Super Bowl LIV | Odds & Spreads Preview
Super Bowl LIV - Kansas City Chiefs v San Francisco 49ers Betting Insights
The most devastating quarterback in the NFL will bid to outfox the league’s most ferocious defence when the Chiefs meet the 49ers at Super Bowl LIV. Patrick Mahomes was named NFL MVP last year after a string of sensational performances, and he has maintained that sparkling form this season. He delivered a heroic effort to inspire the Kansas City Chiefs to victory over the Tennessee Titans in the AFC Championship game. Yet Mahomes will need to operate at the peak of his considerable powers if he is to unlock an absolutely savage San Francisco defence on Sunday. Check out all our SuperBowl spreads and fixed-odds betting markets.
Kansas City Chiefs: Path to the Super Bowl
The Chiefs won their final six games of the regular season to finish top of the AFC West with a 12-4 record. They had the sixth best yards gained per game record in the league, and only four teams racked up more points than them. That was largely down to the strength of Mahomes’ passing game, as Kansas City rushed for just 98.1 yards per game. The Chiefs’ defence was pretty average. It allowed 349.6 yards per game, but only six teams gave up more points, and Mahomes regularly blew the opposition away.
Kansas City landed a divisional round clash with the Houston Texans and they found themselves 24-0 down by the end of the second quarter. They faced a shock elimination, but then Mahomes went into overdrive, becoming the first QB in NFL history to throw for more than 300 yards and at least five touchdowns in a postseason game, while he also put up 56 rushing yards. The Chiefs managed six consecutive touchdowns and eventually won 51-31.
Mahomes then threw for 294 yards and three passing touchdowns in the AFC Championship game to help Kansas City overcome a 10-0 deficit and beat the Tennessee Titans 35-24. They simply had too much firepower for Tennessee on the day, and afterwards Mahomes was full of confidence saying: “We’re not done yet. We’re going to get it.”
San Francisco 49ers: Path to the Super Bowl
The Niners enjoyed a magnificent regular season campaign. They allowed just 281.8 yards per game – the second best record in the league – and conceded 310 points. Most of them came when fatigue set in during December, but when they are at their best this defence is extremely solid.
They also had a superb offensive record, as they finished second in the NFL for points scored and fourth in yards gained. That was down to the strength of the running game, as only the Ravens rushed for more yards. The 49ers secured a 13-3 regular season record and ended up as the number on seed in the NFC.
They benefited from a two-week rest before their divisional round game against the Minnesota Vikings. A ferocious defence led by Nick Bosa, Dee Ford, Arik Armstead and DeForest Buckner was back to its best in a 27-10 win. They swarmed all over Kirk Cousins, setting up an eagerly anticipated clash with the Green Bay Packers.
Running back Raheem Mostert was the star of the show. He scored four touchdowns and ran for 220 yards on 29 carries in what amounted to the second best performance from a running back in NFL playoff history. That was enough to secure a 37-20 win over a Packers team led by the irrepressible Aaron Rodgers.
Super Bowl LIV: Key Battles
The Super Bowl pits Kansas City’s elite offence against San Francisco’s phenomenal defence, which should lead to an intriguing tactical battle. Mahomes is blessed with a golden arm and coach Andy Reid is a superb play-caller. Stopping the Chiefs’ QB is impossible. Defensive Rookie of the Year Bosa and former Kansas City star Ford will simply be tasked with limiting the threat he poses, and if they can pull it off then the Niners will win the game. Yet that is a big if. Richard Sherman and Sammy Watkins will also have a busy evening as they try to stop Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill.
The Chiefs will have their work cut out as they bid to derail San Francisco’s phenomenal running game. They managed to shut out Derrick Henry – the only man with more postseason rushing yards than Mostert – in their last game, but they will need to be even better to negate the threat of the Chiefs’ running back.
They may also need to find a way to stop George Kittle, who is possibly the best tight end in the league. QB Jimmy Garoppolo is not quite in the same elite bracket as Mahomes, but the 49ers have plenty of offensive weapons, and it will be interesting to see if coach Kyle Shanahan uses Kittle or simply deploys him as one of Mostert’s lead blockers.
The Super Bowl will also provide a fascinating battle between Shanahan and Reid. The 49ers could have dispensed with Shanahan after an unsuccessful two-year stint, but they kept the faith and their patience was rewarded. He masterminded a 13-win regular season and led his team to brilliant postseason victories over the Vikings and the Packers.
