Premier League Preview | Matchday 28
Premier League Matchday 28: Weekend Betting Preview
Super Frank Lampard made it three wins from three against former manager Jose Mourinho last week, in what was yet another surprising and dramatic turn in the race for Europe. It was a badly needed win for the Blues and a damaging loss for Tottenham, dropping the Lilywhites down to 6th and reopening a four point gap between the two sides. Manchester United made up some valuable ground in their hunt for the Champions League thanks to a Bruno Fernandes-inspired performance, taking their tally of points for the season up to 41 now, just three points behind 4th.
At the opposite end of the table, it was something of a week to forget for the teams fighting for survival with every side below 15th losing over the weekend; Brighton were the lowest place side to gain some ground in the table, drawing away at fortress Bramall Lane and host M23 rivals Crystal Palace this weekend. Palace’s win over Newcastle last week meant that the Seagulls are now the only side in the league without a win in 2020, setting up derby day on the south coast nicely.
Norwich vs. Leicester - Time Running Out For Farke
There’s a real sense of inevitability surrounding Norwich City these days. The Canaries have been rock bottom of the league since matchday 19 with 17 losses from their 27 games so far, conceding 51 goals so far in the process. Whilst Norwich play some genuinely exciting football at times, staying in games has become the number one problem for Daniel Farke to wade through; the Canaries have conceded 53 shots during the 61-75 minute mark, however that number jumps up to 93 between minutes 46-60 and up to 89 from minute 76 onwards.
Having been the real success story of 2019, Leicester have had a pretty mixed bag of results across 2020 so far. The Foxes only lost 4 times in their opening 19 games this season, however the absence of Wilfred Ndidi and Jamie Vardy’s barren spell in front of goal has seen them embark on a run of 3 losses across January and February alone. At this point, it’s only really the lack of consistency from their rivals that is keeping Leicester in the top four.
Norwich vs. Leicester - Odds & Spreads
Both these sides could really do with a win to restore some sort of consistency to their season, and we’ve made Leicester our favourites with odds of 3/ 4 in our latest Premier League markets. Norwich just fall behind a draw as the next favourite with odds of 16/5 and 3/1 respectively.
Daniel Farke’s side are currently priced with a Win Index spread of 7-8.5 in our markets, with Leicester much further ahead on 15.25-16.75. Total Goals for the game has been set at 2.9-3.1 by our traders, with a First Match Goal time of 31-34 minutes.
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace - The Biggest M23 Derby Yet?
Graham Potter’s Brighton seem to be taking the scenic route to survival this year. The Seagulls are without a win in seven, though they have only lost twice in that time. Brighton have played some nice football throughout the season, but have shown a real steeliness in their recent draws against West Ham, Watford and Sheffield United, coming from behind in their past four games to claim 4 potentially vital points.
Crystal Palace brought a run of three straight defeats to an end last weekend with a relatively convincing win against Newcastle. Their first win of 2020, it steered the Eagles to a 9 point cushion between them and the bottom three and has surely eased any immediate fears of relegation this year. With that being said, goals still remain an issue at Selhurst Park; Roy Hodgson’s side are the joint-lowest scoring side in the division and their xG (Expected Goal) tally of just +0.85 indicates a serious lack of creative opportunities for the side’s frontline.
Brighton vs. Crystal Palace - Odds & Spreads
Our traders have given the nod to Graham Potter’s side for this weekend’s M23 Derby, pricing the Seagulls with odds of 21/20 against Palace’s 11/4. These two sides have drawn 19 games between them this season and a draw can be found at 11/5 in our markets.
We’ve priced Brighton with a Win Index of 14-15.5 against Palace’s 8.25-9.75 in our spread markets, with Total Goals across the game available at 2.25-2.45 and First Goal Times of 51-54 and 60.5-63.5 minutes respectively. This weekend’s Brighton-Palace derby also falls under our special Bad Beat promotion. Back either of these sides to win and if they go onto lose, but crucially win on xG across the ninety minutes, we will completely refund your stake as a free bet!
