Juventus v Man United: First Goal Wins?

Juventus have already made the biggest statement of intent in Group H, winning 1-0 at Old Trafford with a performance that underlined the gulf in class that has emerged between these two traditional European giants. In doing so, they took full control of the group and will now look to complete a group stage `double' over the two-time Champions League winners.

Perhaps most striking about Juventus' performance was just how assured the Italian champions appeared throughout their matchday three triumph. The result propelled the Turin team to third-favourites on Sporting Index's Champions League Outright Index, and though Ronaldo was unable to score on his second return to Old Trafford, he was still a vital cog in the Bianconeri machine.

The winning goal, from Paulo Dybala, was fully illustrative of what United are sorely missing at present. With a tight game predicted beforehand, its unexpected earliness showed just how much better Juventus are at settling into games.

Psychologically, scoring the first goal in a Champions League match can be a massive advantage. With Juventus being the masters of holding out after opening the scoring, there is every reason to believe that the first goal will be of utmost importance on matchday four.

Form Guide - Juventus

Juventus' recent Serie A win against Cagliari, meant the Bianconeri had scored first in five out of their last six games.

That said, Juventus are not entirely infallible. As recently as 20th October, the team dropped two points at home after scoring first against Genoa, with the same game also marking the first time all season that Juventus had dropped points after leading at half-time. It was, however, an anomaly, with all of the other four half-time leads for Juventus in Serie A being followed up with victory.

In their own league, at least, Juventus are masters of the second half smash and grab. Prior to November¿s Serie A fixtures, the team had taken full points from each of the five occasions they had been level at the break (15/15).

Even conceding the first goal and trailing at the break seems to be no major issue for Juventus, given that they are one of just two teams (along with Napoli) to have come from behind at the break and win a Serie A game this season.

Form Guide - Man Utd

United almost seem to wait to concede first before roaring back to at least try and get a result. This is evidenced by the fact that United have conceded first in their last five matches, but have gone on to lose only once - in that Champions League matchday three defeat to Juventus.

Two home wins, an away draw at Chelsea, and an injury time victory at Bournemouth make up the other games in that sequence. However, with United also being without a clean sheet in their last five, a bit more ingenuity will be required against a team that could be one win away from winning Group H with two matches to spare.

Across all competitions, seven of United's last nine games have also seen both teams score, but with Juventus winning to nil in half of their last six, there is nothing to suggest that United can afford to ship a goal and hope to fight back. Ultimately, it is no surprise to see that Juventus are favourites to take the points yet again, and all but seal Group H in the process.

Beyond the Final Whistle

The nature of Dybala’s goal on matchday three showed just how much space United gave the Argentine hotshot in dangerous areas. Dybala was unmarked, as a deflection off Chris Smalling found its way into his path, and there can be no doubt that a repeat performance at the Allianz Stadium will see a much less conservative scoreline.

Also of particular concern was the way in which United’s heads dropped after shipping the first goal. Following Dybala’s strike, United offered little until the latter stages, at a time when Juventus reverted to emphasising self-preservation but still appeared threatening throughout.

No Champions League team in living memory has ever failed to qualify for the knockout stage after taking nine points from the first three matches. Juventus certainly have club history on their side, and in the six previous European campaigns that Juventus have entered as Italian champions (2012-17), they have never once lost at home in the group stage.

However, should Juventus somehow fail to overcome United so soon after winning at Old Trafford, they do at least have the luxury of their final home match immediately afterwards. Juventus host Valencia on 27th November, while United will also be at home to BSC Young Boys, in a match where anything other than three points is not an option.

Will Juventus do the double over United, or can the Red Devils roll back the years and get their revenge? Place your bets on our Juventus v Man Utd spreads at Sporting Index.

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