Premier League Preview | Matchday 27
Premier League Matchday 27: Weekend Betting Preview
The Premier League's very first Winter Break has been and gone, and the pressure is clearly beginning to crack sides right the way through the league. Whilst the good times continue to flow for Jurgen Klopp's champions and Chris Wilder's European chasers, the rest of the league's teams have all come down with a bad case of inconsistency. There is just a 7 point gap between Arsenal in 10th and Chelsea in 4th, whilst the likes of Crystal Palace and even Newcastle have suddenly found themselves staring over their shoulders at a relegation scrap.
Jose Mourinho is beginning to find his swagger as Tottenham manager, and his return to Stamford Bridge to face off against former player Frank Lampard and his Chelsea side dominates this weekend's proceedings. Super Frankie Lampard has begun to cut something of a frustrated figure as the Blues Head Coach, publicly bemoaning a quiet January transfer window and overseeing a run of just one win in the past six games, both of which have coupled together to slightly derail Chelsea's top four hopes.
Chelsea vs. Spurs - Will Mourinho Pile On The Pain?
When Frank Lampard and co. beat Spurs 0-2 at The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on the 22nd December, it opened up a six point gap between the two sides and seemed to be a real page turner for the Blues' season. Roll forward two months however, and things are not looking too good for Chelsea. Their xG (Expected Goals) for the season is currently sat at +6.90 goals fewer than what they have managed, a haul that only Watford are currently behind, and go a long way in showing exactly where things are going wrong for the Blues.
For Spurs, there's plenty in their past few performances to suggest Jose Mourinho is just starting to get things right. Unbeaten in four since their loss against Liverpool, Spurs now come into this game just one point behind Chelsea and as a real favourite for the top four in our latest football markets. In comparison to Chelsea's +6.90 xG, Spurs come into the weekend with an xG of -6.52 goals better than what we would have expected to see them score so far this season.
Chelsea vs. Spurs - Odds & Spreads
Frank Lampard has bested Jose Mourinho both as Derby County and Chelsea manager, and actually comes into the weekend with favourite odds of 5/4 against Mourinho's 3/1 and a draw¿s 11/4.
Chelsea's tags as favourites translates to a Win Index of 14.75-16.25 in our latest spread markets against Spurs' 7.5-9. Total Goals for the game has been priced at 2.7-2.9 by our traders, with a First Match Goal timed at 33-36 minutes on the clock.
Burnley vs. Bournemouth - Can Eddie Howe Begin Looking Up Again?
Last weekends gritty win over Southampton was yet another Dyche masterclass on Premier League survival, taking his Burnley up to 11th on 34 points. Though the Clarets are actually in the red for xG scored and xGA (Expected Goals Against), they¿ve racked up -0.46 points more than we would have expected them to, showing off their ability to grind games and dig results out.
A run of 10 losses in 12 games between November and January saw Eddie Howe's Bournemouth side dragged into a relegation battle, however back to back wins against Brighton and Aston Villa have steered the Cherries somewhat away from the realms of crisis. Howe¿s side are currently operating with an xG of +3.61 goals fewer than what they should have scored and have registered an xG of over 2 in their last two games.
Burnley vs. Bournemouth - Odds & Spreads
Burnley are on a run of three wins and one draw in their past four games, and are our favourites with odds of 23/20 against Bournemouth's 12/5. A draw between the two sides is currently sandwiched in between at 23/10.
Sean Dyche and co.s' Win Index is currently priced at 13.25-14.75 against Bournemouth¿s 8.75-10.25, with both sides' First Goal Time priced at 50.5-53.5 and 58-61 minutes respectively for a Total Goals spread of 2.3-2.5.
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle - Three Points To Pull Away From Danger
Only two sides are still riding high in 2020 without a win in the league: Brighton and Hove Albion, and their rivals Crystal Palace. Roy Hodgson's side might just be beginning to show signs of their hesitancy in the transfer market, drawing 3 and losing 3 more in a row before this game kicks off. The Eagles are currently on 30 points, however things could certainly be worse for Hodgson and co. with their xPTS for the season currently -5.43 better than what we would expect to see them on.
Speaking of teams in danger of falling into a little slump, Steve Bruce and his Toon army are currently on a run of just 1 win in their past 8 games, with discontent amongst the faithful just starting to creep in at St James' again. Goals have been a real problem for Newcastle, scoring just 13 of their 24 goals from Open Play, with an xG that rises from -2.78 to +3.62 fewer than we would expect them to score.
Crystal Palace vs. Newcastle - Odds & Spreads
With both teams in pretty desperate need of a win here, we've made Crystal Palace our market favourites at 17/20. Newcastle are edged out by a draw as next favourites at 7/2 and 23/10 respectively. Hodgson's side are currently priced with a Win Index of 14.75-16.25 against Newcastle's 7.25-8.75, with Total Goals for the game available with a spread of 2-2.2 and Total Goal Minutes currently priced out at 103-113.