Bournemouth vs. Chelsea - Inconsistencies At Both Ends Of The Table
After seemingly making a huge stride towards safety with back to back wins against Brighton and Aston Villa, Eddie Howe and Bournemouth have been dragged down into trouble with successive losses to Sheffield United and Burnley. So far this season, Bournemouth have managed 157 shots from inside the box, but only scored 15 times. For reference on how important that is, from their 19 shots inside the six yard zone, they’ve scored 6 times. It’s clear that finding the likes of Callum Wilson in more dangerous scenarios is going to be key to Eddie Howe’s survival bid.
Frank Lampard recently described Chelsea as being like a ‘broken record’, and it’s clear to see why. The Blues have consistently dominated games in the middle of the park, but creating chances and then finding the back of the net has cost them in more than one game so far this campaign. In terms of xG for the season, Chelsea are currently sat on +6.60 fewer goals scored than we would have expected to see in the net, contributing massively to their +7.29 xPTS (Expected Points) fewer than what they ‘should’ be on.
Bournemouth vs. Chelsea - Odds & Spreads
Chelsea have had their struggles with consistency this year, and took a bit of a thumping against Bayern Munich during the week, but we still have them priced as favourites here at 8/11. Bournemouth actually won at Stamford Bridge earlier this season, but they come into this game as the outsider with odds of 15/4 against a draw’s 11/4.
Chelsea head down to the Vitality Stadium with a Win Index spread of 15.75-17.25 against Bournemouth’s 6.5-8, with Total Goals for the game set at 2.65-2.85 by our traders. We’ve priced the First Match Goal at 34-37 minutes on the clock, with Total Goal Minutes available at 137-147.
Newcastle vs. Burnley - Trouble Brewing For Bruce?
You’re slowly starting to get the sense that all is not well with Newcastle. The Magpies are currently on a run of just 1 win from their past 9 games and have slipped down from 9th in the table to a far more precarious-looking 14th. Goals are the number one problem for Steve Bruce’s side, mustering the joint lowest amount of goals of any side in the division and not even managing to register an xG haul of more than 1 in their past 7 games.
Sean Dyche has, once again, given a masterful demonstration on the art of Premier League survival this season, heading into this weekend in 10th place on 37 points already. On a run of five straight games unbeaten, the frontline of Chris Wood, Ashley Barnes and James Rodriguez have contributed to 22 of Burnley’s 33 league goals this season, with all three strikers averaging over 2.0 shots per ninety.
Newcastle vs. Burnley - Odds & Spreads
In our tightest spread of odds in all this weekend’s action, we’ve just edged out Newcastle as our favourites on 8/5. Burnley come in next at 19/10, with a draw currently the outsider at 2/1. Only Arsenal, Everton and Leicester have been able to go to Saint James’ Park this season and come back with three points this campaign, and our traders are offering a Toon Win Index spread of 11.5-13 against Burnley’s 10.5-12. We have Total Goals for the game available at 2.15-2.35, with a First Goal Time of 39.5-42.5 minutes on the clock.
West Ham vs. Southampton - Must Win Game For Moyes?
West Ham are quickly falling into some serious crisis territory at this point. The Hammers have lost 5 out of their last 7 games, taking their total losses for the campaign up to 15, and come into the weekend nestled in the relegation zone. Game management has become the number one issue for Moyes’ men, dropping some seriously important points from winning positions against Brighton and Liverpool recently.
Southampton have got no such worries at their end, winning 8 of their last 14 games heading into the weekend; it continues to be a seriously impressive turnaround for Ralph Hassenhuttl’s side, who were in West Ham’s position just ten matches ago. Danny Ings has put himself back in the window for a possible England call up with his one man mission for survival this year, racking up 15 goals at an xG of -4.26 better than what we would have expected him to score; for reference, Southampton’s overall xG is currently at +5.77 worse than what they have been expected to score.
West Ham vs. Southampton - Odds & Spreads
In what is looking to be the crucial weekend for West Ham’s survival bid, we have them coming in just behind Southampton at 17/10 and 6/4 respectively. You can find odds on a draw some ways behind at 5/2. West Ham head back to the London Stadium with a Win Index spread of 10.75-12.25 against Southampton’s 11.5-13, with both sides set to score their First Match Goals at 50.5-53.5 and 49.5-52.5 minutes respectively in a Total Goals spread of 2.75-2.95.
