Premier League Preview | Matchday 6 | Betting Overview
Premier League Matchday 6: Weekend Betting Preview
Premier League leaders Liverpool will bid to maintain their 100% start to the season when the action resumes at the weekend. Jurgen Klopp’s men head to west London to take on a Chelsea team that thrashed Wolves 5-2 last time out. Elsewhere, defending Man City will hope to shake off their surprise defeat at the hands of Norwich and return to winning ways against a rejuvenated Watford side. There are some fascinating battles to look forward to, featuring teams at both ends of the table, and it promises to be another absorbing weekend.
Southampton v Bournemouth – South Coast Rivals Lock Horns
The action begins on Friday night as Southampton host Bournemouth in a south coast derby. Bournemouth reignited their season with a strong 3-1 win over Everton last weekend, while the Saints beat Sheff Utd 1-0 at Bramall Lane. Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men are unbeaten in their last three matches and that has seen them move level with Bournemouth in the table.
Southampton are the even money favourites to win this game, while the draw is priced at 11/4 and Bournemouth are 5/2. Both teams to score has paid off in all of Bournemouth’s matches so far this season, and it is 8/13 in this game. Total goals in the Premier League spread betting on this game is 2.8-3.0. Bournemouth have scored three goals from outside the box already this season, and that is a league high along with Spurs and Liverpool.
Leicester v Tottenham – Spurs Go Fox Hunting
Tottenham manager Mauricio Pochettino called a team meeting last week to address his side’s sluggish start to the season. Their response was emphatic. They blew Crystal Palace away in the first half, raced into a 4-0 lead and then closed out a comfortable victory. They have to contend with a midweek trip to Greece to take on Olympiakos before heading to the King Power to take on Leicester. Tottenham goalkeeper Hugo Lloris has made more saves than any other player this season, with 25, and he could be in for another busy afternoon.
The Foxes suffered their first defeat of the season at Old Trafford on Saturday. They are excellent going forwards, but they could find no way through the red wall and lost 1-0. Jamie Vardy and James Maddison will need to offer more if they are to breach the Spurs defence on Saturday.
Leicester lost home and away to Tottenham last season, and they are 2/1 underdogs in the Premier League odds on this game. Spurs have a narrow 0.15-0.35 Match Supremacy index over Leicester, and their Win Index is 12.5-14. Yet Leicester have made more tackles (114) than any other team so far this season, and they may fancy their chances of stopping the Londoners in their tracks.
Burnley v Norwich – Can Burnley Contain Pukki?
Norwich are in seventh heaven right now after beating Man City 3-2 at the weekend. Finnish sensation Teemu Pukki has banged in six goals in his opening five Premier League games, and young forward Todd Cantwell is also in great form. Norwich have leaked more goals than any other team in the league this season, but they are up to 13th in the table thanks to the flair and ambition of their attacking play.
Burnley have drawn two and lost two since picking up a promising 3-0 victory over Southampton on the opening weekend of the season. Ashley Barnes remains dangerous, but opponents have recently found a way to deal with Burnley’s long ball tactics.
The Clarets have chucked 368 long balls forward this season and played 118 crosses into the box, which leaves them second in the league in both metrics.
Norwich’s shaky defence will be in for a torrid afternoon at Turf Moor, but can Burnley contain Pukki and co? Burnley’s Win Index is 14-15.5, compared to 8.25-9.75 for Norwich, and total goals is price at 2.85-3.05. Norwich are the 5/2 outsiders in the fixed odds betting, while the draw is 11/4 and a home win is even money.
Everton v Sheffield United – Everton Boast 100% Home Record
Everton will be disappointed to have lost 3-1 away at Bournemouth last time out, but their home record is impeccable so far this season. They beat Watford 1-0 at Goodison Park on August 17, and they battled to a thrilling 3-2 victory over Wolves in their last home match. Richarlison scored a brace that day and he will be crucial to their chances of unlocking Sheff Utd’s three-man defence on Saturday.
