Race for the White House 2020 - Sporting Index
Race for the White House 2020
On 3rd November 2020 Americans go to the polls (pandemic permitting) to determine whether the USA will see its 46th president take office, or keep the one it has for a further four years. Donald Trump’s victory in the 2016 presidential election was seen as quite the upset, with many bookmakers burned by the experience, some even having paid out early on his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton winning the race. This time out however the unspoken billionaire businessman is no longer an underdog.
Trump is currently favourite to win the next election, no matter who his rival turns out to be. But in such unprecedented times as those we’re living in right now, things can change very quickly. Will Trump secure a second term or could he be undone by an economy in freefall and a rising death toll from the Covid-19 pandemic?
In theory the Democratic nomination for presidential candidate has yet to be decided, however in reality there is nobody left to challenge frontrunner Joe Biden. The former Vice President to Barack Obama is hoping to become the oldest serving president of the United States should he successfully defeat his incumbent rival, but history is not on his side. Four of the past five presidents preceding Trump served the full two terms, highlighting the advantage held by a sitting president seeking re-election.
Of course, Biden himself is not without his own advantages and having served as part of the relatively popular Obama administration, benefits from association with the charismatic former president. He is also seen as a more centrist (by American standards) candidate than his closest rival for the Democratic nomination, Vermont senator Bernie Sanders. Up against such a polarising figure as Trump, occupying a more moderate centre ground could work in Biden’s favour though winning over more of the population isn’t enough by itself, as his predecessor Hillary Clinton found out.
If Biden is to succeed he will need to win the electoral college vote and that means taking back swing states that Trump picked up in 2016 such as Iowa, Ohio and Florida. Time will tell if Biden has enough to convince these voters to return to their instincts that twice returned former running mate Obama to the White House.
The Race To Date
Following Clinton’s shock defeat in the 2016 presidential race, where polling had consistently suggested she would emerge victorious, the Democrats took some time to lick their wounds. Unable to easily identify the specific issues that had led to the upset, the party became fractured and saw numerous power struggles between the centrists who had delivered electoral defeat and the progressives who saw the opportunity to reshape the party and American politics. This left the Democrats with a void in terms of leadership and consequently the field of candidates to become the next presidential nomination was as wide as it had ever been.
With more than 30 candidates throwing their hats into the ring the long and drawn out process to pick Clinton’s successor saw considerable swings in terms of who was seen as the party’s best hope. One year ago it was Sanders who had begun campaigning in the most positive fashion, though he was quickly overtaken in the Democratic nomination odds by Californian senator Kamala Harris, with the party seemingly keen to put forward another woman and deliver the US its first female president.
Harris’ popularity waned however and by August there was a new favourite with senator from Massachusetts Elizabeth Warren now leading the chase. By October Warren was the odds on favourite but of course the election was still over a year away and she was unable to sustain her charge. The bookies and pollsters tracking Biden had always considered him to be in with a chance though it wasn’t until last month that he raced into an unassailable lead. Despite a late rally from Sanders and a brief flirtation with the idea of putting forward their own billionaire businessman in the form of former New York mayor Michael Bloomberg, the conclusive results of Super Tuesday’s Presidential Primaries meant Biden could surely not be caught.
Sure enough, Bloomberg and Warren dropped out of the race leaving Biden to battle it out with Sanders, who clung to hope for a further month before finally dropping out himself on 8th April. In a field now reduced to one it’s not difficult to pick the likely winner. But picking the winner of the presidential election is another matter.
US Election 2020 – Who Wins? America Decides
Sporting Index have a long tradition of political betting markets, in fact did you know we first launched 28 years ago with a market for the 1992 UK general election? Back then we were revolutionising the world of spread betting and whilst we remain the undisputed market leaders for sports and political spread betting we now offer fixed odds betting too. That’s why for this coming US presidential election you’ll not only find spreads available, but you can now find odds on the next US president where at the time of writing Trump remains 10/11 favourite with Biden priced up at 6/5.
There are many twists and turns to come in this race so be sure to keep an eye on our blog for further US election coverage.