Watford vs. Liverpool - Three Points In The Bag For Pearson
Watford’s Pearson-esque revival has taken a bit of a tank in recent times, with the Hornets losing 3 of their last 4 matches in the league. What’s become especially concerning for Nigel Pearson and co. is the fact that in all but one of those games they’ve been in the lead. Watford have spent 471 minutes so far this season +1 goal up against 355 minutes for Norwich, 325 for West Ham, 401 for Aston Villa and 341 for Bournemouth. It speaks volumes about Watford’s season that they come into this game behind all but one of those sides.
What more can we actually say about Liverpool this season? They remained unbeaten since losing at Manchester City in January last year. They have absolutely ripped apart the league this season, racking up an xPTS haul of -21.20 better than what they would have been expected to register, a tally that is now smaller than the gap between the Reds and Manchester City in second.
Watford vs. Liverpool - Odds & Spreads
Unsurprisingly, our 2019/20 Premier League champions are the favourites in our latest football odds, coming in at 4/9 against a draw’s 15/4 and Watford’s 11/2 pricing. Fortress Vicarage Road will need to stand tall this weekend, though our traders have only given Watford a Win Index spread of 4.5-5.75 against Liverpool’s 18.25-19.5. Total Goals for the game has been priced at 2.95-3.15, with a Total Goal Minutes available at 150-160.
Everton vs. Manchester United - Can Solskjaer Find Some Form?
Carlo Ancelotti’s Merseyside revolution might have come unstuck against Arsenal last weekend, but there’s no denying the Italian has done some terrific work during his time in Merseyside so far. They’ve dominated the xG in every one of their last four games, and come into this weekend against Manchester United just four points off the Europa League spots.
Manchester United, on the other hand, are a side that simply cannot buy anything resembling consistency. There have been plenty of false dawns this season, with the Red Devils picking up points against every side in the top 9 but losing to two of the sides in the relegation zone. United are currently on +8.05 points fewer than we would have expected to see, with the gap between them and the top four currently at 3 points still.
Everton vs. Manchester United - Odds & Spreads
In what is potentially a huge game in the race for European football for these two teams, we’ve just given the edge to Ancelotti’s men; their 6/4 odds are a little ahead of United’s 9/5 and a draw at 23/10. In the latest spreads by our traders, Everton come into this weekend with a Win Index of 11.5-13 against United’s 10.5-12. We have Total Goals for the game priced at 2.45-2.65, with a First Goal Time of 53-56 minutes and a Second Match Goal Time priced at 61.5-64.5 minutes.
Spurs vs. Wolves - Will Wolves Pile On More Pain For Jose?
Jose Mourinho looked to be on the cusp of really turning around Tottenham’s fortunes this season before two serious injuries to Harry Kane and Hueng Min Son hit the Lilywhites. Their xG for the game against Aston Villa prior to the Son injury was 3.72, however that number fell all the way down to 0.27 against Chelsea just a week later. It’s clear that finding the back of the net is going to be a tough ask for Jose’s side in the coming weeks.
With just one loss in their past six games, Wolves should be coming into the capital with plenty of confidence behind them. Nuno Espirito Santo’s side seem to have found the formula for turning those early season dropped points into far more positive-looking results and are now only five points off Champions League football next season.
Spurs vs. Wolves - Odds & Spreads
Even with their frontline difficulties, we’ve made Tottenham our favourites for this fixture with odds of 11/8 against Wolves’ 11/5 and a draw at 21/10.
Jose’s side have been priced with a Win Index of 12.25-13.75 against Wolves’ 9.75-11.25, with both sides set for a First Goal Time of 53.5-56.6 and 57.5-60.5 minutes respectively. These two sides have scored 82 goals between them this season, and we’ve set Total Goals for the game here at 2.3-2.5.
Will Brighton make a huge step towards safety against their arch-rivals?Whose side will you pick in this weekend’s action? Check out all of our Premier League spread betting and football odds ahead of another exciting week of Premier League football.