The Blades picked up a 2-2 draw at Stamford Bridge in their last away game, but they then lost 1-0 at home to Southampton. That result saw them fall down to 15th in the table. Billy Sharp was sent off in the dying stages of the game, so he will be suspended for this trip to Merseyside and they will rely on Oliver McBurnie and David McGoldrick for goals. They have played more long balls than any other club this season (375), and they will hope that good old-fashioned football sees them through in this one. Sheff Utd are the 4/1 underdogs in this match and Everton are priced at 4/6 to win it, while the draw is 11/4. Everton have been given a 0.75-0.95 Supremacy Index over Chris Wilder’s men.
Man City v Watford – Guardiola Will Demand Emphatic Response
The Premier League champions slipped five points behind Liverpool after suffering a shock 3-2 defeat away at Norwich on Saturday. Manager Pep Guardiola will demand an emphatic response from his players. They have won all six league games against Watford since he took the reins, and they thumped the Hornets 6-0 in the FA Cup final in May, so it is easy to see why Man City are 1/10 favourites to win this one. They are priced at 10/11 to win it with a -2.5 handicap, showing just how dominant our traders expect them to be.
However, Watford will be in a buoyant mood after they battled back from a two-goal deficit to secure a 2-2 draw against Arsenal on Sunday. It came after the Hornets sacked manager Javi Gracia and replaced him with former coach Quique Sanchez Flores following an abysmal start to the season. They remain bottom of the table, but their prospects look a lot better after that performance against the Gunners. Yet they are still 25/1 underdogs in this game, and you can find odds of 10/11 on Watford +2.5 in the handicap betting. The Total Goals Index has been priced up at 3.9-4.1 in this game. Man City have scored 16 times in five games so far this season, which is the highest tally in the league, and they are also on top when it comes to passes and corners taken.
Newcastle v Brighton – Can Brighton Clip the Magpies’ Wings?
This could prove to be an early relegation six-pointer as 16th placed Brighton head up north to take on 18th placed Newcastle on Saturday. These teams have just one win apiece this season and they are among the favourites in the Premier League relegation odds. Brighton beat Watford 3-0 on the opening weekend, and they have since drawn two and lost two. Newcastle pulled off a stunning victory away at Tottenham, but they have suffered three defeats and drawn their other match.
The Magpies lost 3-1 away at Liverpool last time out, but they will fancy their chances of securing a stronger result in this game. However, the Seagulls can take inspiration from their strong recent record against Newcastle. They are unbeaten in the last four meetings between these clubs and they earned a 1-0 win on their last trip to St James’s Park. A three-man defence containing Lewis Dunk, Dan Burn and Adam Webster looks solid, and Brighton will try to hurt Newcastle on the break.
Newcastle’s Win Index is priced up at 11.75-13.25, whereas Brighton are 10.25-11.75. Newcastle are the narrow 6/4 favourites in the fixed-odds betting, while you can find 15/8 on Brighton if you fancy them to leave with all three points again.
You can take advantage of our exciting new promotion, the Bad Beat special, on this game. You back a team to win, they dominate the match and create tonnes of chances but somehow end up losing - it has happened to all of us and it doesn’t seem fair.
That's why Sporting Index Odds have created the Bad Beat special. If the team you bet on fails to win the game, but comes out on top for Expected Goals (xG), we will refund your stake. Newcastle have fared better than expected so far this season: their xG is 3.15, but they have actually scored four. They were also expected to concede 8.53 goals, but they have only conceded eight. Brighton’s xG for the season is 6.80, whereas they have only managed five, so fans will hope the Seagulls’ forwards find their shooting boots for this game.
Crystal Palace v Wolves – Wanderers Look to Secure First Win
Wolves finished seventh in the Premier League last season and began making ambitious noises about breaking into the top six. However, they have struggled to juggle Europa League commitments with the domestic competition, and they find themselves winless and 19th in the table. An embarrassing 5-2 defeat to Chelsea last time out piled the pressure on manager Nuno Espirito Santo, and he will be desperate for them to secure their first Premier League win of the season at Selhurst Park on Sunday.
