs vs. Man City - A Rivalry Resumed?
There was once a time where Jose vs. Pep was a match that would decide the title races and continental triumphs. However, personal pride seems to be the only thing really driving the appeal of Sunday’s game, with neither of these sides really having a season to write home about so far.
Spurs are definitely beginning to look more and more like a Mourinho side, with the North London outfit trudging their way through four games without a win before narrowly scraping past Norwich last time out. They’re yet to drop any points from winning positions under Mourinho however, it’s just getting into that winning position that Tottenham are finding tough at the moment. Despite Pep’s big compliments to his Red rivals from Merseyside, he will be seething at his sides title defence efforts this season. Despite still being the league’s top scorers with 65 goals at an impressive xG of just -0.71, City have already dropped points in 8 games this season, losing 5 of those already.
Spurs vs. Man City - Odds & Spreads
Pep’s side are our massive favourites for the latest renewal of hostilities between Pep and Jose at 8/15. Mourinho’s men are edged out by the draw as the next favourite at 7/2 and 9/2 respectively.
City’s favourites tag translates to a Win Index of 17.25-18.75 against 5.25-6.5 for Spurs. Total Goals for the game has been priced at 3.15-3.35, with Total Corners and Bookings offering spreads of 9.8-10.3 and 46-50 respectively.
Will Jose be able to prove he’s still special this weekend against his rival? Can Solskjaer find something resembling consistency? Make sure you check out all of our latest football spreads and betting markets for updates on every game this weekend, as well as updates from all around the world of sport.