Shanahan will ensure that his team is exceptionally well-drilled ahead of this game, and he can be relied upon to deliver a great deal of creativity as he bids to lead the Niners to their first triumph since Steve Young’s crowning glory in 1995.
Reid ranks sixth in all-time NFL head coaching wins with 221, which the most of any NFL head coach without a Super Bowl victory. Two of his previous assistants have gone on to become head coaches and seized the Vincent Lombardi Trophy, but the wait goes on for Reid, so he will be desperate to get that monkey off his back and it will be exciting to see him try to outfox Shanahan.
Super Bowl LIV: Key Stats
• This will be the first time that the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers have ever met in a Super Bowl. Their last head-to-head clash came in September 2018, when the Chiefs beat the 49ers 38-27 in Kansas City, but the Niners have improved drastically since then.
• This will be the first time ever that two teams that wear red as their primary colour will meet in the Super Bowl.
• The head official will be Bill Vinovich. The Chiefs are 10-6 and San Francisco 6-6 in games officiated by Vinovich.
• This will be San Francisco’s seventh Super Bowl appearance. They are 5-1 in Super Bowl history and they have been involved in some of the most stirring triumphs ever witnessed, with legends like Jerry Rice and Joe Montana leading the charge.
• Garoppolo threw the ball just eight times in the NFC championship win over Green Bay.
• Bosa is the first 49ers rookie to deliver 3.0 sacks or more in his first postseason. Six different San Francisco players have recorded a sack during the playoffs. The Niners have also secured three interceptions already in the playoffs.
• Mostert is the only player in NFL history to producer more than 200 rushing yards and four touchdowns in a single postseason game. The 49ers’ 235.5 rushing yards per game in the postseason is a record in the Super Bowl era. Robbie Gould has also made five out of five field goal attempts, bolstering a strong offence.
• Kansas City have eclipsed 35 points in both of their playoff games so far this season. Patrick Mahomes has thrown eight touchdown passes. He has thrown 615 passing yards, including 321 in the divisional round, the second highest postseason tally in Kansas City’s history.
• The Chiefs have managed eight postseason sacks, including 4.0 from Frank Clark.
• The Chiefs became the first team in NFL history to win by more than 20 points after having trailing by 20-plus points in a playoff game when they faced the Titans.
• Their 24-point comeback was the fourth-largest in playoff history and the largest in the franchise’s history. They became the first team in 18 years to score 41 unanswered points in a playoff game.
• The Texans had been 5-0 for the season when leading by 14-plus points, but they were totally overwhelmed by the genius of Mahomes.
Who is the Favourite to win the Super Bowl?
The Kansas City Chiefs are the 4/5 favourites to win this game in the NFL odds, while the 49ers are narrow underdogs at 21/20. You can find 10/11 on Kansas City -1.5 or on San Francisco +1.5. There are also some alternative lines to check out: Kansas City +1.5 is 8/11 and Kansas City -4.5 is priced at 6/4, while San Francisco -1.5 is 27/25 and San Francisco +4.5 is 1/2.
The American Football spreads also make Kansas City the favourite for the Super Bowl. The Chiefs have a Match Supremacy Index of 0-2 over the Chiefs, meaning you can buy at 2 if you think they will win convincingly or sell at 0 if you think they will struggle. The Chiefs’ 100 Win Index is 50-56, while the 49ers’ is 44-50. You can also check out the Supremacy Plus Index, which sees the winner given 10 points and an extra point for each point they win by. The Chiefs have a 0-3 Supremacy spread in that market.
What Betting Markets are Available on the Super Bowl?
You can find a wealth of exciting Super Bowl betting options if you check out the NFL odds and the American Football spreads, including some great prop bet options. For example, Garoppolo threw the ball just eight times in the NFC championship win over Green Bay, but he is 28.5-30 for attempted passes in the Super Bowl.
Mahomes was the league MVP in 2018 and is the favourite to be Super Bowl MVP this weekend, with an MVP Index 42-48. That leaves him ahead of Garoppolo, who has been assigned a price of 31-37, and Mostert at 9-15. Mahomes missed two games this season with a knee injury. Will he be able to run against a tough Niners defence? His longest rush price is 12-15.