However, Wolves have a Europa League clash on Thursday and then they have to take on an energetic Crystal Palace side. The Eagles have blown hot and cold this season, but they are sitting comfortably in mid-table, with two wins from five games. That includes a stunning win against Man Utd, but they were obliterated by Tottenham last time out. They have still only scored three times this season, despite an xG of 3.78, and they need a lot more from Christian Benteke and Jordan Ayew up front. Our traders expect an extremely tight clash, as Wolves are 13/8 to win it, Palace are 15/8 and the draw is 2/1.
West Ham v Manchester United – Haller Hoping to Hammer United
West Ham are unbeaten in four games since losing to Man City on the opening weekend, and that run of form has carried them up to eighth in the table. They held on for a 0-0 draw away at Aston Villa on Monday night, despite having a man sent off, and they beat Norwich 2-0 in their last home game. Man Utd returned to winning ways when a Marcus Rashford penalty handed them all three points against Leicester at the weekend. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s men have been really inconsistent so far this season, and they will need to be at their best to beat West Ham in this one.
It finished 3-1 to the Hammers when these teams went toe-to-toe at the London Stadium last season. They have since bolstered their attack with the exciting Sebastian Haller, and they are strong in the creative department thanks to the presence of Felipe Anderson. Yet Man Utd are the even money favourites in this game and West Ham are out at 5/2. Total goals is priced up at 2.85-3.05 in the spread betting.
Arsenal v Aston Villa – Can Emery Fix Gunners’ Defence?
Arsenal fans began to turn on manager Unai Emery on Sunday after the Gunners displayed comically inept defending to blow a two-goal lead away at Watford. The Arsenal defence kept trying to play out from the back, and it caused them all sorts of problems, so many supporters were questioning the Spaniard’s tactics, while his substitutions were disastrous. Emery will be desperate for his team to pick up a morale-boosting win against Aston Villa on Sunday, and they have a strong record at The Emirates of late.
Aston Villa climbed out of the relegation zone with that 0-0 draw against West Ham on Monday, but they have lost both away trips so far this season. They lead the league for blocks so far this season and Tyrone Mings has accounted for 10 of them by himself. He could be in for another busy afternoon against the lethal Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. The Gunners have an xG of 6.21 this season, but they have actually managed eight and that is largely because the Gabonese striker is so clinical. Arsenal are 4/11 to win this game, while Arsenal to win and both teams to score is priced at 6/4. Arsenal’s Win Index is 19.25-20.5, while Villa’s is just 3.75-5, suggesting that our traders anticipate a comfortable afternoon for the hosts.
Chelsea v Liverpool – Clash of the Titans
Liverpool face arguably their sternest test of the season when they travel to the capital to take on in-form Chelsea on Sunday. The Blues lost 4-0 to Man Utd in their opener, but they have drastically improved since then. It is remarkable to note that they have the second worst defensive record in the Premier League: they have conceded 11 goals in five games, with only Norwich (12) faring worse. Yet they have been devastating in front of goal recently, scoring 11 times. Young striker Tammy Abraham has scored seven of them, at an astonishing rate of one every 47 minutes, while Mason Mount has chipped in with another three.
Stopping that dynamic duo will be crucial to the Reds’ chances of winning this game. They have only conceded four goals so far this season, less than the 4.88 they were expected to concede, but they will need Virgil Van Dijk to be at his best if they are to contain Abraham. Liverpool’s star attacking triumvirate is in superb form right now, and the Reds have already banged in 15 goals this season.
That is 4.32 higher than their xG of 10.68, showing just how clinical Sadio Mané, Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino have been. Liverpool have played more crosses (135) than any other team this season, and that could cause problems for Chelsea's struggling backline.
Chelsea’s flurry of goals at Wolves has meant the Blues have scored 11 goals this season which is actually 1.41 above their xG (9.59), proving just how clinical the likes of Tammy Abraham and Mason Mount have been.
Our Bad Beat special also applies to this game, which could help you out if the team you back ends up misfiring. Our traders make Liverpool the slight favourites in this one, with a Match Supremacy Index of 045.-0.65. Their Win Index is 14.25-15.75, compared to 8-9.5 for the Blues. The fixed-odds betting is a lot more polarised, with Liverpool the odds-on favourites at 10/11, Chelsea the clear underdogs at 5/2 and the draw priced at 3/1.