Sheffield United vs. Brighton - Pressure Mounting For Potter?
The fairytale continues for Chris Wilder's Sheffield United. The Blades have taken points in 19 of their 26 games during their debut season back in the big time, and are currently teetering on the verge of European football next season. Much has been said about United's defence this season, and their haul of just 24 goals conceded at an xGA of +9.44 is comfortably the best in the division currently.
Despite showing plenty of guts in their recent comebacks against West Ham and Watford, there's a sense of controlled panic about Brighton and Hove Albion recently. The Seagulls have been one of the league's more wasteful sides this season, running with an xG of +4.67 worse than what they have scored, and boasting +9.13 points fewer than we would have expected them to register, the second-worst tally of any side in the league currently.
Sheffield United vs. Brighton - Odds & Spreads
Chris Wilder's European chasers are once again our favourites for this fixture at 10/11, comfortably ahead of a draw at 23/10 and Brighton¿s odds of 10/3. Sheffield United currently boast a Win Index spread of 14.5-16 against Brighton's 7.5-9 heading into this weekend, with Total Goals across the ninety available at 2.3-2.5 and a First Match Goal timed at 38.5-41.5 minutes on the clock.
Southampton vs. Aston Villa - Big Three Points Up For Grabs
A relegation six-pointer in every sense of the word, Southampton's run of 7 wins from the end of November through to January saw them rise up to 9th in the table, however back to back losses has just pegged them back slightly. The key to Southampton's revival has been Danny Ings¿ one-man-mission to keep the Saints in the Premier League, scoring 15 league goals at an xG of -4.75, the best tally of any forward in the league at the moment.
Aston Villa have been a hard team to keep track of so far. Despite the fact that Jack Grealish remains their top scorer with just 7 goals throughout the season, Dean Smith's side's 34 goals remains the biggest haul of any side outside of the top 10 so far. On the flip side, whilst their defence has mustered up an xGA of +5.42 better than what they should have conceded, their 50 goals against is still the worst tally of any side in the league.
Southampton vs. Aston Villa - Odds & Spreads
Whilst Ralph Hassenhuttl might bemoan the pressures of playing at home, our traders have still made his side the favourites for this fixture with odds of 8/13. A draw just edges out Villa as the next favourite at 16/5 and 4/1 respectively. Southampton's tags as favourites has led to them being priced with a Win Index of 16.5-18 by our traders, some ways ahead of Villa's 6-7.25. Total Goals for the game has been priced at 2.95-3.15, with a First Match Goal priced at 31-34 minutes on the clock.
Leicester vs. Manchester City - Will Pep Stick It Out?
After a remarkable first half to their season, Leicester City have just started to run into a Wilfried Ndidi-shaped problem. Despite the fact that Rodgers and co. have only recorded one win in their previous five games, the inconsistencies of the teams chasing them has actually seen Leicester's gap in the top four open up to 10 points now, so no need to begin panicking just yet Leicester fans.
For Manchester City, given how their past couple weeks have gone, it's probably nice to have some football to concern themselves with. It's been a mixed season for the Cityzens, racking up the league's highest tally of goals with 67, but proving to be more wasteful than their previous campaigns with an xG of +2.66 more than they have managed to score. Pep Guardiola's side are even sat with +6.24 fewer points than we would have expected to see them register by this point in the season, again highlighting City¿s relative inconsistency so far.
Leicester vs. Manchester City - Odds & Spreads
Manchester City could really do with a win to lift some spirits around the Etihad, and we have odds on them as favourites priced at 8/11. A draw comes in marginally ahead of a home Leicester win at 3/1 and 10/3 as possible alternatives. Despite boasting home advantage, and a gap of just four points heading into the game, Leicester can only point to a Win Index spread of 6.75-8.25 against City's 15.5-17. Total Goals for the game has been priced at 3.1-3.3, with a First Goal Time of 30.5-33 minutes and Total Goal Minutes coming in at 160-170.
Manchester United vs. Watford - Has Solskjaer Found The Formula?
Consistency is king in the Premier League, but sadly Manchester United have pretty much been the exact opposite of that word throughout this season. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer's side have registered back-to-back wins just twice this season, with their run of three wins and three draws across November and December still proving to be the Red Devils' best form of the campaign. The league¿s bottom sides have proven to be United's achilles heel, losing to West Ham, Watford, Newcastle and Crystal Palace, as well as dropping points against Southampton and Villa.
