UK General Election Betting: One Week To Go

UK General Election: How Things Stand With One Week To Go

We are now just one week away from the general election and recent polls suggest that Labour are closing the gap on the Conservatives. Jeremy Corbyn has been busy lambasting Tory cuts to public services, arguing that they have left the country vulnerable to terrorism in the wake of Friday’s London Bridge atrocity. The polls also suggest that Labour have successfully wooed voters away from the Liberal Democrats, who have apparently seen their support dwindle. Yet the polls have often been more suspect than VAR in recent years, and anything could happen over the next seven days.

A Complicated Political Landscape

Brexit lies at the heart of this general election and that has skewed the political landscape in a number of intriguing ways. Staunch Labour supporters from leave voting communities are switching their allegiance towards the Tories, who have promised to “get Brexit done”. Labour has felt compelled to sit on the fence, and it is also at risk of losing remain supporters to the Lib Dems after they pledged to immediately revoke Article 50 if they were to win a majority. Meanwhile, Conservative supporters that oppose Brexit are starting to look elsewhere.

Yet Britain’s relationship with Europe is not the only issue on the table. The Conservatives have now been in power for nine years and Corbyn continues to attack their repeated cuts to public services. He has promised to reverse years of austerity by embarking upon an £83 billion spending spree that would expand the state to its largest size since World War II. Yet he plans to do so by raising taxes, particularly on businesses and high earners, which has upset many people.

The Tories have gleefully hit back by slamming Corbyn as a fantasist who will lead the country toward economic ruin. They say he cannot be trusted with the economy and he cannot be trusted to keep the country safe. Expect the war of words to ramp up in the week ahead.

The Lib Dems initially looked capable of muscling their way into contention, but their early momentum has fizzled out if the polls are to be believed. As unreliable as they have been in recent elections, they remain the best indicator available to us right now. They suggest that Jo Swinson has failed to win over the British public, with Labour snatching remain votes from them up and down the country.

The battle between the Lib Dems and Labour could become pivotal to the chances of the Tories gaining the majority they need to push Brexit through. The Brexit Party once seemed like a potential thorn in the Conservatives’ side, but Nigel Farage has now told his troops to stand down in all 317 constituencies won by the Tories in the 2017 election.

General Election 2019 Odds

Conservative leader Boris Johnson remains the heavy favourites to triumph at the upcoming general election. He is priced at 2/5 in the political betting, while Jeremy Corbyn is 5/2 to be Prime Minister after the election and Swinson is out at 50/1. You can find 2/5 on a Conservative majority government, 12/1 on a Conservative minority government and 14/1 on a Conservative-led coalition like the one we saw in 2010. The Tories are just 1/20 to gain the most seats, with Labour out at 12/1 and the Lib Dems at 100/1.

Our traders feel that a Labour majority is unlikely, as that outcome is priced at 20/1, but a Labour minority is 5/1 and a Labour-led coalition is 11/2. Swinson has ruled out a deal with both Labour and the Conservatives to form a new coalition government, but she may be swayed by Labour’s pledge to hold a second referendum on Brexit.

This is arguably the most important election of recent times and it has sparked a great deal of passion and vitriol from both ends of the political spectrum. A number of high-profile social media campaigns have been encouraging Brits to vote, with a particular focus on younger adults. Sporting Index is offering odds on voter turnout, with over 66.5% priced at 4/6 and under 66.5% at 11/10.

You can also bet on over/under totals for the number of seats each party will gain, with odds of 10/11 on each outcome. The Tories are pitched at 342.5 for over/under betting purposes, while Labour are 220.5 and the Lib Dems are now down to 18.5, while you can also can bet on over or under 42.5 seats for the Scottish National Party.

General Election 2019 Spread Betting

The Conservatives would need to secure 326 seats in order to seize the majority they so desperately crave, and our traders believe they can pull it off. They have pitched the Tories’ seat count at 338-344 in the political spread betting, allowing you to either buy at 344 if you think they will sweep up at the election or sell at 338 if you reckon they will struggle. Labour are pitched at 216-222, which would represent a significant reduction on the 262 seats they won in 2017.

The traders anticipate a slight increase in support for the Scottish National Party, who won 35 seats in 2017, down from 56 in the previous election. Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP are now priced at 44-46, which would leave them well ahead of the Lib Dems as the third largest party. Swinson’s single-minded approach to this campaign has inspired our traders to move her party’s seat quote by more than 20 seats. They now expect the Lib Dems to win only 19-23 seats, whereas it was more than 40 when the general election was first called. Among the smaller parties, Plaid Cymru are priced at 3.5-4.5 seats, while the Brexit Party are 1-2.5 and the Greens are 1-2.

All to Play For With One Week To Go

Our traders report a number of punters short selling on Labour and the Lib Dems, which has aided some of their decisions, but they are still braced for a surge from either party. They believe the remaining debates could still swing public opinion, while they point to uncertainties around the prospect of a coalition government. Former Prime Minister Harold Wilson coined the phrase "a week is a long time in politics" and it feels particularly apt right now. There is still plenty of time for Johnson or Corbyn to say something outrageous, or for one party's support to begin crumbling, so make sure you keep checking the political betting and the political spread betting as we brace ourselves for all the drama in the next seven days.

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