Nigel Pearson has really added a steeliness to Watford¿s survival bid, however we're entering the period of the season where the Hornets really need to start adding some wins to their belt. Pearson's side have dropped points from winning positions in each of their last three games, helping to take their xPTS for the season up to +9.51 fewer than what they have registered. For context, if Watford had even half of the points they were expected to be on by now, they would be up in 15th.
Manchester United vs. Watford - Odds & Spreads
In what is looking like a potentially pivotal weekend for United, we¿ve made Ole's side clear favourites for the win with odds of 4/7 against Watford's 19/4 and a draw¿s 3/1. United come into this weekend with a Win Index spread of 16.75-18.25 against Watford¿s 5.75-7, with both sides priced with a First Goal Time of 43.5-46.5 and 62-65 minutes respectively. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.6-2.8, with Total Goal Minutes valued by our traders at 136-146.
Wolves vs. Norwich - Too Late To Stop The Drop?
One win in seven since the turn of the year has seen Wolves' push for European football stall ever so slightly, with Nuno¿s side drawing a blank in their last two games and widening the gap between themselves and the top four to five points now. Goals have been the problem for Wolves this season, with Adama Traore's 4 goals enough to see him come in as the side's second top scorer behind Raul Jimenez.
Norwich are running out of time to cling onto their Premier League status, however it certainly isn¿t through a lack of trying. The Canaries were narrowly edged out by Liverpool last time out, taking their xGA down to a pretty respectable -0.30 for the season. Daniel Farke¿s side remain seven points from safety however, making an already improbable escape from the drop look increasingly impossible.
Wolves vs. Norwich - Odds & Spreads
Nuno's Wolves side come into this game with some pretty heavy favourite odds of 8/15 in our latest Premier League markets. A draw between the two teams comes in at 16/5, with Norwich the outsider here at 5/1. Wolves come into this weekend with a Win Index spread of 17.5-18.75 against Norwich's 5-6.25, with Total Goals priced at 2.6-2.8 currently. Our traders have priced a Shirt Numbers spread at 44-47, with Total Corners coming in at 10.5-11.
Arsenal vs. Everton - Both Teams In The Hunt For Europe?
After two disastrous starts to the season, things finally look to be clicking for Arsenal and Everton. Following a run of four straight draws, Mikel Arteta finally put a good result in front of the feel good feeling around the Emirates since his appointment, thumping Newcastle in the Gunners' biggest win of the season. With the inconsistency around them, and the real upturn in form of his side, now might be the time for Mikel to begin looking up the table.
Just one loss in the past eleven games has helped fuel Everton¿s rise back up the table, sitting two points and one place above Arsenal. Despite the improvements on the pitch, the Toffees are still running with +4.85 points fewer than what we would expect to see them on, with their xGA of -5.34 more goals than they should have conceded contributing massively to that.
Arsenal vs. Everton - Odds & Spreads
In this battle between two European football chasers, we've singled out Arsenal as the favourites for the win with odds of 1/1. Everton just about edge out as the next favourite at 5/2 against a draw's odds of 13/5.
Mikel Arteta's Gunners side come into this weekend with a Win Index spread of 13.75-15.25 against Everton's 8.5-10. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.8-3, with both sides having a First Goal Time available at 47-50 and 55-58 minutes respectively.
Liverpool vs. West Ham - More Relegation Woes For West Ham?
What more can we actually say about Liverpool this season? The Reds have dropped points in one game out of their twenty-six so far this season, have racked up an xGA of +9.02 goals fewer than they should have conceded, and are running with an absurd xPTS tally of -20.88 better than what we would have expected to see from them. For context on their season, you could take away the 20 points extra they've acquired this season, and they would still be top of the table.
For West Ham, a combination of a daunting run of fixtures and some pretty sloppy performances since October have led to some pretty intense fears of relegation this season. The Hammers have conceded two goals or more in their past four games now, taking their tally of goals conceded across the season up to 45, the third worst in the entire division.
Liverpool vs. West Ham - Odds & Spreads
In what is easily our most one-sided collection of football fixed odds, Liverpool are, quite unsurprisingly, our favourites at 1/ 6. West Ham holding Liverpool to a draw is available at 13/2, with the most optimistic punt on an away Hammers win currently priced at 14/1.
Liverpool's Win Index has been given a spread of 21.5-22.5 against West Ham¿s 2-3, with Total Goals for the game currently priced at 3.45-3.65. Total Corners for the game has been priced at 10.8-11.3 by our traders, with Liverpool's first corner timed at 13-14.5 minutes on the clock.
Will Jose be able to prove he's still special this weekend against his former friend? Can Solskjaer find something that resembles a Champions League side? Make sure you check out all of our latest football spreads and betting markets for updates on every game this weekend, as well as updates from all around the world of sport.